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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Logorrhea said:
Again, from Ireland I can confirm most Irish people are happy with the manner in which Varadkar and Coveney are dealing with the border issue. If you think they will change their stance as a result of pressure from within Ireland yo're going to be even more disappointed. It just wont happen.
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the survey actually says most are either happy or no opinion, just less people are happy as the last time it was asked.
 
r-u-s-x said:
When the other side of the coin is your imports are more expensive, when you are a net importer and the cost of imports are significant.
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The EU is one of the most expensive places in the world to buy anything from. I know for a fact that my imports will become cheaper and I suspect most others will too (barring some silly Trump-like trade war).
 
scaramanga said:
The EU is one of the most expensive places in the world to buy anything from. I know for a fact that my imports will become cheaper and I suspect most others will too (barring some silly Trump-like trade war).
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Food and oil will likely be more expensive with a falling pound, any luxury goods (wine / cars/ phones etc.) In my industry we charge in CHF and my previous company USD meaning everything will be more expensive.

Given the balance of payments its very unlikely that a falling pound will be a benefit and almost certainly wont be for the majority.
 
r-u-s-x said:
Food and oil will likely be more expensive with a falling pound, any luxury goods (wine / cars/ phones etc.) In my industry we charge in CHF and my previous company USD meaning everything will be more expensive.

Given the balance of payments its very unlikely that a falling pound will be a benefit and almost certainly wont be for the majority.
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EU food would increase in cost - I can't imagine there would be much demand for over-priced, heavily-subsidised food though. Oil might see an increase, but most of cost of fuel in the UK is manageable entirely by our own government.

I know that car and phone manufacturers don't set prices and convert to currency, they set the price point at whatever suits that country in terms of balancing quantity/brand. I'm sure there'll be a transition period but if the long term effect is Sterling balancing with the Euro (which I suspect it is) then prices will adjust to suit.

Does anyone really care about wine in that manner? There's plenty of dirt cheap wine from the new world for those who don't like wine. For me? I usually spend £20-30 on a bottle and hold on to it for a few years before drinking or around £30 to drink that night. If that turns into £33 then I'm not sure I can even bring myself to shrug about it.
 
scaramanga said:
EU food would increase in cost - I can't imagine there would be much demand for over-priced, heavily-subsidised food though. Oil might see an increase, but most of cost of fuel in the UK is manageable entirely by our own government.

I know that car and phone manufacturers don't set prices and convert to currency, they set the price point at whatever suits that country in terms of balancing quantity/brand. I'm sure there'll be a transition period but if the long term effect is Sterling balancing with the Euro (which I suspect it is) then prices will adjust to suit.

Does anyone really care about wine in that manner? There's plenty of dirt cheap wine from the new world for those who don't like wine. For me? I usually spend £20-30 on a bottle and hold on to it for a few years before drinking or around £30 to drink that night. If that turns into £33 then I'm not sure I can even bring myself to shrug about it.
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Are you basing your arguments on what you want to happen or what is the current plan / situation? Are you assuming we will have zero Tariffs on all imports and we can switch supply lines almost immediately? That does not seem likely.

Lots of exporters set their price and convert for currency, most online sources do for example. As I said in my industry its set to EUR and my previous it was USD this is not unusual and will have a big impact.

We could change the cost of fuel (tax) but that will mean a big hole in government revenue / spending, that does not negate the pain of a falling currency just moves it around. (government taxing bad I know but it doesn't negate the fact it will negatively effect most people).
 
r-u-s-x said:
Are you basing your arguments on what you want to happen or what is the current plan / situation? Are you assuming we will have zero Tariffs on all imports and we can switch supply lines almost immediately? That does not seem likely.

Lots of exporters set their price and convert for currency, most online sources do for example. As I said in my industry its set to EUR and my previous it was USD this is not unusual and will have a big impact.

We could change the cost of fuel (tax) but that will mean a big hole in government revenue / spending, that does not negate the pain of a falling currency just moves it around. (government taxing bad I know but it doesn't negate the fact it will negatively effect most people).
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I don't claim that any government of any flavour will be competent, so I can't guarantee it will happen.

I can't imagine there's much of a shortage of poorer countries wanting to sell us food. It won't be overnight, bit there will be far fewer barriers than we're used to from the bureaucrats over the channel.

I really do hope there is a large drop in both government revenue and spending - it's been on a rampant increase for three quarters of a century now and desperately need reigning in.
 
scaramanga said:
I don't claim that any government of any flavour will be competent, so I can't guarantee it will happen.

I can't imagine there's much of a shortage of poorer countries wanting to sell us food. It won't be overnight, bit there will be far fewer barriers than we're used to from the bureaucrats over the channel.

I really do hope there is a large drop in both government revenue and spending - it's been on a rampant increase for three quarters of a century now and desperately need reigning in.
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We have zero tariff food from Africa and its still cheaper to import from the EU (30% + vs 4% is food imports respectively), the EU (be it because of subsidies or not) produce cheap food, in the short to medium term a falling pound will be painful.

I know you want Government spending to drop, I wont argue about that. However this is about how a fall in the GBP will negatively effect people, specifically the rising cost of Oil, we cant negate the effect on fuel as you would be taking resource from the government and the pain will still be felt.

So back to the original point, a falling pound may be good for exporters but as we import a lot more there will be loads of people who would rather have a strong pound.
 
I'm surprised this idea from Lucas isn't generating more headlines, how is an all white female cabinet of remainers meant to heal the country and bring it together?
 
r-u-s-x said:
We have zero tariff food from Africa and its still cheaper to import from the EU (30% + vs 4% is food imports respectively), the EU (be it because of subsidies or not) produce cheap food, in the short to medium term a falling pound will be painful.

I know you want Government spending to drop, I wont argue about that. However this is about how a fall in the GBP will negatively effect people, specifically the rising cost of Oil, we cant negate the effect on fuel as you would be taking resource from the government and the pain will still be felt.

So back to the original point, a falling pound may be good for exporters but as we import a lot more there will be loads of people who would rather have a strong pound.
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What you're describing sounds a lot to me like a permanent trade deficit. That's not beneficial over a longer term. A weakened £ would help address that.
 
scaramanga said:
What you're describing sounds a lot to me like a permanent trade deficit. That's not beneficial over a longer term. A weakened £ would help address that.
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No I am not, there are many other ways of addressing the trade deficit. A fall in £ given current conditions would hurt more than it helps.
 
P.D. said:
I'm surprised this idea from Lucas isn't generating more headlines, how is an all white female cabinet of remainers meant to heal the country and bring it together?
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Her target audience are students and halfwits. Most don't care about or understand what's happening.
 
r-u-s-x said:
No I am not, there are many other ways of addressing the trade deficit. A fall in £ given current conditions would hurt more than it helps.
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A small drop in an over valued denomination is a very good way of beginning to even a trade deficit.
 
r-u-s-x said:
It is, but it is bad for imports and it will have a negative effect for more in the short to medium term
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It's only bad for imports if we can't find cheaper places to import from. Removing pointless legislation and tariffs should dwarf any currency fluctuations.
 
scaramanga said:
It's only bad for imports if we can't find cheaper places to import from. Removing pointless legislation and tariffs should dwarf any currency fluctuations.
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In the short to medium term are we able /planning on doing that...

Our largest import is fuels, can't get more efficient than now, any decrease in the £ raises the cost.

It will have a negative effect it will take longer than you think to change supply lines especially if we want the same quality.
 
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