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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Gutter Boy said:
You are definitely right. I still don't support taking anyone who just arrives here. But we should have been more active over the years taking our quota of Afgans, Syrians and Iraqis from the aid camps in the countries neighbouring them.
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Hard to decide that before they get here. The asylum application can decide that. But first we need legal routes for the non whites.
 
LutonSpurs said:
They are allowed to arrive by legal routes, black and brown refugees are not. The Ukrainians can also go to France/Poland/Slovakia/Italy/Turkey but they choose the UK. They are treated better and the reason is because they are white and christian.
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What is a legal route and who arranges it?
 
Lilbaz said:
Rate changes are going to hurt. But so does inflation.
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The rate changes will have a devasting effect on the UK economy unless reversed. Way more so than inflation which is profit driven rather than wage driven anyway, and which will naturally taper off in '23 irrespective. Here's one I made earlier...
Rorschach said:
Interest rates are an interesting one. I've seen a few economists comment on this already, that raising rates is a pretty bad move but they will happen anyway. Central banks are raising the rates as it is the lever they pull to dampen consumer spending to control inflation. But inflation rates will fall next year anyway as current rates reflect pre and post war figures. So this is somewhat baked in and although prices will not drop much, if at all, inflation rates will as they are relative. So the blunt force instrument that is rate increases will really only serve to dampen economic activity further as worried householders spend less to compensate for mortgage and rent increases. This is going to drive economies into recession.
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Here's the excellently named Danny Blanchflower explaining it better than I could.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1588212860223635461
 
Rorschach said:
The rate changes will have a devasting effect on the UK economy unless reversed. Way more so than inflation which is profit driven rather than wage driven anyway, and which will naturally taper off in '23 irrespective. Here's one I made earlier...


Here's the excellently named Danny Blanchflower explaining it better than I could.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1588212860223635461
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Erdogan felt the same. Inflation is at 85% in Turkey.
 
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DTA said:
Um… nope Turkey is a completely different economy and scenario.
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America has a different economy, raised rates. Canada, the eu, australia, korea, india, indonesia... all raised rates.

Why is turkey different?
 
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Lilbaz said:
America has a different economy, raised rates. Canada, the eu, australia, korea, india, indonesia... all raised rates.

Why is turkey different?
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well for one thing Turkeys inflation was surging before the supply led inflation of the rest of the world. But there is also the fact that The Turkish economy has weak spots that are different from the Uk’s. The current account deficit has been a problem for Turkey for a long time, which had been papered over by the foreign investment flooding in, which it no longer is. Tourism took a major hit in covid, which was a major source of income. Turkey hosts 4 million refugees officially (unofficially it’s probably closer to 6million) in a country where in unemployment is relatively high. Construction is a major source of Turkish growth but even though labour cost are kept low the cost of materials have seen a huge increase. But construction is still being pushed as a way to promote growth. Lack of trust in the Turkish political system is also a major factor.

there is obviously more, but that should be enough for now.
 
DTA said:
well for one thing Turkeys inflation was surging before the supply led inflation of the rest of the world. But there is also the fact that The Turkish economy has weak spots that are different from the Uk’s. The current account deficit has been a problem for Turkey for a long time, which had been papered over by the foreign investment flooding in, which it no longer is. Tourism took a major hit in covid, which was a major source of income. Turkey hosts 4 million refugees officially (unofficially it’s probably closer to 6million) in a country where in unemployment is relatively high. Construction is a major source of Turkish growth but even though labour cost are kept low the cost of materials have seen a huge increase. But construction is still being pushed as a way to promote growth. Lack of trust in the Turkish political system is also a major factor.

there is obviously more, but that should be enough for now.
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How will that political mistrust manifest? Are there elections on the way?
 
Rorschach said:
How will that political mistrust manifest? Are there elections on the way?
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yep 2024. And that’s why you are seeing certain actions by Erdogan. But the political mistrust is more to do with the west’s view on him and the AKP rather than his internal perception (which I think is probably the lowest it has been… he may actually lose the next election, if the opposition is even semi, semi (I meant to say semi twice) competent… of which you can’t rely on (that’s another story, that angers me even more than Erdogan to be honest).

In fairness to Erdogan he has played a blinder in regards to the Ukraine invasion. He has managed to supply Ukrainian with weapons which have been absolutely crucial to repealing the Russians, given aid and other supplies shut the Dardanelles. Without completely alienating Russia, which has meant Turkey was able to broker the grain deal and negotiate the prisoner exchanges.
 
DTA said:
yep 2024. And that’s why you are seeing certain actions by Erdogan. But the political mistrust is more to do with the west’s view on him and the AKP rather than his internal perception (which I think is probably the lowest it has been… he may actually lose the next election, if the opposition is even semi, semi (I meant to say semi twice) competent… of which you can’t rely on (that’s another story, that angers me even more than Erdogan to be honest).

In fairness to Erdogan he has played a blinder in regards to the Ukraine invasion. He has managed to supply Ukrainian with weapons which have been absolutely crucial to repealing the Russians, given aid and other supplies shut the Dardanelles. Without completely alienating Russia, which has meant Turkey was able to broker the grain deal and negotiate the prisoner exchanges.
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The power balance between him and Putin has shifted further, it would seem to me. That he called Putin's bluff on recent grain shipments after the drone strike in Sevastopol shows that. That was a power move.
 
Rorschach said:
The power balance between him and Putin has shifted further, it would seem to me. That he called Putin's bluff on recent grain shipments after the drone strike in Sevastopol shows that. That was a power move.
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its interesting and to me at least fascinating, Turkey and Russia have been on opposing sides in Syria, Libya, Armenia and now Ukraine. While France for example have been on the Russian side in Libya and Armenia… and have given less help to Ukraine than Turkey.
 
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LutonSpurs said:
They are allowed to arrive by legal routes, black and brown refugees are not. The Ukrainians can also go to France/Poland/Slovakia/Italy/Turkey but they choose the UK. They are treated better and the reason is because they are white and christian.
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How many Ukrainian refugees have the UK taken in the last (say) year? And how many immigrants have come here in total in that time?
 
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