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The Official 2019/20 Premier League Thread

jts1882 said:
I think the risk of players infecting each other while training or playing is overstated (as long as they don't spit at each other). The R value of this virus during the peak of the infection was around 3. That means for all the interactions of an infected person with others over around a week while infectious they only pass it on to a few people. Most of these cases will be prolonged contact in enclosed spaces. The individual risks of infection are low, it only becomes a problem when a tiny risk for each interaction is scaled up to the whole population.

To finish the season the players should be "quarantined" as group. Players shouldn't be going home for the month required to finish the season and should live in hotels with their teammates. They will probably be at less risk of infection in a controlled environment than if mixing with family, friends and hookers.
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Do you know what an R rate of 3 means? Because it doesn't seem like it. An R rate of 3 is catastrophic!
 
Kandi1977 said:
Do you know what an R rate of 3 means? Because it doesn't seem like it. An R rate of 3 is catastrophic!
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Not necessarily. You can't make that judgement on R alone, other factors such as incubation time have to be factored in.

As an extreme example to show the point; if a person is contagious for a year with a given virus, bit R=3, then it's not really much to worry about.
 
As above, 22 players per club plus staff will not have any meaningful increase on the number of infected people in the UK, and it wont have any impact at all on the NHS (reason being that the numbers are small and these are all fit, healthy people).

Therefore if there is minimal downside, but provides some upside of 'getting back to normal(ish)' then it has to be worth it
 
AdamB said:
As above, 22 players per club plus staff will not have any meaningful increase on the number of infected people in the UK, and it wont have any impact at all on the NHS (reason being that the numbers are small and these are all fit, healthy people).

Therefore if there is minimal downside, but provides some upside of 'getting back to normal(ish)' then it has to be worth it
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Aren't you underestimating the "plus staff" bit? I'd imagine there are a couple of hundred other people required from each club in order to put on a premier league game...

Not thousands of people sure, but do all of these people need to stay in a closed off camp for the duration too?
 
dawaxman said:
Aren't you underestimating the "plus staff" bit? I'd imagine there are a couple of hundred other people required from each club in order to put on a premier league game...

Not thousands of people sure, but do all of these people need to stay in a closed off camp for the duration too?
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Plus all of those required to look after the played where they're staying
 
scaramanga said:
Not necessarily. You can't make that judgement on R alone, other factors such as incubation time have to be factored in.

As an extreme example to show the point; if a person is contagious for a year with a given virus, bit R=3, then it's not really much to worry about.
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The point is that to contain and possibly kill an outbreak, you need to get R less than 1. R more than 1 means an increasingly growing number of cases.
 
Kandi1977 said:
The point is that to contain and possibly kill an outbreak, you need to get R less than 1. R more than 1 means an increasingly growing number of cases.
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But if everyone only infects three people a year (as in my case), the rate grows very slowly - even on an exponential curve.
 
dawaxman said:
Aren't you underestimating the "plus staff" bit? I'd imagine there are a couple of hundred other people required from each club in order to put on a premier league game...

Not thousands of people sure, but do all of these people need to stay in a closed off camp for the duration too?
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in the Bundesliga they need 322 people working/playing for each game to take place
 
Kandi1977 said:
But this isn't the case with this virus now, is it?
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The infection time is shorter, so it spreads a lot easier - just with a shorter contagious period.

Unchecked, the end result would be the same but it would take much longer to get there.
 
scaramanga said:
It's how many people infected by each infected person.
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Technically yes, but to say 'per year' as you did above ("But if everyone only infects three people a year (as in my case)") is miles off. It would be far quicker than that as you'd have recovered in that period, hence the guidance being to self-isolate for 7-14 days
 
AdamB said:
Technically yes, but to say 'per year' as you did above ("But if everyone only infects three people a year (as in my case)") is miles off. It would be far quicker than that as you'd have recovered in that period, hence the guidance being to self-isolate for 7-14 days
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Precisely my point - the R value alone means next to nothing without knowing the length of infectiousness.

Given that there's a good chance it's been around a while, it's a considerably important factor.
 
Integrity and transparency, lol. If they knew no one would ever find out, these test results would be brushed under the carpet to make sure the cash could start flowing again asap.
 
No reason to cancel the league on medical grounds - they will be tested non stop and in a bubble.

Everything else suggested, yes

Also that’s .8 percent - good odds
 
Are all 300 or so people that have been reported to be required at each Prem game also going to be tested with the same frequency?
And all the hotel staff required for the couple of months accommodation?
 
Aldo said:
Are all 300 or so people that have been reported to be required at each Prem game also going to be tested with the same frequency?
And all the hotel staff required for the couple of months accommodation?
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And the delivery drivers going to and from both places, their colleagues and families, etc.
 
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