Do you know anything about risk analysis? Reading this I suppose not.
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Do you know anything about risk analysis? Reading this I suppose not.
Finney Is Back
Luka Modric
I will leave to the others on this forum to judge that....
Any chance you can answer which of those 8 potential transfers I listed that we could've wrapped up last month?
I also notice that you avoid many of my other questions..... I don't know about you making a decent Risk Analyst Andy - but it's clear that you'd make a fantastic MP!
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Superhudd
Simon Davies
Just on the flip side. There are probably 30m players available, they don't need to have come from those that actually left there clubs.
I dare say if you offered 30 large for Moura we would have got him, offered 30 for Lavetzi we would have got him. Offered 30 for Cuardado we would have got him. Offered 30m for Schneiderlin.. we probably have got him. Even offered 30m for Dzeko.. I think we may have got him.
Just saying there are 30m players that we could have got. Whether you think they are worth 30 doesn't matter, if the club was to offer 30 then that is all that matters.
Finney Is Back
Luka Modric
I used those players as there was a definite market for them so therefore their availability and transfer fees were not speculative. The players you listed may or may not have been sold by their club's for £30 million - and if we had agreed such a fee then we may well have seen other clubs interested at that level.
To address each of the players you suggested:
Lavetzi?... I assume you mean Ezequiel Lavezzi who is reportedly earning 7.5 million Euros a year at PSG? How would we persuade him to give this up to move to the 6th placed club in the PL?
Cuadrado - isn't he wanted by Man Utd and Barcelona with Fiorentina not prepared to sell him?
Lucas Moura cost PSG £44 million and he has failed to live up to that transfer fee - despite playing for a far stronger club, in a far weaker league.... Would you want us to put all our eggs in one basket and then choose such a player to spend our money on? Surely if we are taking a gamle on a player then we are better off sticking to our current £7 million to £17 million sort of transfer fee?
I think you're probably right on the other two, but I'm not convinced that Dzeko would agree to a Spurs switch - which leaves Schnedierlin.... Who I'm not 100% convinced that Southampton would've sold to us last summer even for £30 million.
I also don't think our club would have a problem in paying £30 million for the 'right' player, after all we have already spent an amount quite close to that for both Lamela and Soldado - and look how well both of those have turned out so far!.... Can we afford to make any more expensive mistakes?
I think the point that I am trying to make is that if for any bona-fide superstars who are pretty much a 'sure-thing' in terms of being likely to be a success become available, then we are going to have competition to sign them from a number of clubs who are more attractive to the player than we are. This leaves us having to take something of a gamble on a player who is still developing or has failed at his current club for one reason or another. If we are taking a gamble then surely the price we pay has to reflect that the signing is something of a gamble?
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Bullet
Andy Thompson
Cheers for the discussion guys, good to see it hasn't descended into war and name calling (yet).
It all hinges on whether this mythical big name player is a success or not. Clearly if they turn out to be awesome we would all laud the signing, if they turn out to be cack we would be Royally screwed, as a risk analyst would say.
One small thing is that we would theoretically mitigate against failure by only signing players aged 26 or younger on a 4+2 contract, so if they are good we can keep them, if they are cack we still have some resale value so the total lost would not be the full price, but something in the region of £10m to £20m loss.
I'm not agreeing with Andy really, I'm just interested in the debate. I don't think we can buy from the very top talent pool any more, but we could buy from near the top; those players out of favour or nearing the end of contract or pushed out of a top team like VdV at Real Madrid.
It all hinges on whether this mythical big name player is a success or not. Clearly if they turn out to be awesome we would all laud the signing, if they turn out to be cack we would be Royally screwed, as a risk analyst would say.
One small thing is that we would theoretically mitigate against failure by only signing players aged 26 or younger on a 4+2 contract, so if they are good we can keep them, if they are cack we still have some resale value so the total lost would not be the full price, but something in the region of £10m to £20m loss.
I'm not agreeing with Andy really, I'm just interested in the debate. I don't think we can buy from the very top talent pool any more, but we could buy from near the top; those players out of favour or nearing the end of contract or pushed out of a top team like VdV at Real Madrid.
milo
Jack L. Jones
I know a little bit about risk analysis and risk management. I'd be fascinated reading a post from you where you look the various options using these methodologies.
I discounted them because they follow my model more closely.
Let's have a look at this summer signings of Athletico Madrid: Mario Mandzukic (28), Jan Oblak (21), Jesus Gamez (29), Raul Jimenez (23), Antoine Griezmann (23), Miguel Moya (30), Cristian Ansaldi (27)....average age 26. Based on these signings they don't appear to have the model of a club you described above.
Athletico are also known to maintain a smallish and well focused squad and do very well at it. They are not in the top 10 richest clubs, yet they signed a world class player under the noses of everybody in Europe. I'm specifically here looking at the signing of Antoine Griezmann (who cost only £24m this summer). They also signed Falcao for Euro 50m (if 24m isn't enough for you!).
However looks like my idea is not workable.
Nice idea, I've often wondered if they really do that at Spurs however I can't imagine Redknapp running a Monte Carlo analysis whilst talking to an agent on his mobile!
Superhudd
Simon Davies
I used those players as there was a definite market for them so therefore their availability and transfer fees were not speculative. The players you listed may or may not have been sold by their club's for £30 million - and if we had agreed such a fee then we may well have seen other clubs interested at that level.
To address each of the players you suggested:
Lavetzi?... I assume you mean Ezequiel Lavezzi who is reportedly earning 7.5 million Euros a year at PSG? How would we persuade him to give this up to move to the 6th placed club in the PL?
Cuadrado - isn't he wanted by Man Utd and Barcelona with Fiorentina not prepared to sell him?
lol at correcting the spelling
Anyway.. Lavezzi has seen his wage reduce over the past two years due to the tax laws in France. I dare say also that PSG would be also willing to pay some of the wages too, which therefore would put him under Adebayor in terms of wage. Cuardado has a value.. something no club is willing to match yet and as like you suggest.. Utd and Barcelona don't need to take gambles, they can purchase the polished article.
Lucas Moura cost PSG £44 million and he has failed to live up to that transfer fee - despite playing for a far stronger club, in a far weaker league.... Would you want us to put all our eggs in one basket and then choose such a player to spend our money on? Surely if we are taking a gamle on a player then we are better off sticking to our current £7 million to £17 million sort of transfer fee?
We did exactly that with Lamela. Why change. Anyway, I'd expect it to be a year loan with a 30m attached fee.
I think you're probably right on the other two, but I'm not convinced that Dzeko would agree to a Spurs switch - which leaves Schnedierlin.... Who I'm not 100% convinced that Southampton would've sold to us last summer even for £30 million.
Southampton would have sold him for 30m.. like every player they sold they had a price and Levy simply was not matching it because of what you suggest £7m - £17m. The same happened with Moutinho. History repeating itself. I think city would have been all to happy to sell Dzeko and bought Falcao and kept Negrado IMO.. Oh look another near 30m player could have gotten.. Negrado.
I also don't think our club would have a problem in paying £30 million for the 'right' player, after all we have already spent an amount quite close to that for both Lamela and Soldado - and look how well both of those have turned out so far!.... Can we afford to make any more expensive mistakes?
What do you mean look how they have turned out.. surely your not down on Levys transfer policy. Personally I think that both players are quality.. Lamela I still have high hopes for and Soldado was bought to play in the wrong system. In the coming years I don't think we have a choice but to spend £30m on a player. Our money income and squad size will dictate our actions.. we simply cannot keep turning over 6 or 7 players. At some point big spend on individuals has to happen. This year I would have been more than happy to spend large on a CB and smaller on a LB and let that be our business done.
I think the point that I am trying to make is that if for any bona-fide superstars who are pretty much a 'sure-thing' in terms of being likely to be a success become available, then we are going to have competition to sign them from a number of clubs who are more attractive to the player than we are. This leaves us having to take something of a gamble on a player who is still developing or has failed at his current club for one reason or another. If we are taking a gamble then surely the price we pay has to reflect that the signing is something of a gamble?
Your living 5 years ago me old mucker!. Gambles that you talk off where clubs aren't willing to take the risk.. on players like Cuardado are 30m. We saw that with Lamela.
To address each of the players you suggested:
Lavetzi?... I assume you mean Ezequiel Lavezzi who is reportedly earning 7.5 million Euros a year at PSG? How would we persuade him to give this up to move to the 6th placed club in the PL?
Cuadrado - isn't he wanted by Man Utd and Barcelona with Fiorentina not prepared to sell him?
lol at correcting the spelling
Anyway.. Lavezzi has seen his wage reduce over the past two years due to the tax laws in France. I dare say also that PSG would be also willing to pay some of the wages too, which therefore would put him under Adebayor in terms of wage. Cuardado has a value.. something no club is willing to match yet and as like you suggest.. Utd and Barcelona don't need to take gambles, they can purchase the polished article.
Lucas Moura cost PSG £44 million and he has failed to live up to that transfer fee - despite playing for a far stronger club, in a far weaker league.... Would you want us to put all our eggs in one basket and then choose such a player to spend our money on? Surely if we are taking a gamle on a player then we are better off sticking to our current £7 million to £17 million sort of transfer fee?
We did exactly that with Lamela. Why change. Anyway, I'd expect it to be a year loan with a 30m attached fee.
I think you're probably right on the other two, but I'm not convinced that Dzeko would agree to a Spurs switch - which leaves Schnedierlin.... Who I'm not 100% convinced that Southampton would've sold to us last summer even for £30 million.
Southampton would have sold him for 30m.. like every player they sold they had a price and Levy simply was not matching it because of what you suggest £7m - £17m. The same happened with Moutinho. History repeating itself. I think city would have been all to happy to sell Dzeko and bought Falcao and kept Negrado IMO.. Oh look another near 30m player could have gotten.. Negrado.
I also don't think our club would have a problem in paying £30 million for the 'right' player, after all we have already spent an amount quite close to that for both Lamela and Soldado - and look how well both of those have turned out so far!.... Can we afford to make any more expensive mistakes?
What do you mean look how they have turned out.. surely your not down on Levys transfer policy. Personally I think that both players are quality.. Lamela I still have high hopes for and Soldado was bought to play in the wrong system. In the coming years I don't think we have a choice but to spend £30m on a player. Our money income and squad size will dictate our actions.. we simply cannot keep turning over 6 or 7 players. At some point big spend on individuals has to happen. This year I would have been more than happy to spend large on a CB and smaller on a LB and let that be our business done.
I think the point that I am trying to make is that if for any bona-fide superstars who are pretty much a 'sure-thing' in terms of being likely to be a success become available, then we are going to have competition to sign them from a number of clubs who are more attractive to the player than we are. This leaves us having to take something of a gamble on a player who is still developing or has failed at his current club for one reason or another. If we are taking a gamble then surely the price we pay has to reflect that the signing is something of a gamble?
Your living 5 years ago me old mucker!. Gambles that you talk off where clubs aren't willing to take the risk.. on players like Cuardado are 30m. We saw that with Lamela.
The price was only used as a yardstick to offer a metric to the quality of player than I would like to see. It isn't a price cast in stone. It's about the player.
What is wanted is one world class player!
We aren't going to win the league, we aren't going to be close to the champions league again, so why not enjoy watching one world class player turn up every week and play at the lane instead?
The outcome is the same in terms of trophies - it just might be more fun than watching 5 x Stambouli sit in the reserves.
Who could this signing have been? I thought it was a quiet summer for signing world class players in general but Antoine Griezmann was a very achievable target. An Alexis Sanchez or even a Mario Balotelli would have made me more excited about the upcoming season.
What is wanted is one world class player!
We aren't going to win the league, we aren't going to be close to the champions league again, so why not enjoy watching one world class player turn up every week and play at the lane instead?
The outcome is the same in terms of trophies - it just might be more fun than watching 5 x Stambouli sit in the reserves.
Who could this signing have been? I thought it was a quiet summer for signing world class players in general but Antoine Griezmann was a very achievable target. An Alexis Sanchez or even a Mario Balotelli would have made me more excited about the upcoming season.
milo
Jack L. Jones
Your unwillingness to answer any of the questions that have been asked and just keep repeating that you are right and everybody else is wrong is unlikely to convince many people.
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I did - not all players are the same. Players like to play first team football.
However you must match the wages....funded by the ways outlined above.
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the three players you gave as examples joined Champions League clubs where they will be getting first team football and be involved in domestic title challenges - you've said yourself we won't be getting either any time soon so AFAIC you aren't backing yourself up here at all
I wonder, had we not signed Lamela last season, if he'd be on you list of potential signings?
All three of those clubs have published all the transcripts related to those transfers and the players have signed witness statements which state that they would categorically have NOT signed for spurs at any price or salary because they are not challenging for trophies or playing champions league.
Have you read the transcripts? Or did you just put two and two together and guess the rest?
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milo
Jack L. Jones
You haven't given a proper answer to Finney's questions. You've just dismissed them and been unable to back up your argument.
You've also made several digs at other people for not understanding risk analysis but have refused to give a risk analysis for your favoured transfer strategy and explain how this is lower risk than our current one.
No more so than you are by saying these players would have come to us...
You said some players prefer first team football to CL - i said they'll be getting both at the Clubs which bought them - so next up is supposed to be the part where you reason as to why they'd turn down : money/CL/first team football/title challenge to play for us.