Feeling very 'flat' for the new season

[DubaiSpur]

Oh hear we go with the Harry 'as good as it gets' myopia...

I think we have to get some things straight about where we were at the end of last season before we talk about AVB.
Harry in his 3 and a half years with us took us to a level we haven’t seen (winning away in the San siro!) and also had us often playing some sublime football, whilst getting the PL basics and bread-and-butter right (see our very solid away record and hime banishing our commonly soft underbelly, again especially away from home.)
I look back over Harry’s tenure and I have some very fond memories, for which I will always be grateful to him for.

However, at the end of the last season to me it was clear his time was up and I think it was the right decision to let him go. For the following reasons:

Results:
Whether any extremely pro-Harry posters want to admit or not, last season was, ultimately, a BIG disappointment in terms of us missing out on 3rd place and then being edged out altogether from CL by Chelsea’s freak CL win. There were some things that we couldn’t control: Arsenal’s resurgence, Chelsea’s luck. But frankly, being 10 points clear of 4th in mid-February meant that we would have only had ourselves to blame had we not finished 3rd. That blame goes ultimately to the manager, who was not able to get us to win two games on the trot between mid-january and mid-april.
That is a woeful record whichever way you look at it. And our transfer policy this summer, which people are understandably frustrated about, would likely have been much easier if we could dangle instant CL footy over our rivals such as Arsenal or Chelsea. Think about that before you slag Levy off: 3rd place equals easy option for the likes of Hazard and then further recruits who would want to play with Hazard etc.

Squad use vs squad vales/wages:
As I’ve often said, Harry’s use of our first 14 pr so players was very good, however, we did start to have a big squad and due to the fact we no longer had a reserve league, there were many parts of the squad that become rusty, wasted, unfit or all three. Harry showed that he did NOT have the knowhow/skill/desire/whatever to utilise our squad more than he did. Often a player not in the favoured first 14 would not be given many chances to play (fine, as we had a winning formula AND we were winning!) but then when needed due to injury/suspension etc would be VERY ring-rusty and would not have other opportunities to gain the correct levels of fitness, sharpness, confidence etc to really make an impact on the first team when required. This is clearly part of what happened to the likes of Krancjar, Corluka, Pienaar, Bassong etc. On the flip side, when one of the firt-teamers got an injury, then all of a sudden we turned into mush (think when the likes of Bale, Lennon or Ade were not available) and hence whenever any of those players were injured they’d often be rushed back partly because there was not much of a plan B and/or their squad replacements were so rusty anyway as previously mentioned.
We are not a club that can afford to have players such as Pienaar, Corluka, Krancjar, Bentley, Bassong etc be on the wage bill but barely used. That situation had to change. Hand on heart did you REALLY think Harry would have been able to get better at this side of things? Do you think we would have been able to attract more players to challenge for the top 4 AND continue as we were with the underusing of our squad (some of those players HE bought btw)? Again, something had to give.
Two straight seasons with end-of-season meltdowns
You had to give Harry credit for the way he got us up there to third after our two early losses against the mancs, but then you have to then give him the criticism for the meltdown in the last 12 games or so – which happened the previous year as well. You have to ask, why was this happening YET AGAIN? Nobody can argue about fatigue, too many games etc (in fact, you couldn’t really argue it when it happened in 2010-11 as we had A LOT of time between the PL and CL games). Could we REALLY afford for that thing to happen yet again, what with Chelski and Arsenal knowing they had to strengthen and try to edge away from us again?

Transfer dealings:
This was always going to be the time when we would likely have to replace at least one of our important players, e.g. Modric. Unless we have the spending power of the mancs, Chelski or even Arsenal this was always going to be very very delicate. It needs a load of money spent on transfer fees/wages or perhaps careful scouting. I’m not having a dig a Harry here but do you honestly think that without CL footy Harry would have been able to pull this off with those constraints? If so, please give evidence, because I can only go by the types of players he often boasted about wanting to sign (Phil Neville, David Beckham etc) which leads me to believe Harry would NOT have been able to do this adequately (see also our continuous striker issues under him).

Player development:
Perhaps in line with the point above about our end-of-season meltdowns, how many players would probably say that Harry developed their game to go to another level? Perhaps Bale maybe? Kaboul? I think Harry is very good at getting the players to play instinctively and to do what comes naturally, but it was clear that when there was a need for an emphasis on team systems, shape and drilling the players on new formations, tactics etc Harry was not so good at developing players in this regard. Hence why I think our two end-of-season collapses happened as once the instinctive play patterns of our players were nullified they looked clueless as to what to do next (e.g. Everton away, QPR away, when often the opposition let us have the ball as we didn’t look like scoring with it). Again, I think in our situation we needed to be able to call upon this kind of resource to compete with our top 4 rivals who all have more money, better players, experience etc to call upon when competing with us for those top 4 spots. Arsenal compete with the others mostly because they have systems of player development throughout the club that counteract their financial lack of might…though that is waning imho…

Harry’s court case and then Harry’s England ‘issue’ (basically going AWOL):
It’s easy to forget how silly Harry’s evidence made him look in public (not being able to write better than a two-year old, not being able to fill in a team sheet). Do you think the best players would really want to join a club whose manager says things like that? Either it makes him look stupid or VERY crooked.
Also, he fact is when the England vacancy appeared our form hit the skids, even worse than the year before; this was partly to do with the England speculation. What did it say that Harry couldn’t see that him concentrating on Spurs was a win-win situation for him? Funny how he said that ‘it doesn’t bother the players, they just play’ but then later said that ‘if the players don’t know that the manager has security in his job, then they’ll let it get to them’.
Come on! How was he ever going to be kept in the job by the board with those kind of comments? I think he knew his time was up and was just concentrating on getting his compensation.

So all in all it was the right time for Harry to go this summer; those pining for him right now seem to have short memories, and whilst AVB is still to be proven as the correct successor, you can see why Levy and the board replaced Harry with him as he would like have certain traits that Harry lacked which might be more important in taking us forward at this stage:

- Keys ideas about formations and systems – which HAVE brought results in the past
- A methodology which would more likely involve utilising a larger part of the SQUAD
- A ‘name’ likely to attract some of the better players across Europe etc, when competing with our more moneyed top 4 rivals
- Contacts across Europe and a more likely ability to attract good but less known talent outside of the big leagues
- A likelihood of developing young players with plans for them in years to come

I for one am NOT feeling flat for this season, and if I did it wouldn’t be because I want my new manager sacked after two not outstanding but promising performances, it would be because we are NOT in the CL even though we really should have been and will likely struggle to again due to Chelsea and Arsenal strengthening to make sure we don't get that golden chance again for a while.

Time will tell if AVB is the answer, but for me, it will be fun finding out.

COYS

=D>

Brilliant post.

Waits expectantly for intellectual rejoinders from the pro-Harry intelligentsia.

 

[glorygloryeze]

I can see what you mean. But I'm guessing (and it's purely a guess) that Mick was referring to the final couple of lines in Joey's post where he says:

"I thought the reason many of our fans got Harry so badly wrong, is that they didn't compare him with other managers, but to some perfect ideal. To criticize AVB so far, you'd have to do the same."

Which I agree with. Harry's record was extremely impressive, and while he certainly had his negative aspects you can't deny that while he was manager of Spurs he done well. But I'm speaking on behalf of Mick, and could be completely wrong.

Nobody can deny that Harry did a good job (see my post further up).
However, many can see it was time to move on and were not comparing him to some ideal, but often comparing him to the Mourinhos, Wengers and SAFs of the football world unlike how Joey claimed. In fact, most Spurs managers over the years have been compared to those as often they have been the benchmarks to aspire to (especially Wenger with his emphasis on training/coaching over straight cash-purchasing of players, as well as being our local rival as well top 4 rival most likely to get caught).

I have other views on Joeys thoughful post, which I will get to in a mo....

 

[glorygloryeze]

So he fits with my example of not needing time. He improved on Hughes straightaway (see Hughes PPG and compare it with Mancinni in the season they shared.) I'm not saying a manager should go from 8th to 1st in a matter of a season. I'm saying that Premier League history shows us the top managers have an almost instant impact and don't need lots of time. I can't really think of a manager that came in and didn't make a positive initial impact (first half season) and go onto to take a club to new heights. I'm sure there are examples, but not many and nowhere near enough to prove they need time.

18 months is far too long to give AVB. I think most would agree with you, but that argument I honestly don't think has any sound basis. Contrary to popular fan and often media based, opinion, 3-6 months is a much better time frame. In that time he doesn't have to take us to higher levels than we've seen in recent years, but he does have to at least demonstrate he can keep us in and around those levels, if we are to give him further time to build. This is even more true at our club, as we already know the infastructure is there for top 6 finishes. As you said the problem is often with the club. But in our case that is probably true of finishing in the top 3, but it's hard to argue we haven't got enough in place to finish top 6, seeing we've done it 5 times in 7 years. Ironically the only times we failed were due to courting a new manager than giving him too much time, when he should have been replaced very early on despite the CC.

The idea of giving an inexperienced manager, who has already flopped in the Prem, 3 or 4 transfer windows isn't realistic in my opinion. If there are problems we have to address them early. That is the key, but will be hugely unpopular among most fans. As important as recognizing and backing a manager when we are on to a good thing, it's equally as important to recognize when things aren't going to work out, as soon as possible. Not giving a manager time is something the media (usually pundits who are fiends with crap managers) have really criticized chairman for over the years and thus the fans have seemingly bought into it. But it ignores the fact that backing a manager, when he has been making bad decisions, still cost a lot of money and can often lead to losing ground on rivals. I don't think we could recover from falling out of the chasing pack for some time, as we are already behind them in terms of financial resources.

If we are in 10th place in Jan, most of our fans will say AVB hasn't been given anywhere near enough time and needs to be backed to build a team. But I don't think history supports that argument at all and I don't think AVBs past has demonstrated he's talented in the transfer market or knows how to build a team. Not because he's failed to do these things, but he's only ever been a head coach and for no more than a year. So from that point of view, backing him in those circumstance is pure madness and our fans shouldn't support it, though I feel due to past media influence they will. But even the most ardent believer that he should be given this time would have to admit it's based on blind faith, simply due to his career history and Prem football history. Let's be honest, we don't have a clue what he's like in the transfer market, as in Portugal and Cheslea his input would have been limited and he was only in those job for a short space of time. Virtually all the players he had success with a Porto were already there and playing the same formation.

But to be honest, I don't think any of this will be an issue. Ramos looked like a plonker from day 1 (he played Lennon in a 3 man midfield in his match). AVB seems to be a good bloke and really isn't going to make radical changes on the playing front, which I think is a good thing. Hopefully this week we'll make some good signings and have another shot at the top 4. My posts aren't really so much about AVB, but more to do with the way fans think, which I believe to be very heavily influenced by a pundit driven media. In my opinion, we'll know if AVB or any manager is going to be a success within the first 6 months.
In fact in most cases we'll know in the first month.
I wish I'd had the guts to point out all the mental things Ramos did early on, whilst most we doing everything they could to find reasons to suggest he was superior to Jol. I will definitely do so this time with AVB, but to date I've seen no real reason to. I can understand some of the criticism so far, but have his "errors" really been any different to those made by Mourinho, Wenger or SAF so far this season? I thought the reason many of our fans got Harry so badly wrong, is that they didn't compare him with other managers, but to some perfect ideal. To criticize AVB so far, you'd have to do the same.

Overall I think this was a very incisive and thoughtful post, but I have issues with the bits i;ve bolded which i comment on below in order:

- Did not Ramos over a course of half a season improve on how Jol started that 2007-08 season? Unless AVB came in last season how can their (i.e. Harry and AVB's) PPG be compared than in over at least one season and perhaps Harry's averaged over time? TBH, given our new challenges this year (Modric going, Chelsea and Arsenal's spending) you could argue that any new manager be given more initial slack.
- How do we know that Jol was blameless in the disaterours start to the 2007-08 season? How do we know that the signes made in the summerm of 2007 were not actually ghe ones he wanted and then not quite the correct ones? When should Ramos have been replaced? Before the CC final? After the 5-1 win against Arsenal? Our first trophy in nearly a decade surely rightfully bought him time?
- Are you sure? Media influence will surely mean that most fans will back his sacking, especially the section of the media that is/was close to Redknapp. The media in this country will likely be one of AVB big obstacles in the Spurs job, at least initially
- Sorry this is plain wrong and unfair, imo. Ok so he plays a player out of position, Does that make him a plonker?? Does a plonker win a cup against sides like Arsenal and Chelsea? Ok some will point to Arsenal having a ‘second string’ side but actually that was a good side we played and totally humiliated. In fact it could be argued that most of the PL have watched that Ramos’ demolition of Wenger and followed his blueprint of counter-attacking them. Ramos may not have been suited to us in the long term (again a victim of our summer transfer dealings) but he was NOT a plonker! See our 5-1 collapse against Chelsea and our 5-2 collapse against Arsenal and perhaps that could be called plonker-like (not that Harry was a plonker, btw, but you get my drift)..
- I think this may be the case, but obviously injuries and other factors will likely play a part in any judgements
- Know in the first month? Hmmmm, not sure this would be fair or even correct; even by your own comments in the first month Ramos already looked like a plonker? Really?? I don't remember us having any stinkers in the first month...
- In terms of ‘finishing the job’ in big cup games against teams we often played well against but lost (I,e, Chelsea and Arsenal) Ramos WAS superior to Jol.
- TBF, most of those who did criticise Harry were comparing him to the likes of Mourinho, Wenger and SAF, even if those managers weren’t always named specifically in the discussions their methods were certainly referenced as they often form the PL/European benchmarks we aspire to as a club

 

[Hully]

Are there going to be an AVB signings before the window closes? All the signings we've made so far we're in discussions before he got the job.
It's all gone quiet since, I believe players have become more wary about joining us as CL football looks more doubtful.

 

[Mulletperm]

My concern is that Levy's hard stance with regard to transfers is putting off players and their agents.

 

[mick cooper]

Hmmm, not quite sure where Joey says that anywhere in his post. Making assumptions or simply not bothering to read the post?

exactly, just read the rejoinder he put in, a long winded epistle that addresses very few of the points raised.

Particularly as it appears to summarise on criticisms of people wantinf AVB sacked after 2 games, which not even I suggested. (I didn't want him in the first place, as I am not beguiled by the hype surrounding a single season of success in Portugal being the shining CV to get a job in the EPL.)

Apologies, the second post did attempt to address the points - by simply saying that they were all wrong. And the surprising tactic of saying HR wasn't a bad manager, but here are all of my reasons why he was really.

One mans meat, and all that

 

[ArcspacE]

=D>

Brilliant post.

Agreed

 

[mick cooper]

=D>

Brilliant post.

Waits expectantly for intellectual rejoinders from the pro-Harry intelligentsia.

Its a brilliant post as it supports your view that HR should have been sacked, not really too much to do with the OPs malaise, which is shared by many, because we support a club who just sacked a manager who achieved the highest league points per game of any previous managers we've had, and hired a one hit wonder, who failed at a club with the financial resources of a multi billionaire at their disposal.

Its hardly a response to Joeys post - its just a party political speech.

 

[BrainOfLevy]

edit:- hopefully this doesnt come across as confrontational mate..

you do realise you havent actually said anything here.

its pretty easy to say, what if this or what if that, give an opinion.....so for instance if someone we NEED is valued at not that much more than we are offering do we cave in or do we tell them to stick

Jurgen is stating an opinion on the matter, so am i. it would be easy to sit on the fence and say the error in anything and finish off with "its not clear cut, there are a multitude of variables"...what do YOU think> what would YOU prefer? fight for the economy and fairness and stand your ground? or just cave in and meet the valuation ?

Not at all mate, basically I just wrote my post in a bit of a rush and didn't explain where I was coming from properly.

Basically, I think Levy is doing absolutely the right thing. If we take all the deals we have been haggling over this summer, they could all add up to a 10 or 20 million pound swing. That's a number of added quality players we could buy with that money, and considering we don't have an endless pot of it we need to make the most of what we have.

Should we have signed Ade earlier? The deal reportedly stalled because of the pay off from Ade's City contract, which they should be paying. That's another 2 years of his contract. That could be anything from 2-4 million he felt he was entitled to. Do we just decide to pay that to get the deal done?

One of Madrid's initial offers for Modric was 27 million. Do we just accept that even though he's now gone for something like 33 rising to 38? Already that's potentially a 10-15 million swing. I could go on with the other deals we will be doing this week but I really think we do need to hold on and wait for the deals that work for us. With hindsight, we can all say that Levy was completely wrong to hold out for the most possible money for Berbatov in 2008 because we had no time to get replacements of equal quality. This time, we should have enough to be able to do so and we've got a better deal than we would have got had we caved earlier.

People say that Levy throws away 6 points every year by doing this, but I think he also correctly judges that other team's won't have completed their business either. He also judges that we have a good enough squad to be able to compete with Saudi Sportswashing Machine and West Brom. And he also judges that the money we save on all the individual deals allows us to strengthen our squad better with more players that will give us a better chance of accumulating more points throughout the season, and having those players for the long term.

 

[billyiddo]

some people seem to be taking this whole 'give AVB some time' thing far too seriously/to an extreme

most people that are calling for AVB to be given time to get things going aren't particularly saying to give him a free reign to get away with whatever he wants over an 18 month period - all i have personally heard is that if we show signs of developing our play/adapting to his style/tactics whatever but for some reason find ourselves a little off the pace then that is not reason to be getting rid after one season - if we're languishing around in mid table with no cohesion on the pitch and players not looking like they have a clue what they are meant to be doing then im sure that the argument of giving him some time will be void as it would be quite clear that time will not solve that issue.


as it happens i can already see signs on the pitch that we are moving in that direction and once we have a creative replacement for Modric and Adebayor gets some match fitness behind him then we will start to see results as well as progression - how far that will take us in our first season i couldn't say, but im not that worried about it tbh - if what i am hearing about the players and their reaction to the work AVB is doing on the training pitch is true then we should be looking at a good season

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Didn't Mancini finish fifth in his first season, losing out on a CL place despite spending bucketloads of oil money?
Not saying we should compare ourselves to City, just pointing out that he got the time he needed. In three seasons, he finished 5th, 3rd and then 1st.

In the PL, the main problem lies not with the managers, but with the clubs. You made a good point; managers shouldn't get endless amounts of time to prove themselves. However, in the PL, clubs are inclined to give them almost no time at all in relative terms. The average tenure of PL managers is roughly two years, which in itself has been skewed by two enormously successful and likely unique coaches (Wenger and Ferguson), and one moderately yet consistently successful one (Moyes) staying at their respective clubs for 26, 16 and 10 years respectively. Take them out, and the average tenure would likely drop by at least half, if not more. That means managers are getting a year, maybe even less, to implement their ideas and shape a club to their vision. Is that enough? When you look at the comparatively longer average tenure (17-18 months, on average, with significant variations in the different leagues)of managers at continental clubs (madhouses like Atletico Madrid and Palermo aside), I'd argue it isn't.

I mentioned average tenure, a key point. If people aren't fully convinced by AVB, that's fine. But I'd suggest judging him after, say, 18 months, if you want a clearer indication of how we might do, going forward. That would give him roughly a season and a half under his belt, plus about three to four transfer windows to shape his squad and roughly 14 months (give or take) to implement his philosophy in training. If, after that, we look terrible, by all means let him go. But judging him prematurely might turn out to be one of the biggest mistakes we ever make.

If we're not in direct danger of slipping into the bottom ten, then his job should be considered safe for at least the aforementioned time-frame, in my opinion.

*clappy smily* =D>

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

some people seem to be taking this whole 'give AVB some time' thing far too seriously/to an extreme

most people that are calling for AVB to be given time to get things going aren't particularly saying to give him a free reign to get away with whatever he wants over an 18 month period - all i have personally heard is that if we show signs of developing our play/adapting to his style/tactics whatever but for some reason find ourselves a little off the pace then that is not reason to be getting rid after one season - if we're languishing around in mid table with no cohesion on the pitch and players not looking like they have a clue what they are meant to be doing then im sure that the argument of giving him some time will be void as it would be quite clear that time will not solve that issue.


as it happens i can already see signs on the pitch that we are moving in that direction and once we have a creative replacement for Modric and Adebayor gets some match fitness behind him then we will start to see results as well as progression - how far that will take us in our first season i couldn't say, but im not that worried about it tbh - if what i am hearing about the players and their reaction to the work AVB is doing on the training pitch is true then we should be looking at a good season

Agreed, and its much my point of view.

There are two things at play IMO.

1) Harry leaving, should he/shouldnt he? Done to death and whether people agree or not it has happened.

2) AVB coming in. We have a new manager, what should a supporter do in this case?

For me any new manager should be given time to bed in their ideas. I think the quality of the squad is, frankly, irrelevant - a new manager does things in different ways, the players are on a steep learning curve, there is a settling in period, an adjusting period - it is a transitional time.

Hopefully its a period short lived, but not until a manager has had time to really get settled can you properly judge them IMO.

I do feel there is an element on this board very harshly judging AVB at this time, and I do wonder whether they would be acting in the same way if Harry had got the England job instead of the sack.

 

[Hully]

One of Madrid's initial offers for Modric was 27 million. Do we just accept that even though he's now gone for something like 33 rising to 38? Already that's potentially a 10-15 million swing. I could go on with the other deals we will be doing this week but I really think we do need to hold on and wait for the deals that work for us.

That's 33m euros, £29.2m. Not a 10 million swing at all. I'd have rather sold him for less weeks ago and had a lot more time to line up a replacement.

 

[Jordinho]

That's 33m euros, £29.2m. Not a 10 million swing at all. I'd have rather sold him for less weeks ago and had a lot more time to line up a replacement.

You don't think we could have been working on a replacement the whole time? Everything coming out regarding Moutinho make it sound like he would cost more than we got for Luka.

 

[ArcspacE]

You don't think we could have been working on a replacement the whole time?

And purposefully didn't have it in time for our first 2 games?

 

[marcospur2]

If we have been working on a replacement all this time then we need to look at how we do business.

 

[billyiddo]

That's 33m euros, £29.2m. Not a 10 million swing at all. I'd have rather sold him for less weeks ago and had a lot more time to line up a replacement.

we don't know the money involved so arguing the toss over the deal is rather pointless imv

 

[ArcspacE]

If we have been working on a replacement all this time then we need to look at how we do business.

Or what our scouts have been doing for 3 months

 

[Jordinho]

If we have been working on a replacement all this time then we need to look at how we do business.

There are two obvious solutions. Either pay more or go for lesser targets. Paying more seems to be out of the question. Problem is finding these cheaper players without alerting other clubs.

 

[marcospur2]

There are two obvious solutions. Either pay more or go for lesser targets. Paying more seems to be out of the question. Problem is finding these cheaper players without alerting other clubs.

The thing is of all our nearest rivals I believe we are the least prepared, and have the most obvious squad weaknesses. That we have a new manager trying to implement a new approach only exacerbates the problem. Don't get me wrong I am not trying to sound negative, but the problems we have are about us and our preparation. Other key clubs have done good business, and not all at extortionate costs. No one could have envisaged the situation AVB would be in now, even accepting the nuances and complexities of the market. The other issue may be we simply do not know what we want, or that AVB may have overestimated Levy and underestimated how difficult our transfer approach would be (which is not new is it - it wasn't just a Harry problem).