Who or what was the turning point for Leicester City ?

[Raziel]

I still think they will fall away a bit. But quite a few of the top 4 chasing teams aren't exactly looking like they will put together a great run of form either...

Of United, West Ham and Liverpool (current 5th-7th) only West Ham look at least somewhat like they can put in consistent performances, and they're another team more or less expected to "fall away" at some point.

Looking at points per game so far and the points total that will bring those teams to if they keep on picking up points at the same rate:

Manu: 1.61 ppg - 61 points total
West Ham: 1.57 ppg - 60 points total
Liverpool: 1.48 ppg - 56 points total

Leicester already have 47 points. To get to 62 points and get ahead of what those teams will pick up if they keep on keeping on as they have done Leicester only need another 15 points from the remaining 15 games. Or roughly ever so slightly better than relegation form.

So it's not just a question for Leicester about how well they will do. It's also a question of if one of the chasing teams can up their game and significantly increase their points per game scores for the last 15 games of the season. Leicester could potentially finish the season quite poorly and yet pick up enough points to finish in the top 4. They could end the season in "mid table form" (1.4 ppg) and pick up another 21 points ending the season on 68 points. That could be a huge task for the chasing teams to make up based on their performances and results this season.

Bookmakers still have Leicester as outsiders to win the league - similar odds to ourselves. But also as rather likely to finish in the top 4 - again very similar odds to ourselves. Seems about right to me.

That's the thing though, these sides (West Ham last season, Swansea, Leicester, insert promoted team that went on run) go into death spirals that "true" top 6 teams don't. It completely would not shock me to see Leicester go on a run of 10 games without a win.

To your point, because everyone else is doing so bad, it makes top 4 more likely, but here's what I think is the most realistic scenario

- Top 3 = City, Scum, Spurs (in whatever order)
- Next 2 = Manure & Pool (neither look good, but they get points without looking good, at some point both will have a run).
- Next 3 = Leicester, Southampton (Austin will win them games), West Ham

I still think Leicester in 8th is not a shock result from here ...

 

[alekaras]

I definitely wouldn't want them anywhere near the top-4 or even top-7, for that matter. The PL needs strong teams in the CL and EL to improve its coefficient. Else top-4 will become top-3 and, although I think our current squad and the way it is progressing is going to be good enough to consistently achieve top-4, it will be a more difficult ask to consistently achieve top-3.

 

[glorygloryeze]

What's the difference between poo-pooing the idea that Leicester can/will make the top four and poo-pooing the idea that we (i.e. Spurs) can/will make the top 4?

 

[Pandy]

What's the difference between poo-pooing the idea that Leicester can/will make the top four and poo-pooing the idea that we (i.e. Spurs) can/will make the top 4?

Erm... Absolutely massive?

 

[scaramanga]

What's the difference between poo-pooing the idea that Leicester can/will make the top four and poo-pooing the idea that we (i.e. Spurs) can/will make the top 4?

ExpG.

Leicester are a meh team playing out of their skins, we're a good team playing at our level.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Erm... Absolutely massive?

Why though?

 

[glorygloryeze]

ExpG.

Leicester are a meh team playing out of their skins, we're a good team playing at our level.

When we made 4th in 2009/10 how did we look compared to Leicester this year when using this measure?

 

[scaramanga]

When we made 4th in 2009/10 how did we look compared to Leicester this year when using this measure?

I'm not sure there's even a comparison to be made.

In 2009/10 we had a team with Bale, Modric and King - three of the best players in world football.

I sincerely doubt that anyone not in need of hospitalisation would put Vardy or Mahrez in that category.

 

[glorygloryeze]

I'm not sure there's even a comparison to be made.

In 2009/10 we had a team with Bale, Modric and King - three of the best players in world football.

I sincerely doubt that anyone not in need of hospitalisation would put Vardy or Mahrez in that category.

Well Modric and Bale became labelled as World Class after that season. Modric had a good rep at that time but was NOT considered world class (otherwise we wouldn't have been able to sign him when we did). Have you forgotten that the 'Bale jinx' was still in effect until January that season and Bale only blossomed into the crazy good Left Winger from Feb onwards.
King was King; world class in our eyes but not much lauded outside of WHL (due to the top 4 bias).

As i say, at the time we were being poo-pooed as top 4 candidates in the same way Leicester are right now. It would be fair to compare Vardy and Mahrez's seasons thus far with Modric and Bales at that half-way point as well (in fact both Modric and Bale had far less significance on our oft position up to that point due to injury and Harry considering a loan for Bale...)

I think it's only us acting all entitled like Liverpool fans usually do that can poo-poo Leicester too much at this point. They are top, not just 4th like we were back in January 2010 after all..

 

[scaramanga]

Well Modric and Bale became labelled as World Class after that season. Modric had a good rep at that time but was NOT considered world class (otherwise we wouldn't have been able to sign him when we did). Have you forgotten that the 'Bale jinx' was still in effect until January that season and Bale only blossomed into the crazy good Left Winger from Feb onwards.
King was King; world class in our eyes but not much lauded outside of WHL (due to the top 4 bias).

As i say, at the time we were being poo-pooed as top 4 candidates in the same way Leicester are right now. It would be fair to compare Vardy and Mahrez's seasons thus far with Modric and Bales at that half-way point as well (in fact both Modric and Bale had far less significance on our oft position up to that point due to injury and Harry considering a loan for Bale...)

I think it's only us acting all entitled like Liverpool fans usually do that can poo-poo Leicester too much at this point. They are top, not just 4th like we were back in January 2010 after all..

There really isn't any comparison.

Only people with no knowledge of football whatsoever couldn't see that Bale and Modric would be stars. There's a huge difference between world class players on their way up and Championship players having a good season.

Unless, of course, you're suggesting that Vardy and Mahrez are Real players in the making? I hope for the sake of your sanity that you're not.

 

[glorygloryeze]

There really isn't any comparison.

Only people with no knowledge of football whatsoever couldn't see that Bale and Modric would be stars. There's a huge difference between world class players on their way up and Championship players having a good season.

Unless, of course, you're suggesting that Vardy and Mahrez are Real players in the making? I hope for the sake of your sanity that you're not.

Mahrez is a good player - why can he not get better than he has already?

Vardy? I'll give you that, he's 29 and has only pace and shoots on sight (not bad in itself, but the higher level strikers can also place their shots).

My point is that it's a TEAM game; Leicester are up there on merit like we were 6 years ago. How world class their players or our players at the time are going to be/were going to be is not that relevant to the point i'm making: which is that they are being poo-pooed like we were back then. If it is legitimate to denigrate Leicester now then it was to do the same to us back then.
Also remember and compare the managerial strengths and weaknesses between Ranieri now and Harry then: one has formed a solid team who are greater than the sum of its parts with two key attacking individuals who have elevated them higher than they should otherwise be; the other told his team to just 'go put there and play' and mainly got results because he luckily had a team of great individuals.

I don't think very many pundits tipped us to be top 4 by the end of that season 6 years ago...

 

[scaramanga]

Mahrez is a good player - why can he not get better than he has already?

Vardy? I'll give you that, he's 29 and has only pace and shoots on sight (not bad in itself, but the higher level strikers can also place their shots).

My point is that it's a TEAM game; Leicester are up there on merit like we were 6 years ago. How world class their players or our players at the time are going to be/were going to be is not that relevant to the point i'm making: which is that they are being poo-pooed like we were back then. If it is legitimate to denigrate Leicester now then it was to do the same to us back then.
Also remember and compare the managerial strengths and weaknesses between Ranieri now and Harry then: one has formed a solid team who are greater than the sum of its parts with two key attacking individuals who have elevated them higher than they should otherwise be; the other told his team to just 'go put there and play' and mainly got results because he luckily had a team of great individuals.

I don't think very many pundits tipped us to be top 4 by the end of that season 6 years ago...

Leicester aren't there on merit, that's the point.

Look at their ExpG, look at their goals per shot on target, their shots on target per shot, their saves, their blocks, the refereeing decisions, the lack of injuries, etc. Pretty much every metric is in their favour way past the point of repeatability.

There's no way of saying when regression will hit, but it definitely will. Even if by some extremes of chance they continue on this run and get 4th, the only thing that and us getting 4th will have in common is that we're not City, Chelsea, Arsenal or Utd. Other than that there are no similarities.

Sorry, there is one other similarity, pundits are still fudging departed.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Leicester aren't there on merit, that's the point.

Look at their ExpG, look at their goals per shot on target, their shots on target per shot, their saves, their blocks, the refereeing decisions, the lack of injuries, etc. Pretty much every metric is in their favour way past the point of repeatability.

Many have said the same about many of Mourinho's teams - and he buys at the top table of players. There is more than one way to skin a cat in terms of method of trying to win matches. I actually think Ranieri will attempt to go full 'Catennaccio' in this econd half of the season, whereas i think Leicester have been relatively gung-ho in the first half (see the lack of clean sheets in their first 19 games). A tactic that could well get them over the line.

There's no way of saying when regression will hit, but it definitely will. Even if by some extremes of chance they continue on this run and get 4th, the only thing that and us getting 4th will have in common is that we're not City, Chelsea, Arsenal or Utd. Other than that there are no similarities.

Sorry, there is one other similarity, pundits are still fudgeing departed.

If they get 4th this season (which i think is a big possibility, even if i don't want them to as them being there is one less place for us to aim for) who cares about how similar they play to us? Many, MANY pundits felt we played very randomly when we got 4th and would "regress to the Spurs mean".
We were being poo-pooed then; just like Leicester are being poo-poed now..

 

[Dicko]

If Leicester are backed by pretty wealthy owners/investors then is there a danger that if they make top 4 they could splash the cash and attract some decent CL level players and be able to consolidate as a top 4-6 club? or does the fact they are still relatively unknown outside the UK mean they will never be able to attract any star names, surely money talks (like those players that go to China or that used to go to that Anzhi club in Russia etc.

 

[scaramanga]

If Leicester are backed by pretty wealthy owners/investors then is there a danger that if they make top 4 they could splash the cash and attract some decent CL level players and be able to consolidate as a top 4-6 club? or does the fact they are still relatively unknown outside the UK mean they will never be able to attract any star names, surely money talks (like those players that go to China or that used to go to that Anzhi club in Russia etc.

Both.

The owners are able to spend cash, but as the company has no real revenue to speak of it becomes very difficult to spend it with it falling foul of FFP.

Unless, of course, they are able to employ the son of the chair of UEFA. In which case they can spend whatever they like.

 

[Jurgen the German]

I said I wouldn't write off Leicester anymore, that said, I can still see them slipping. But I don't know why people think they are going to slip as far as 7th-8th. They are 11 points clear of West Ham in 6th. That means West Ham have to lose 4 less games than Leicester and West Ham are going to lose at least 2-3 more games. Liverpool and United aren't playing consistently well at all. I think it's likely that Leicester will finish in the top 4 at the very least now.

 

[braineclipse]

That's the thing though, these sides (West Ham last season, Swansea, Leicester, insert promoted team that went on run) go into death spirals that "true" top 6 teams don't. It completely would not shock me to see Leicester go on a run of 10 games without a win.

To your point, because everyone else is doing so bad, it makes top 4 more likely, but here's what I think is the most realistic scenario

- Top 3 = City, Scum, Spurs (in whatever order)
- Next 2 = Manure & Pool (neither look good, but they get points without looking good, at some point both will have a run).
- Next 3 = Leicester, Southampton (Austin will win them games), West Ham

I still think Leicester in 8th is not a shock result from here ...

I agree that it's a possibility. But probably a point a game for 15 games would be considered pretty much a death spiral for a "true top 6 team". But potentially even that could be enough for Leicester from this point on. Not saying they couldn't potentially do even worse too... But right now that's not looking particularly likely.

To me right now Leicester look more likely to be in the top 6 than not. Not sure about top 4 though..

As for 8th... Liverpool would have to make up 13 points on them in 15 games. We're closing in on a point per game they have to make up and Liverpool have just about picked up a game and a half per game so far this season...

 

[scaramanga]

Many have said the same about many of Mourinho's teams - and he buys at the top table of players. There is more than one way to skin a cat in terms of method of trying to win matches. I actually think Ranieri will attempt to go full 'Catennaccio' in this econd half of the season, whereas i think Leicester have been relatively gung-ho in the first half (see the lack of clean sheets in their first 19 games). A tactic that could well get them over the line.

AFAIK nobody has ever said that about a Mourinho team. One of the standout things about a Mourinho team is that it always performs to its metrics, come rain or shine. If there's a manager whose teams you can solidly predict, whose team consistently posts repeatable shots, goals, etc, it's Mourinho.

The exception being this season, although rumours are that that's more to do with players wanting him out.

If they get 4th this season (which i think is a big possibility, even if i don't want them to as them being there is one less place for us to aim for) who cares about how similar they play to us? Many, MANY pundits felt we played very randomly when we got 4th and would "regress to the Spurs mean".
We were being poo-pooed then; just like Leicester are being poo-poed now..

Again, ignore pundits - they're not picked for their intelligence.

We were written off because "failure is the sexy thing to do" or something like that. I'm writing Leicester off because they are running at completely unrepeatable levels in just about every measure.

 

[Grays_1890]

Why though?

Want it in simple terms?

They nearly went down last term

 

[Jurgen the German]

AFAIK nobody has ever said that about a Mourinho team. One of the standout things about a Mourinho team is that it always performs to its metrics, come rain or shine. If there's a manager whose teams you can solidly predict, whose team consistently posts repeatable shots, goals, etc, it's Mourinho.

The exception being this season, although rumours are that that's more to do with players wanting him out.


Again, ignore pundits - they're not picked for their intelligence.

We were written off because "failure is the sexy thing to do" or something like that. I'm writing Leicester off because they are running at completely unrepeatable levels in just about every measure.

Where do you think they will finish? Given how inconsistent most teams have been, they don't even have to play that well for the rest of the season to get top 4. They can afford to lose at least 4-5 games. I can't see them finishing below 5th. Regardless of how bad/average we think they are, you have to factor in their current form and the momentum they seem to have. I don't see it carrying over to next season but as with Saudi Sportswashing Machine in 2011/12 when we finished 4th, I don't see them collapsing.