Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[Rorschach]

And 64% didn't vote because of the contempt they hold the EU in

Rather apathy and ignorance.

 

[Baleforce]

And 64% didn't vote because of the contempt they hold the EU in

Yes, that’s the most logical conclusion, despite there being a party to vote for literally called the Brexit party.

 

[Gutter Boy]

If you add the nationalists, CUK and discount lab and con, it’s quite clear that remain parties are ahead.

If you add Tottenham, Chelsea and arsenal together, it's quite clear that London won the EPL this season

 

[scaramanga]

Are these elections as insignificant as the turn-out suggests?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using Fapatalk

Essentially, yes.

We vote for a party but it chooses the MPs it seats. We have no recourse over the MPs because they represent massive regions (the whole of the South East, in my case) and various parties represent the same areas.

Those MPs then go and form alliances that we didn't choose, making compromises that we didn't want, and lose the bureaucratic battle to MEPs voted in from elections we couldn't take part in.

Then we do what Germany wants.

 

[glasgowspur]

Are these elections as insignificant as the turn-out suggests?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using Fapatalk

Two grievance parties mobilised their voters, Brexit party and SNP, nobody else bothered.
Indicates sod all imo.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Labour can't position itself as a metropolitan party against the working classes. That would be an existential crisis they would never recover from

 

[Gutter Boy]

Two grievance parties mobilised their voters, Brexit party and SNP, nobody else bothered.
Indicates sod all imo.

I would say the lib dems did brilliant at bouncing back from oblivion and mobilising the remain vote - killing off change in the process. Them and the brexit party were the two single issue parties who unified the strongest EU feeling

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

Labour can't position itself as a metropolitan party against the working classes. That would be an existential crisis they would never recover from

So far, lining up with the Blairite revolution-betraying Kronstadt metropolitan elitist scum this morning and calling for a second referendum we have, erm, McDonnell and Abbott. Enemies of the workers both, clearly. Lickspittle running dogs.

 

[Gutter Boy]

There are working class people in leave voting constituencies who don't want a no-deal Brexit. In the 2016 referendum, Farage and the rest were never advocating no-deal as they are now.

For all the talk of fence sitting/lack of clarity, the one thing Labour have made clear consistently is that they will not have a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. Labour has tried to compromise and find a path between remain/no-deal and has been unable to get there, or get the message across.

There might be a bt more fence sitting yet until the Tories sort out their position with a new leader. But opposing a no-deal Boris Johnson Brexit should not be too hard to sell to Labour voters.

I think you'd be surprised how much leave was overtaken poverty as the biggest issue in working class areas. I was in Rotherham yesterday and it surprised even me

 

[scaramanga]

So now the main parties will be performing some electoral calculations on the back of last night, plus polling, plus target seats etc. For the Tories it seems simple; they must deliver Brexit this year or their vote will get completely destroyed. IMO, they have boxed themselves in so that the only Brexit they can deliver is a no-deal. I don't see the EU re-negotiating now, and any new leader can't just proceed with May's deal, otherwise all the voters who only want the 'one true Brexit' will go and vote for Farage.

IMO, that could then mean that Labour offer a 2nd referendum (no deal or remain, campaign for remain), but to do so they'd have to trigger and then win a General Election. IMO, there should be enough Tories who want to avoid a no-deal, Boris Johnson led Brexit that they'd bring the government down and trigger a General Election.

The complication for Labour comes from pro-Leave target seats. But if ardent leavers in those seats have no intention of backing Labour anyway, then there isn't much for Labour to lose.

We will see what they say when the dust settles I suppose.

I think your post massively underestimates the toxicity of Corbyn.

Your assumptions on defecting Conservative MPs might be correct if Labour had a leader that could understand that you can't just tax and punish business into the ground, then let the state take over. Even the most staunch remain Conservatives are unlikely to see a Corbyn government as anything other than the very worst of all outcomes. The scale is just so entirely different - some tough years (at worst) Vs the destruction of our entire economy.

The sensible next step is for the next PM to go to the EU and tell them "In 6 months time there will be a Singapore on your doorstep, stealing all your trade and making all your global initiatives worthless. You have until then to convince us otherwise, your time starts when I flip you off on my way out of the door."

 

[P.D.]

What is the message from the EU election? The Brexit Party will spin their result as a massive mandate. But is it? Appx a third of the nation voted. My guess is a large amount of hardened Leavers voted, I'm not so sure so many Remainers put their weight behind Lib Dems or Greens. Polling on Brexit itself says 56 remain to 44 leave. And if you take Liberals + Green + SNP all explicitly Remain parties, there is a majority. So how successful has the Brexit Party actually been?

What is clear is people are voting on Brexit itself. How could we possibly not have a referendum now?

A question for those who voted The Brexit Party, was your vote a vote for a No Deal exit?

I think you're clutching at straws here, it's quite evident the Lib Dems did well because they had a clear message on Brexit. Greens are probably a mix of brexit and the greater focus on climate change recently.

 

[Parklaner81]

I think you're clutching at straws here, it's quite evident the Lib Dems did well because they had a clear message on Brexit. Greens are probably a mix of brexit and the greater focus on climate change recently.

In addition to this, the BBC were reporting last night that turnout increased the most in pro-remain areas.

 

[Robspur12]

I think you're clutching at straws here, it's quite evident the Lib Dems did well because they had a clear message on Brexit. Greens are probably a mix of brexit and the greater focus on climate change recently.

For the European elections the Greens were clear on their pro remain stance as clear as UKIP were on leave. So if you voted Green, lib dem or change then you were essentially voting to remain.
There was definitely a majority for pro Remain from the election. This morning it was around 40% to. 34%

 

[SpurMeUp]

I think you're clutching at straws here, it's quite evident the Lib Dems did well because they had a clear message on Brexit. Greens are probably a mix of brexit and the greater focus on climate change recently.

Pprobably right. I'm just looking at a poster here who voted Labour who would vote Remain, my better half who didn't bother voting but would vote Remain. A tiny sample size.

I think there are the hardened Leavers. Those boxed into a corner who have a tribal loyality to Brexit. Rationale and logic about job losses or the lack of plan for a Brexit reality really don't make any difference. It's about the movement, about saying f off to the establishment. About feeling alligned with the yellow vets and or trump etc. It is a guess, but I think these motivated people voted and got behind the brexit party. Those who are more open to the arguements for and against leaving the EU, I'm not sure they were so motivated to vote, and I think most of them would vote remain if pushed. Simply becuase the logic for leaving does not add up. The issue is this:

• Soft exit = no one happy. Less sovrighity. Why bother?
• Hard exit = you beeing poorer. Serious job losses in the economy. Less money for roads, schools, NHS. Value of the pound lower, house prices probably lower. Who would want that? And why? For what in return? To say we're popularist?

Now the Leaver logic is a bit more nuanced. It's that we threaten no deal, and with that serious threat we end up with better EU exit terms. Anyone want to examine that premise? It is pretty flawed. Not least becuase May's deal didn't even go into the detail of our trading terms. It was just the exit agreement. How we deal with N. Irland. What payments we make. Anyone seeking to agree terms with the EU would have to more or less replicate May's deal first of all. The deal the ERG and most others rejected.

The problem, but also the peverse fun of the brexit pary, is they don't give a monkeys about such detail. It's two fingers to the establishment. Which I like. But its sticking two fingers up on the wrong issue. the brexit party could no more deliver a successful brexit than the existing lot. What needs addressing is the stagnation of UK politics. How to refresh our politics with innovation, taking forgotton communities with, in the current world. That is what we need to rebel for. And the brexit pary touch on it, but do it with a foundation of getting rid of progressive postive cooperation with Europe. Which is a backward step not progressive in the slightest. At least it keeps politics entertaining. Trump, Farage, Boris...people want to watch...

 

[Robspur12]

Pprobably right. I'm just looking at a poster here who voted Labour who would vote Remain, my better half who didn't bother voting but would vote Remain. A tiny sample size.

I think there are the hardened Leavers. Those boxed into a corner who have a tribal loyality to Brexit. Rationale and logic about job losses or the lack of plan for a Brexit reality really don't make any difference. It's about the movement, about saying f off to the establishment. About feeling alligned with the yellow vets and or trump etc. It is a guess, but I think these motivated people voted and got behind the brexit party. Those who are more open to the arguements for and against leaving the EU, I'm not sure they were so motivated to vote, and I think most of them would vote remain if pushed. Simply becuase the logic for leaving does not add up. The issue is this:

• Soft exit = no one happy. Less sovrighity. Why bother?
• Hard exit = you beeing poorer. Serious job losses in the economy. Less money for roads, schools, NHS. Value of the pound lower, house prices probably lower. Who would want that? And why? For what in return? To say we're popularist?

Now the Leaver logic is a bit more nuanced. It's that we threaten no deal, and with that serious threat we end up with better EU exit terms. Anyone want to examine that premise? It is pretty flawed. Not least becuase May's deal didn't even go into the detail of our trading terms. It was just the exit agreement. How we deal with N. Irland. What payments we make. Anyone seeking to agree terms with the EU would have to more or less replicate May's deal first of all. The deal the ERG and most others rejected.

The problem, but also the peverse fun of the brexit pary, is they don't give a monkeys about such detail. It's two fingers to the establishment. Which I like. But its sticking two fingers up on the wrong issue. the brexit party could no more deliver a successful brexit than the existing lot. What needs addressing is the stagnation of UK politics. How to refresh our politics with innovation, taking forgotton communities with, in the current world. That is what we need to rebel for. And the brexit pary touch on it, but do it with a foundation of getting rid of progressive postive cooperation with Europe. Which is a backward step not progressive in the slightest. At least it keeps politics entertaining. Trump, Farage, Boris...people want to watch...

What I find sickening is politicians still addressing their individual leave or remain agendas while big issues are happening in the country such as British Steel collapsing, high street brands falling by the way side and people losing their jobs while the nature of employment becoming a lot less secure. We need the politicians to get their heads out of their arses and look more widely across the country than just brexit as important a question as it is. Otherwise we will be writing off more communities.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

There are working class people in leave voting constituencies who don't want a no-deal Brexit. In the 2016 referendum, Farage and the rest were never advocating no-deal as they are now.

For all the talk of fence sitting/lack of clarity, the one thing Labour have made clear consistently is that they will not have a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. Labour has tried to compromise and find a path between remain/no-deal and has been unable to get there, or get the message across.

There might be a bt more fence sitting yet until the Tories sort out their position with a new leader. But opposing a no-deal Boris Johnson Brexit should not be too hard to sell to Labour voters.

In simplistic terms Labour probably are fence-sitting, and why not? The Tories currently hold the hot potato. Why take it off them when there is no definite indication that the people are swaying one way or another. Any government is dealing with a divided nation. Why put your weight behind a 2nd referendum as your GE ticket...win, have a 2nd vote, split down the middle and your back to square one..with hot potato.

The current withdrawal agreement is dead. The problem is any re-negotiation without the threat of no deal is fruitless.

They may get criticised, poor communication, unappealing leader etc but they're better of taking that critiscm and playing the long game as the Tories really are in a tough spot.

What we need is a unifier (any party will do) , the Churchill, Thatcher type figure that will makes us feel like we're the nuts, and anything is possible, and a trust that they will carry us through.

Thing is.....there is no-one.

 

[SpurMeUp]

In simplistic terms Labour probably are fence-sitting, and why not?

Becauses it appeals to no one. Leave and remain voters post their votes elsewhere. Sitting on the fence has devistated the 2 major parties. If these Euro results were replicated in a UK GE the Tory's would not have one MP!!! Sitting on the fence is dead. Is May's withdrawal agreement too?

The current withdrawal agreement is dead. The problem is any re-negotiation without the threat of no deal is fruitless.

Play this out...Boris goes to Brussels as the new PM. What happens next that is different to what May did? She threatened no deal as well. The EU will put the union of 27 nations over losing some trade with the UK. Why wouldn't they? In short, Boris goes to the EU, and has to deal with the same issues - N. Ireland, agreeing to pay to exit - or else the EU say no dice. Just to sit down with the EU and talk about a trade deal, Boris would have to include the same ingredients as May. He can spin differently, but it would not be much different.

Boris says fine, we're off Claude. Put that in your pipe. The EU will then say you can leave with no deal. It has a bigger implication for you the UK, than it does for our members. The EU will say we don't want no deal, but we have to protect Ireland our member and we can't give you a cake and eat it setup otherwise our members get worse trading terms than you get - outside the EU with the benifits but also free to trade with us. What does Boris' do next?

 

[Grays_1890]

I think you're clutching at straws here, it's quite evident the Lib Dems did well because they had a clear message on Brexit. Greens are probably a mix of brexit and the greater focus on climate change recently.

The conservative vote was leave their campaign was as only party to deliver Brexit, Labour's remainers defected stone Labour numbers from last night were probably very heavy leave AND there would be leave in the SNp vote

 

[glasgowspur]

I would say the lib dems did brilliant at bouncing back from oblivion and mobilising the remain vote - killing off change in the process. Them and the brexit party were the two single issue parties who unified the strongest EU feeling

I really don't think anyone can claim to have done brilliant, less than 40% bothered to vote in what could have been a landmark election.

 

[Hotshot-Tottenham]

You make some good points. The bolded bit, I would suggest that unity around Brexit is impossible right now. The only way I think you'd get close to it is if we left with no deal, it was a disaster, and then a big majority of people said "phuck this, just go back to how it was." Churchill could unify, but we had a mortal threat to unify against. With Brexit, everyone thinks that their side leads to prosperity whilst the other side leads to ruin, nobody can agree on any of it.

Problem is if we get a no deal and it’s a disaster do you really see the no dealers putting their hands up?

Nope. They’ll blame the Remainers.