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Welcome Ange: To Dare is to Didgeridoo

Baleforce said:
It depends on your model, a club like us, we need that CL revenue to compete.

The cheating clubs are gonna spend anyway
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And yet we got to the final in 2019 and have been on a generally downward spiral since. Go figure.

If we ARE going to qualify for the CL we’ll need to sort out the amount of goals we concede. We’d have bucked every historical trend on goals conceded going back over 30 years if we’d managed to qualify this year.
 
Mr Gogolak said:
Something I don't really get about other teams getting CL football is that we got that for some time, went all the way to the final five years ago... and look where we are now. Arsenal missed out for six years in a row and they are challenging for the title. Of course, it's better to be in than out but there's so much money in the PL at the moment that playing in the CL is not something that sets you apart for ever. It would have been nice to qualify but missing out isn't the end of the world, in my opinion.
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It's complicated and nuance is not something football fans/media don't do well

Basically top clubs
- Play in best competitions
- Can buy/pay best amounts

Add in
- PSR/FFP/whatever money spend rules that will always in some ration of income/spend limit clubs
- Sponsorship/merchandising/brand awareness contributes (tv rights, games shown globally, etc.)

So, if you are a top club, you probably have sorted the source of income annually (size of stadium, ticket prices, merch, sponsors. etc.), yes CL is a nice boost but you either already have organic mechanism (United, Pool, Spurs, Arsenal) or you just cheat past it (City, Chelsea)

So how do you become a top club if you aren't?
- Mistake people/media/narrative makes is it's about winning something (and this will drive people crazy, so I'm expecting abuse). That is only a very small part of it, the main part is in addition to your "success" on pitch (win or CL place), you have to increase your income dramatically to stay in the game. Arsenal, United, Pool, Spurs can all "afford" a season or three out of Europe because the non European income is still very high (top 10 in world football)

Lets play this out in real world
- Leicester's owners pumped money into the club and in the space of 5 years they won both the PL & FA cup, are they a big club now? no, they are actually in the championship (and yes they will come back up but their goal will be to survive next season not challenge for anything)
- Why? because that success did not change their income to anything close to competing with the top 6 clubs. When 6 clubs earn more than £250M-£400M a year (every year) than you, it is not something you can overcome, every 3-5 years, they can spend a £1B more on squad than you and still sit in the rules

Villa will be the same, 2-3 years back to competing with West Ham & that tier. And that isn't even getting into can your best players/managers just be poached continuously from you.

This is what people miss about Spurs over the last 2 decades, we fudged up the final step of short term success (trophies) but we have outperformed everybody in setting up the long term success by being able to compete financially (consistently and in the rules)
 
glorygloryeze said:
Oh boy....can we start talking about the things that have been happening on the actual pitch??

Can anyone explain why we have progressively looked worse since January (when generally the number of injuries has reduced compared to the autumn)? In particular, why have we mostly looked worse the more time we've had between games?

Is there any previous precedent we've seen this for a manager in their first year that ending up being successful (either with us or other clubs)?

I worry that this is he reverse of what would be expected if a mangers methods were a) effective long-term and b) being gotten used to/absorbed by the playing squad.

I'd love a constructive conversation about this please.
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Because our opponents have learnt the most effective ways to counter our system.

I agree with you that it is the opposite of what we would expect and hope to see (Pochettino’s Chelsea is an example of that).
 
glorygloryeze said:
Oh boy....can we start talking about the things that have been happening on the actual pitch??

Can anyone explain why we have progressively looked worse since January (when generally the number of injuries has reduced compared to the autumn)? In particular, why have we mostly looked worse the more time we've had between games?

Is there any previous precedent we've seen this for a manager in their first year that ending up being successful (either with us or other clubs)?

I worry that this is he reverse of what would be expected if a mangers methods were a) effective long-term and b) being gotten used to/absorbed by the playing squad.

I'd love a constructive conversation about this please.
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IMO it’s a combination of things including form, confidence, injuries and availability…, then add in teams have adjusted to us

The vast majority of teams have low blocked us and we haven’t had anyone play a proper CF role to occupy the spare men the opposition have (CBs)

It’s no coincidence then when we had a fit CF playing he was getting a goal a game.

When teams low block we still seem to wanna play the same patterns that aren’t working (I don’t get why) and we actually move the ball slower when speed is key IMO

Then what invariably happens is someone loses it normally centrally (son and Maddison have been massively guilty of this, as has Destiny) and teams counter quickly and successfully.

Then add it the recent set piece issues and that’s how teams were scoring against us making our job even harder

Timing if getting players back hasn’t helped either as it’s been one in one out at times
We currently play with no one who is a left sided player… what’s the chances of that
And we did lose 3 key players to mid season tournaments

His stats for a dissection of the issues ?
 
Mikey10 said:
They pay more in wages than us, according to a discussion on Sky yesterday, so there may be more money there than we’d all think. I think they’ll be in the CL mix again next season, as will Chelsea. Hopefully Liverpool won’t, which might mean we can still be in and around there too.
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I would VERY surprised if that was the case. Aston Villa’s turnover cannot sustain a wage bill as high as ours, the only way they could do so is by operating a transfer surplus every year (which I’m pretty sure they aren’t doing).

Any club who aren’t guaranteed to be in the CL every year (which realistically probably means all other than Emirates Marketing Project) cannot grow their wage bill to an amount that can only be sustained by having CL football. Villa will have that quandry this year.

I have advocated in the past that our transfer and (more importantly) wage bill should be one that assumes Europa League football and in seasons where we make the champions league, we should probably spend the same as we would in a Europa season and save the rest to make up shortfalls in case we have seasons where we’re in the conference or have no Europe at all.
 
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Finney Is Back said:
I would VERY surprised if that was the case. Aston Villa’s turnover cannot sustain a wage bill as high as ours.

Any club who are guaranteed to be in the CL every year (which realistically probably means all other than Emirates Marketing Project) cannot grow their wage bill to an amount that can only be sustained by having CL football. Villa will have that quandry this year.

I have advocated in the past that our transfer and (more importantly) wage bill should be one that assumes Europa League football and in seasons where we make the champions league, we should probably spend the same as we would in a Europa season and save the rest to make up shortfalls in case we have seasons where we’re in the conference or have no Europe at all.
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That is the slight downside to Villa getting CL. They had already pushed the boat out on wages and transfers and were facing a difficult situation this summer. CL money will definitely help but even that might only stabilise them.
 
Finney Is Back said:
I would VERY surprised if that was the case. Aston Villa’s turnover cannot sustain a wage bill as high as ours, the only way they could do so is by operating a transfer surplus every year (which I’m pretty sure they aren’t doing).

Any club who are guaranteed to be in the CL every year (which realistically probably means all other than Emirates Marketing Project) cannot grow their wage bill to an amount that can only be sustained by having CL football. Villa will have that quandry this year.

I have advocated in the past that our transfer and (more importantly) wage bill should be one that assumes Europa League football and in seasons where we make the champions league, we should probably spend the same as we would in a Europa season and save the rest to make up shortfalls in case we have seasons where we’re in the conference or have no Europe at all.
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According to this source, you’re right on Villa’s wage bill. Not much in it though.

www.planetfootball.com

Ranking every Premier League club by their wage bill in 2023-24: Arsenal above Chelsea...

Manchester United's wage bill is over 35 times higher than Luton Town's in a stark reminder of quite how stratified the Premier League will be in the 2023-24 season. Here’s the full rundown of how much each Premier League club pays in wages.
www.planetfootball.com www.planetfootball.com
 
Lilbaz said:
New formst more games more money. It's not just the money you get from cl. It's extra match day revenue (probably around £6-8m a game) and sponsorships.
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I'm aware of that. I said 'net'.

You have to net off what they (or us if you're comparing) would receive via a EL campaign. Usually a CL winner will receive £50m more than a EL winner. I'd predict us or Villa would go further in the EL than CL, and the matchday revenue is the same (possibly more in the EL as you'll go further).
 
Raziel said:
It's complicated and nuance is not something football fans/media don't do well

Basically top clubs
- Play in best competitions
- Can buy/pay best amounts

Add in
- PSR/FFP/whatever money spend rules that will always in some ration of income/spend limit clubs
- Sponsorship/merchandising/brand awareness contributes (tv rights, games shown globally, etc.)

So, if you are a top club, you probably have sorted the source of income annually (size of stadium, ticket prices, merch, sponsors. etc.), yes CL is a nice boost but you either already have organic mechanism (United, Pool, Spurs, Arsenal) or you just cheat past it (City, Chelsea)

So how do you become a top club if you aren't?
- Mistake people/media/narrative makes is it's about winning something (and this will drive people crazy, so I'm expecting abuse). That is only a very small part of it, the main part is in addition to your "success" on pitch (win or CL place), you have to increase your income dramatically to stay in the game. Arsenal, United, Pool, Spurs can all "afford" a season or three out of Europe because the non European income is still very high (top 10 in world football)

Lets play this out in real world
- Leicester's owners pumped money into the club and in the space of 5 years they won both the PL & FA cup, are they a big club now? no, they are actually in the championship (and yes they will come back up but their goal will be to survive next season not challenge for anything)
- Why? because that success did not change their income to anything close to competing with the top 6 clubs. When 6 clubs earn more than £250M-£400M a year (every year) than you, it is not something you can overcome, every 3-5 years, they can spend a £1B more on squad than you and still sit in the rules

Villa will be the same, 2-3 years back to competing with West Ham & that tier. And that isn't even getting into can your best players/managers just be poached continuously from you.

This is what people miss about Spurs over the last 2 decades, we fudged up the final step of short term success (trophies) but we have outperformed everybody in setting up the long term success by being able to compete financially (consistently and in the rules)
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I think you make a lot of fair points here. The only thing that could be held against you, I think, is that the picture you paint shows how far the game has moved on from what it was until the mid-90s, when a great manager could win a lot of trophies with a decent team and when winning a trophy actually meant something. Part of the whole debate about the City game is that, to a lot of people, winning the league doesn't mean much. It's a nice extra but it doesn't beat being in the Champions League.

You may be old enough to remember what it felt like to win the FA Cup in 1991. It's not just the win and the pride of actually winning something, it's the whole run, the win against Arsenal in the semi, Gascoigne's winner against Notts County and the fact that it felt huge (to me, at least, it did). It was history in the making. Now, I couldn't tell you when Wigan won it against City. During the European ban, the league and FA Cup meant so much. Now, at times, even the PL feels like a World Cup qualifying group.

Again, that doesn't take anything from your analysis which, I feel, is fairly accurate. It's just a depressing afterthought. To quote the Rolling Stones: what a drag it is, getting old...
 
Mr Gogolak said:
Something I don't really get about other teams getting CL football is that we got that for some time, went all the way to the final five years ago... and look where we are now. Arsenal missed out for six years in a row and they are challenging for the title. Of course, it's better to be in than out but there's so much money in the PL at the moment that playing in the CL is not something that sets you apart for ever. It would have been nice to qualify but missing out isn't the end of the world, in my opinion.
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Agreed - things are much different now to when there was that glass ceiling between 4th & 5th that we broke through under Redknapp
 
Mikey10 said:
According to this source, you’re right on Villa’s wage bill. Not much in it though.

www.planetfootball.com

Ranking every Premier League club by their wage bill in 2023-24: Arsenal above Chelsea...

Manchester United's wage bill is over 35 times higher than Luton Town's in a stark reminder of quite how stratified the Premier League will be in the 2023-24 season. Here’s the full rundown of how much each Premier League club pays in wages.
www.planetfootball.com www.planetfootball.com
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That looks WAY out to me. Wages and salaries in our last set of accounts were at: £251.1m. Our wage and salary number for the last reported financial year was higher than Aston Villa’s entire turnover (£217.7m). Villa’s wage and salary number for that same period was an unsustainable £194.2m.

I suspect Aston Villa will have little to spend in the transfer market this summer, even with the additional money they will receive from their CL qualification.
 
Finney Is Back said:
That looks WAY out to me. Wages and salaries in our last set of accounts were at: £251.1m. Our wage and salary number for the last reported financial year was higher than Aston Villa’s entire turnover (£217.7m). Villa’s wage and salary number for that same period was an unsustainable £194.2m.

I suspect Aston Villa will have little to spend in the transfer market this summer, even with the additional money they will receive from their CL qualification.
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They are known to be on/over the edge on financials
 
Really interesting that Ange says the Emirates Marketing Project game was the worst experience he's had as a manager in the game. Good to hear a bit more about that incident with the fan behind him at the match.
And admits he read the support base wrong.

Check from 12 minutes in here. And then after 21:30
 
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billyiddo said:
Agreed - things are much different now to when there was that glass ceiling between 4th & 5th that we broke through under Redknapp
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Definitely. I remember one of my cousins asked me around March 2010 if I would accept 4th place if it meant Arsenal winning the league (they were loosely in the title race at that point with Chelsea but by no means favourites) and without hesitation I said “yes”. We beat the pair of them about a month later and it wasn’t even a consideration in my mind that us beating Chelsea would open the door again somewhat for Arsenal. The situation was completely different, CL seemed like an unscalable mountain at that point as we had never done it. We’ve done it multiple times now and the shine of just finishing 4th has wore off for me. I’d rather be in it than not and I won’t pretend otherwise but it was too much of a long shot even if we had won the game on Tuesday.
 
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