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The Fight to Qualify for the European Conference League 2020/21

braineclipse said:
This is all true, but the extent to which players can be expected to outscore xG is relevant.

There are other factors. We attack more on the break, I think the Son goal vs. Arsenal is a bit harder to make happen against a settled back line, there would be at least some pressure from a defender most of the time.

The way we manage games means that we're perhaps less likely to rack up higher xG numbers after taking the lead, though I'm not sure about that one. It could also swing the other way as we prefer playing on the break.

The way we would manage games differently if we didn't take an early lead is also a factor.

It all adds up, but does it add up to Mourinho "cheating xG" by close to thirty goals over a season? That would surprise me, but it's not impossible I suppose. And the samole size is still relatively small.
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XG is useful ish...
That son goal cAn only be scored by a few players. For example you wouldn’t expect anyone from the arsenal team to score it currently
But quite a few players may have taken a shot from there which creates the XG...

I do agree with you that the way we play makes a difference to the XG numbers. West Ham for example had fans boasting only this week they have won the XG in all the big games they played despite only taking 1 point.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
XG is useful ish...
That son goal cAn only be scored by a few players. For example you wouldn’t expect anyone from the arsenal team to score it currently
But quite a few players may have taken a shot from there which creates the XG...

I do agree with you that the way we play makes a difference to the XG numbers. West Ham for example had fans boasting only this week they have won the XG in all the big games they played despite only taking 1 point.
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Did they “win” the XG vs us? I find that hard to believe.
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
Did they “win” the XG vs us? I find that hard to believe.
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This is part of what makes xG interesting to me at least. When the xG numbers are surprising, when they're contrary to what I believed about a match from watching it. Doesn't make xG the right way to evaluate a game or performances, but sometimes it leads to seeing things a bit differently.

xG tells a story we're we were clinical, then they were clinical (and lucky with the own goal). My feeling during the game was that we were cruising, but perhaps that feeling was more down to the scoreline than the actual performance.
 
braineclipse said:
This is part of what makes xG interesting to me at least. When the xG numbers are surprising, when they're contrary to what I believed about a match from watching it. Doesn't make xG the right way to evaluate a game or performances, but sometimes it leads to seeing things a bit differently.

xG tells a story we're we were clinical, then they were clinical (and lucky with the own goal). My feeling during the game was that we were cruising, but perhaps that feeling was more down to the scoreline than the actual performance.
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Xg doesn’t highlight performance though. Just shot chance conversion
So a team can be brilliant and make 40 plus crosses with all the possession .... but create nothing. And the opposition could score 2 screamers with a low xg and look worse on the pitch but win
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Xg doesn’t highlight performance though. Just shot chance conversion
So a team can be brilliant and make 40 plus crosses with all the possession .... but create nothing. And the opposition could score 2 screamers with a low xg and look worse on the pitch but win
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It paints a better picture of performance than most stats do imo, though far from perfect. If there is a different stat that gives a better view on performance I would be interested in hearing them.

A team with 40 crosses creating no shots from them would get an xG of 0 from that.

Football is about scoring goals, xG gives a decent view of the quality of chances a team creates I think. But there are shortcomings so conclusions will only be tentative and combining those stats with watching the games gives a better view.
 
braineclipse said:
It paints a better picture of performance than most stats do imo, though far from perfect. If there is a different stat that gives a better view on performance I would be interested in hearing them.

A team with 40 crosses creating no shots from them would get an xG of 0 from that.

Football is about scoring goals, xG gives a decent view of the quality of chances a team creates I think. But there are shortcomings so conclusions will only be tentative and combining those stats with watching the games gives a better view.
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A team could miss two sitters like Werner did last week and get a high xG. Vs a team battering someone but creating poor chances because that team is defending so well

I agree it’s useful but it needs to be balanced against shots taken for context abs I’d add in probably pass completion %
 
Xg is useful but there are a number of things that aren't taken into account and ones that will impact our stats.
It only takes into account shots taken and the chance they have of scoring.
As we're playing a counter-attacking game there will be times we break and are in dangerous situations but they break down. These aren't taken into account even though they can have a higher chance of a goal than someone shooting from 40 yards that is taken into account.
Also, we have taken the lead early in a number of games and shut up shop. If we hadn't we would've been pushing harder for a goal and would have a higher Xg.
 
Stat geeks
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A few weeks back someone posted a vintage photo of the "Hold on to your knickers, it's the year of the rooster" banner..
Along with some remastered footage from the 1961 cup final.

Does anyone recall which thread it was in? can't find it :(
 
elyid said:
A few weeks back someone posted a vintage photo of the "Hold on to your knickers, it's the year of the rooster" banner..
Along with some remastered footage from the 1961 cup final.

Does anyone recall which thread it was in? can't find it :(
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Sounds like the Glory glory hole to me...
 
DubSpur said:
Xg is useful but there are a number of things that aren't taken into account and ones that will impact our stats.
It only takes into account shots taken and the chance they have of scoring.
As we're playing a counter-attacking game there will be times we break and are in dangerous situations but they break down. These aren't taken into account even though they can have a higher chance of a goal than someone shooting from 40 yards that is taken into account.
Also, we have taken the lead early in a number of games and shut up shop. If we hadn't we would've been pushing harder for a goal and would have a higher Xg.
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If nobody shoots then the actual chance of scoring (other than some freak accident) is zero.
 
Its been a good weekend so far. man U, Emirates Marketing Project (dropping 2 pts) and the chavs dropping 3. A good 3 pts vs Palace and Fulham taking points off Liverpool would be a great weekend
 
Briddo1882 said:
Its been a good weekend so far. man U, Emirates Marketing Project (dropping 2 pts) and the chavs dropping 3. A good 3 pts vs Palace and Fulham taking points off Liverpool would be a great weekend
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Yeah... although Fulham are awful so I don’t see them getting anything TBH
Best thing from today is Jota being out for a few months
And of course Chelsea being exposed more
 
League table is looking exceptionally tight, and I worry about our overload of fixtures. The Stoke game, potentially a league cup semi in the first week of Jan (though 1 leg though at least)...at least the FA Cup this season doesnt have replays.
 
AdamB said:
League table is looking exceptionally tight, and I worry about our overload of fixtures. The Stoke game, potentially a league cup semi in the first week of Jan (though 1 leg though at least)...at least the FA Cup this season doesnt have replays.
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One game at a time
 
SpurMeUp said:
We have a real chance in the League Cup. Must be favorites? Must be roles for Bale, Alli, Moura... Maybe we'll even add a CB in Jan.
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Will be interesting to see what sort of team we put out at Stoke. Scratching my head on how many first-teamers we'd need to add to our Europa 11 (plus Rodon) to be safe
 
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