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Independence...

scaramanga said:
41 of Labour's seats are up there, they'd find it very difficult indeed to form another government - at least one with any kind of majority.

If the Conservatives perform terribly then they could get past the post, but in all likelihood they'd need a really big help from the Lib Dems currently.
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To phrase that another way, just over 19% of Labour's seats are from up there.
 
milo said:
My recollection is that only two post war elections would have had different results without Scottish seats.
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That's because previous elections were won on comparatively large majorities.

The general consensus is that in the post-Blair world, elections will be fought over the centre ground and therefore more closely. Especially if the Lib Dems continue to do a good job of convincing people they're a real political party.

That would make those 40 seats very valuable indeed.
 
scaramanga said:
That's because previous elections were won on comparatively large majorities.

The general consensus is that in the post-Blair world, elections will be fought over the centre ground and therefore more closely. Especially if the Lib Dems continue to do a good job of convincing people they're a real political party.

That would make those 40 seats very valuable indeed.
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Cameron would have won a 9 seat majority at the last election.

On the centre ground point, I am not so sure. We have an electoral system designed for a two party contest but we are now in a multiparty age. It is very difficult to predict how this will affect election outcomes.
 
milo said:
Cameron would have won a 9 seat majority at the last election.

On the centre ground point, I am not so sure. We have an electoral system designed for a two party contest but we are now in a multiparty age. It is very difficult to predict how this will affect election outcomes.
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I suspect they'll all go much like the last. No clear winner with one relying on the student party to help form a government.
 
I think the weighting methods has to be part of the explanation.

What puzzled me is that we have seen a large swing to Yes in the YouGov polls (and now TNS) and no changing the gap in Panelbase polls over the same periods:

Panelbase 12-15 Aug 42 46 (-4)
Panelbase 2-4 Sept 44 48 (-4)

YouGov 12-15 Aug 38 51 (-13)
YouGov 2-5 Sept 47 45 (2)


YouGov shows a 15 point swing and Panelbase shows no change (just a firming of both votes). Panelbase seem to use more weighing, including a score based on intention to vote. Regardless of who is right, the absence of a swing in one poll and the large swing in another is puzzling and suggests a problem with the weighting. These have been developed for general elections and usually do poorly at low-turnout elections (local, regional and european). I suspect they are equally inappropriate for the Scottish referendum where a very high turnout is expected for a vote on an issue that is not strictly party-based.

P.S. In the unweighted YouGov polls there was a no lead of five points (Yes 44, No 49).
 
Why change it? The British people living in the UK would still comprise of a mix of English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish. I'm guessing on the numbers, but I suspect more people in England claim some Scottish or Irish decent than the total populations of Scotland and Ireland. So the Union Flag would continue to represent the people, the peoples who created the concept of Britain.

On the other hand, it would be a chance to represent Wales. For instance replace the blue background and add some yellow edging to represent the flag of St David. Better still add the Welsh dragon.
 
jts1882 said:
Why change it? The British people living in the UK would still comprise of a mix of English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish. I'm guessing on the numbers, but I suspect more people in England claim some Scottish or Irish decent than the total populations of Scotland and Ireland. So the Union Flag would continue to represent the people, the peoples who created the concept of Britain.

On the other hand, it would be a chance to represent Wales. For instance replace the blue background and add some yellow edging to represent the flag of St David. Better still add the Welsh dragon.
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A blue badger (rampant) on white.
 
Don't see why it has to change. It's just colours and shapes. Not as if we are using the McDonalds logo or something else with a copyright.
 
I'm pretty sure this was already raised a while back and someone showed a bunch of terrible suggestions on how the new look flag could look.

EDIT: I read it here. But it basically says it's not worth changing it, it's complicated and also it would cost a fortune and also Australia, NZ, Fiji and Hawaii all have the union jack on there flags etc.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25205017
 
Superhudd said:
Can we not just do away with the vote and chuck them out anyway.
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Honestly, I agree, I'm utterly sick of them and the pandering that's being done to them, pleading with them to sully themselves by doing us the honour of staying part of the UK.

It's like listening to a spoilt little brat. It's all about them, them, them. They want independence but want out pound, our army, our navy, our air force, our heath service, our trade links, our military contracts. Fugg em and deport them all of out England and Wales is they do vote Yes. They'll no longer be part of the EU so will have no right of residence here. And blow up the railway lines and roads that lead there and build another wall along the border.

Irreconcilable damage has been done now in my opinion and it's time we went our separate ways.
 
I'm loving the Yes vote to be honest.. Labour will become party #3 :ross:

It really is a case of cut your nose of to spite your face by them Scots.
 
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Much ado about nothing. I will be amazed if the Scots vote yes. It's typical of the type of issue where people state an intention in a poll, then when the real thing comes along they have second thoughts. Many yes voters will be persuaded by the offer of more devolved control and they may abstain from the vote. I think no voters will also be more motivated to vote in any case. We will all have to wait and see. Interesting times ahead, whatever the result.
 
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I think this sudden swing to the Yes is the masterplan to make sure the NO voters get out and vote personally. Its like all the newspapers sat round a table last week and agreed to lead with it on the front pages of the Sundays. haha
 
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