Levy - End Of Season Letter

[Nezza]

or waiting till the final day of transfer windows before doing any vital deals

Give him his due, Levy is world class at that

 

[braineclipse]

Laudrup won them a trophy and left them in a position which wasn't exactly terrible.

Look I'm not saying we should be expecting anything more than 50%. If that is indeed the global average, then it's the average. But people are talking about Levy like he's a bit above the parapet here. He isn't fantastic. He's average if going by global standards. For someone to truly be fantastic they need to rise above that average.

I asked you about your number because I have no idea what the "global average" is and wanted to know the standard you used to judge him. By the rate managers get sacked I'm guessing the average of "successful hirings" is quite a bit lower than 50%.

Agreeing for the sake of argument that for someone to be truly fantastic they need to rise above that average I would first ask by how much? Would 60% be enough for example? Most likely small edges in a game of limited information I would think. Could Levy thus step up to fantastic by getting his next appointment right? After all if Levy gets the next one right and Swansea (your go to example) get the next one wrong their hit rates will be very similar from where I'm sitting.

However my main point would still be that with a sample size like this one and tremendous variance implied by a 50% average hit rate looking at the outcomes in hindsight as the metric to judge those appointments makes little sense. Which is why I return to "made sense at the time" even though that's obviously not something you think is good reasoning.

 

[billyiddo]

Because I as far as I can remember, our rivals budget also dwarfed us back then too so why does the rule apply that we have to be realistic now but didn't extend to 2011/12? I believe we spent a grand total of £5m on players that season.

having the 6th highest budget does not mean that we can't build ourselves a 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th place quality squad - just that it shouldn't be expected and the moments in which it all comes together (as it did in 11/12) we need to be in a position where we make the most of it - because as we saw in the two summer windows following that season the better players won't hang around if we don't succeed.

 

[billyiddo]

Just out of interest, what would your reaction had been had Redknapp quit Spurs the day Capello got fired? Would you have been upset with him or do you believe it would have been in the best interests of all parties as we could have found someone who was 100% focused on Spurs?

Funny you should ask as at the time i said on this very message board Redknapp either commits to us and gets a new contract (my prefered option at the time) or should quit as it could derail our season.

Anyway Ive spoke with you on here about him more than enough - if we don't know where each other stands on the subject now i guess we never will. Don't want to drag it out, just thought that was a question worth answering

 

[BrainOfLevy]

This ignores all the other things that a chairman has to do, such as building a new training facility or persuading regional/national government to invest in local infrastructure, or negotiating world-record transfer fees for star players.

He's excellent at all of that. Has it translated to consistently above par on pitch performances though?

 

[BrainOfLevy]

I asked you about your number because I have no idea what the "global average" is and wanted to know the standard you used to judge him. By the rate managers get sacked I'm guessing the average of "successful hirings" is quite a bit lower than 50%.

Agreeing for the sake of argument that for someone to be truly fantastic they need to rise above that average I would first ask by how much? Would 60% be enough for example? Most likely small edges in a game of limited information I would think. Could Levy thus step up to fantastic by getting his next appointment right? After all if Levy gets the next one right and Swansea (your go to example) get the next one wrong their hit rates will be very similar from where I'm sitting.

However my main point would still be that with a sample size like this one and tremendous variance implied by a 50% average hit rate looking at the outcomes in hindsight as the metric to judge those appointments makes little sense. Which is why I return to "made sense at the time" even though that's obviously not something you think is good reasoning.

What are you arguing here? Is Levy fantastic? Are we above average? Why do his failures get to be argued away as 'good choices at the time'? Because everyone else is getting it wrong too? That just means he's average too.

 

[jts1882]

In assessing the managers, is it fair to consider AVB and Sherwood failures?

As others have being saying, our budget and/or wages tend to put us around 5th or 6th. Finishing 5th and 6th is the par result. We are trying to get a manager who can get us performing above par in competition with other clubs who are also seeking an over-achieving manger. So AVB and Sherwood only failed in the sense they couldn't take us up a level despite our financial level. They didn't fail in the sense they under-performed. Taking managers since Jol, the only one who really under-performed was Ramos. The others, except for Redknapp, just weren't special enough to take us higher.

 

[Raziel]

In assessing the managers, is it fair to consider AVB and Sherwood failures?

As others have being saying, our budget and/or wages tend to put us around 5th or 6th. Finishing 5th and 6th is the par result. We are trying to get a manager who can get us performing above par in competition with other clubs who are also seeking an over-achieving manger. So AVB and Sherwood only failed in the sense they couldn't take us up a level despite our financial level. They didn't fail in the sense they under-performed. Taking managers since Jol, the only one who really under-performed was Ramos. The others, except for Redknapp, just weren't special enough to take us higher.

Almost zero failures, that's what people miss

Jol - took team from mid table dross to best of rest, bedded a lot of new players and vastly improved overall squad quality
Ramos - won the CC trophy, still our only trophy in last decade
Harry - easily most successful, got us playing well, good positions in league, CL QF, really threatening established order
AVB - Got us record PL points total, continued our profile rise, especially with the development of Bale
TS - steered the ship to end of season, kept us in Europe

Hardly a disaster in the lot, may have failed to take the final step, or taken advantage of certain moments, but no car crash type appointments.

And that is what people miss with Levy, at worst his appointments have maintained status, no "Moyes @United" type disasters with a 7 place drop in season.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Funny you should ask as at the time i said on this very message board Redknapp either commits to us and gets a new contract (my prefered option at the time) or should quit as it could derail our season.

Anyway Ive spoke with you on here about him more than enough - if we don't know where each other stands on the subject now i guess we never will. Don't want to drag it out, just thought that was a question worth answering

Fair enough. I'm fairly certain he didn't **** up on purpose, but at the time he probably just assumed 3rd was in the bag and didn't forsee Arsenal coming back the way they did, not that I'm excusing it btw.

 

[Jurgen the German]

having the 6th highest budget does not mean that we can't build ourselves a 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th place quality squad - just that it shouldn't be expected and the moments in which it all comes together (as it did in 11/12) we need to be in a position where we make the most of it - because as we saw in the two summer windows following that season the better players won't hang around if we don't succeed.

Well you could argue the exact same point for the following season in which Bale transformed into a superstar and the best player in the league, but we still only managed 5th place.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Almost zero failures, that's what people miss

Jol - took team from mid table dross to best of rest, bedded a lot of new players and vastly improved overall squad quality
Ramos - won the CC trophy, still our only trophy in last decade
Harry - easily most successful, got us playing well, good positions in league, CL QF, really threatening established order
AVB - Got us record PL points total, continued our profile rise, especially with the development of Bale
TS - steered the ship to end of season, kept us in Europe

Hardly a disaster in the lot, may have failed to take the final step, or taken advantage of certain moments, but no car crash type appointments.

And that is what people miss with Levy, at worst his appointments have maintained status, no "Moyes @United" type disasters with a 7 place drop in season.

Except the time we finished 11th?

There's no disasters but if they weren't incorrect appointments they wouldn't have to be gotten rid of so soon.

 

[milo]

Except the time we finished 11th?

There's no disasters but if they weren't incorrect appointments they wouldn't have to be gotten rid of so soon.

If we are defining a successful appointment as one where a manager stays in post more than two or three years, how many clubs are getting it right?

And of the recent departures, how many have gone for football reasons? Definitely Ramos. Jol I understand was a bit of that but there were also tensions around him talking to Saudi Sportswashing Machine about going there. Redknapp and AVB were both off field reasons.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

If we are defining a successful appointment as one where a manager stays in post more than two or three years, how many clubs are getting it right?

And of the recent departures, how many have gone for football reasons? Definitely Ramos. Jol I understand was a bit of that but there were also tensions around him talking to Saudi Sportswashing Machine about going there. Redknapp and AVB were both off field reasons.

It depends. I think Harry for example came to the end of his natural cycle at the club, he achieved what he was brought in to do and then some. So the right appointment and left at the right time. Ramos left for football reasons. Jol left for football reasons and AVB I would argue left because ultimately he just couldn't work wth Levy, and that should have been identified in the hiring process.

Managers leave for a number of reasons. Sometimes it's right that they go and they did a good job for a fairly long time before they get to the point where they should be gone (eg Jol) AVB on the other hand and Ramos left too soon because they were the wrong hires.

You're trying to make very black and white arguments using one piece of data to prove it. Looking at the individual circumstances behind each you can see that much more nuanced arguments can be made. I've still seen nothing that suggests Levy is an above average Chairman, beyond 'the global average would suggest that he is average'

 

[braineclipse]

Very good points jts and Raziel, I agree.

What are you arguing here? Is Levy fantastic? Are we above average? Why do his failures get to be argued away as 'good choices at the time'? Because everyone else is getting it wrong too? That just means he's average too.

I rate Levy very highly (I thought that much was obvious), even if I could be given my pick of anyone else I probably wouldn't want to see him replaced.

I thought I made it pretty clear why I think "made sense at the time" is a valid point in my previous post, and I didn't use "because everyone else is getting it wrong too" as my argumentation. That's a pretty massive misunderstanding. I usually have no problems going into extended discussions on stuff like this, but honestly I feel either we're just talking past each other, or I've completely failed to put together a coherent argument, or you've completely missed the point of my post.

If you don't mind perhaps you could re-read my post? If you're left with the same impression, that I'm saying "because everyone else is getting it wrong too", I suggest we just leave it and agree to disagree.

Your conclusion of "that just means he's average too" doesn't follow from your questions by the way.

 

[Caribbean Spurs]

He's excellent at all of that. Has it translated to consistently above par on pitch performances though?

Its not really the chairman's responsibility to produce above par on pitch performances. It is the chairman's job to give the manager the tools he needs to achieve that.

Let us take the example of Redknapp. Everyone says what a fantastic job Redknapp did. No, Redknapp did a good job at best. Don't forget that he had Bale and Modric (two of the best players in Europe if not the world) playing week in week out, supplemented by class acts such as King and VDV, and a deep, quality and flexible squad, and he managed to get us into the Champions league once, no cups, and couldn't not prevent us collapsing huge point advantages in the league as we approached the run in.

Levy put those players on a plate for Redknapp, so should have expected a very good return for his work. Did he get it? Probably not.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Very good points jts and Raziel, I agree.



I rate Levy very highly (I thought that much was obvious), even if I could be given my pick of anyone else I probably wouldn't want to see him replaced.

I thought I made it pretty clear why I think "made sense at the time" is a valid point in my previous post, and I didn't use "because everyone else is getting it wrong too" as my argumentation. That's a pretty massive misunderstanding. I usually have no problems going into extended discussions on stuff like this, but honestly I feel either we're just talking past each other, or I've completely failed to put together a coherent argument, or you've completely missed the point of my post.

If you don't mind perhaps you could re-read my post? If you're left with the same impression, that I'm saying "because everyone else is getting it wrong too", I suggest we just leave it and agree to disagree.

Your conclusion of "that just means he's average too" doesn't follow from your questions by the way.

I'm gonna need you to clarify or expand, because I don't see why the 'making sense at the time' appointments means he is anymore than average when they fail, and I don't understand why my conclusion doesn't follow from my questioning.

 

[Raziel]

You're trying to make very black and white arguments using one piece of data to prove it. Looking at the individual circumstances behind each you can see that much more nuanced arguments can be made. I've still seen nothing that suggests Levy is an above average Chairman, beyond 'the global average would suggest that he is average'

Again, if he's that average, people who are doing a better job should be fairly simple to name, in some numbers, as average would indicate middle of the pack. Who is the 8 or so better chairmen in England, the 25 or so in major European leagues?

I think you are confusing "could do better" with average, and it is not the sane thing.

 

[Rorschach]

Again, if he's that average, people who are doing a better job should be fairly simple to name, in some numbers, as average would indicate middle of the pack. Who is the 8 or so better chairmen in England, the 25 or so in major European leagues?

I think you are confusing "could do better" with average, and it is not the sane thing.

:-k

 

[harr1984]

It depends. I think Harry for example came to the end of his natural cycle at the club, he achieved what he was brought in to do and then some. So the right appointment and left at the right time. Ramos left for football reasons. Jol left for football reasons and AVB I would argue left because ultimately he just couldn't work wth Levy, and that should have been identified in the hiring process.

Managers leave for a number of reasons. Sometimes it's right that they go and they did a good job for a fairly long time before they get to the point where they should be gone (eg Jol) AVB on the other hand and Ramos left too soon because they were the wrong hires.

You're trying to make very black and white arguments using one piece of data to prove it. Looking at the individual circumstances behind each you can see that much more nuanced arguments can be made. I've still seen nothing that suggests Levy is an above average Chairman, beyond 'the global average would suggest that he is average'

Yup, Levy had been whinging to people at his golf club about AVB the season before he got sacked. Kind of ironic when he gets rid of managers for gobbing off....

 

[spurs' magna carter]

Now people, do you remember that day when a certain lot won the league at our place? I do, it was f@cking horrible.

Whilst walking out the pub that day if you had told me that in the next ten years we would:

- Finish in the top 6 in 7 of the next 10 seasons
- Win the league cup, beating the goons S/F and Chelsea in the final
- Reach the Q/F of the CL
- Have players as good if not better than Ginola (Berba, Modric, VdV and Bale)
- Have plans for a new stadium on the current site the same size as 'Ashburton Grove'
- The best training facility in the country if not Europe

I would've laughed in your f@cking face.

Yes Levy has taken the **** at times with this summer onwards being his last chance saloon but if you honestly think that if we HAD taken those chances of both Jan 2011 and Jan 2012 and finished 3rd above Arsenal that everything would be all honky dory then think again. Seriously, even the goons would've poured everything into getting their place back, heck, even if it was us that won the league that year (2012) Chelsea and Emirates Marketing Project would've just brushed aside with their wealth to put us back in our place and that's before the goons, Liverpool and Utd have outspent us. In fact even if we had spent our money on the likes of Hulk, Moutinho and Villa it wouldn't have taken the others long to catch up or over take us again.

We have no real plan?

Levy said, back in 2004, that the club needed a system whereby it didn't matter who was in charge, we needed a recruitment system and environmenmt whereby the players would be good enough not to rely solely on the manager and in having such players managers could walk in and out without having to completely dismantle the team, unless of course they were crap.

Just look at our last 10 league finishes

2004 - 2014: 9th, 5th, 5th, 11th, 8th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 6th​​

Comepare that to the previous 10 finishes

1994 - 2004: 7th, 8th, 10th, 14th, 11th, 10th, 12th, 9th, 10th, 14th​​

What's the above called again? Oh yeah that's it MID TABLE! Remember that term which was then so common with us?

This season has been a shambles but f@ck me I've seen this club in much worse! I think we have Daniel Levy to thank for that and whilst he isn't perfect he has us where we expect ourselves to be. I think the only thing I could fault him for so far is the lack of trophies but that would be it. Managers come and go, you want a Wenger or SAF? then fall asleep because the only place you'll find them is in your dreams.

Even if we got rid of Levy, who could do a better job ecpecially with the FFP?

And that Question isn't even a scare tatic!