So, what happened today?

[johnola]

Lease companies are going to be broken by the absence of value of EVs at the end of term. Nobody wants em.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

I think it was the court proceedings on commission payments that's been giving them headaches 2bh. The largest vehicle finance providers have been putting millions aside - the recent decision that brokers did not owe consumers a fiduciary duty of care and were able to act with their own commercial interests in mind caused a sigh of relief but the FCA are considering a limited redress scheme so once that uncertainty is finalised i'm sure that will be their major headache gone. Depreciation is factored into lease repayments and the government grant announced will help in pushing EV deals lower.

Leave market has just seen lease plan brought by Ayvens who are mainly focussed on volume and cheaper fleet cars
They wouldn’t supply my last place with mercy because they had massive backlogs due to their price vs spot pricing so they offered up cars from Stellantis… that went down well

 

[Bullet]

Leave market has just seen lease plan brought by Ayvens who are mainly focussed on volume and cheaper fleet cars
They wouldn’t supply my last place with mercy because they had massive backlogs due to their price vs spot pricing so they offered up cars from Stellantis… that went down well

I feel like you are in the business of buying things and negotiating.
But you always without fail use brought rather than bought??

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Depreciation is factored into lease repayments and the government grant announced will help in pushing EV deals lower.

I know that....but they've miscalculated the rate of depreciation of EVs in the first years of them being popular. Obviously as they had no historical prices to go on.

Plus wasn't there always stories of subprime car loans being the next pack of cards.... literally they could get anyone into a vehicle?

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

I know that....but they've miscalculated the rate of depreciation of EVs in the first years of them being popular. Obviously as they had no historical prices to go on.

Plus wasn't there always stories of subprime car loans being the next pack of cards.... literally they could get anyone into a vehicle?

It wouldn't really be possible for car loans to be the next pack of cards, because the liabilities are short term and they aren't securitised like mortgages are. Sub prime mortgages becoming a pack of cards happened because the loans were securitised off the books of banks into wholesale and capital market instruments like CDOs, so you had investors buying tranches of mortgages off of banks based on duff ratings agency ratings. Largely this was due to loose practices such diversification assessments where the more loans that were securitised into a CDO the better the credit rating (in theory due to the probability of all or most of the loans defaulting reducing). You then had a practice of selling CDS (credit default swap) which is essentially paying investors to accept the liability of defaults on your assets.

A short term downturn in the US economy then led to a snowball effect where junior tranches of bonds began failing with banks suffering the double hit of defaults and liabilities to CDS on the defaults. This led to distrust in the ratings agency ratings and markets and banks stopped lending to each other essentially (i.e. they stopped trading each other's assets). As a bank relies on the ability to liquify securitised assets to meet liabilities to depositors they essentially ran out of money particularly as media reporting of events led to people trying to withdraw deposits in unusually high volumes.

Was just a vicious cycle that despite all the poor practices it exposed actually primarily spiralled due to chance events.

Wouldn't happen with car loans.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

It wouldn't really be possible for car loans to be the next pack of cards, because the liabilities are short term and they aren't securitised like mortgages are. Sub prime mortgages becoming a pack of cards happened because the loans were securitised off the books of banks into wholesale and capital market instruments like CDOs, so you had investors buying tranches of mortgages off of banks based on duff ratings agency ratings. Largely this was due to loose practices such diversification assessments where the more loans that were securitised into a CDO the better the credit rating (in theory due to the probability of all or most of the loans defaulting reducing). You then had a practice of selling CDS (credit default swap) which is essentially paying investors to accept the liability of defaults on your assets.

A short term downturn in the US economy then led to a snowball effect where junior tranches of bonds began failing with banks suffering the double hit of defaults and liabilities to CDS on the defaults. This led to distrust in the ratings agency ratings and markets and banks stopped lending to each other essentially (i.e. they stopped trading each other's assets). As a bank relies on the ability to liquify securitised assets to meet liabilities to depositors they essentially ran out of money particularly as media reporting of events led to people trying to withdraw deposits in unusually high volumes.

Was just a vicious cycle that despite all the poor practices it exposed actually primarily spiralled due to chance events.

Wouldn't happen with car loans.

I know the detailed history of the sub prime crisis (it drove me out of finance)

It was probably lazy journalism that was using that terminology. But there were many reports pre COVID of boom lending to private buyers (pcp's etc).. basically tranches of rock bottom interest rate loans looking for a place to live. Hence getting anyone into a new car who fancied it. (Whether they could afford it was not considered). That's the parallel with sub prime home loans. And it's probably worse tbh...as all held against a depreciating asset.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

I know the detailed history of the sub prime crisis (it drove me out of finance)

It was probably lazy journalism that was using that terminology. But there were many reports pre COVID of boom lending to private buyers (pcp's etc).. basically tranches of rock bottom interest rate loans looking for a place to live. Hence getting anyone into a new car who fancied it. (Whether they could afford it was not considered). That's the parallel with sub prime home loans. And it's probably worse tbh...as all held against a depreciating asset.

Yeah but theyre not securitised so its a straight credit risk exposure for the lender. Plus while the assets depreciate theyre far easier to repossess than a house and to sell on and your exposure is over a few years rather than a few decades.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Yeah but theyre not securitised so its a straight credit risk exposure for the lender. Plus while the assets depreciate theyre far easier to repossess than a house and to sell on and your exposure is over a few years rather than a few decades.

I'm sure cdo's are a tool used by providers of vehicle finance?.

The crux of the story was...the financial institutions having access to near to zero percent tranches of cash ....let's get it placed. The property market is off limits, let's turn to vehicle finance, and like property before, it cascaded down the food chain to the point it was getting ridiculous to who would get a green light to finance.

Although...I guess if on one side you're coming in at zero percent as the provider, the margin gain on vehicle finance is bigger than property (hmm..I'm now thinking this may be connected to the current scandal??)

Furthermore looking from the outside, what
also happened with vehicles (as I mentioned in an earlier post) is second hand prices, over COVID and since, have been so strong, it earned a big sweetener on top of their standard calculations when the lease/contract sales term has completed or even repo'd...further underpinning finances.

 

[P.D.]

Think leasing is now knocking around 30% of new registrations.
Obviously was one upon a time a business thing but new markets are always sort, so personal leasing got joe public into cars they could never really afford otherwise. People see it as just another rolling monthly expense. Problem is (as PD alluded too) the monthly payments are quite pricey now for standard cars and when you combine that with the inflation on your other fixed monthly expenses, it can put you in a tough spot.

Lease companies are probably been doing well as the second hand market prices have been solid since covid...so those 2,3,4 year lease contracts are probably well in their favour on expiry.

I think it's EV depreciation that's giving them headaches.

I'd think leases are more than 30%, who's actually buying a brand new car these days. Guess I'm maybe missing out businesses but I expect they just lease them in bulk.

I mean on the school drop off there's stacks of Mercs, Range Rovers, Audi's, Teslas etc and these parents are mostly in their 40's and must have them all on lease. Every time I park somewhere most of the cars are less than 5 years old and SUVs so it's mostly families. I can understand older people without a mortgage splashing out but not sure how the others manage. Maybe I'm just jealous, I mean I earn a decent wage but with a mortgage, nursery fees etc it all adds up - I suppose once nursery fees drop off that would free up some cash.

Must be an incredibly lucrative industry, garages are falling over themselves to serve you up a car.

 

[johnola]

Found out I underestimated my holiday allowance at work. There is an allowance for ‘floating’ holidays which I thought were bank holidays - that you could work on if you so wanted. But no it is bank holidays plus four additional days off for you to observe cultural or religious days at your leisure.

A massive bonus.

 

[glasgowspur]

Found out I underestimated my holiday allowance at work. There is an allowance for ‘floating’ holidays which I thought were bank holidays - that you could work on if you so wanted. But no it is bank holidays plus four additional days off for you to observe cultural or religious days at your leisure.

A massive bonus.

As someone who is uncultured and with no religion I feel left out.

 

[johnola]

Actually found out those four days are for Christmas and Easter and you can work and take the floaters another time instead. So am back to my crappy quota.

I had five more holidays than this 28 years ago.

 

[Glenda's Legs]

As someone who is uncultured and with no religion I feel left out.

Before removing all limits on annual leave, my last company had a “”Wellness Day” on top of the annual leave allowance, but you didn’t have to use it for any particular wellness activity. Just another day’s allowance.

 

[Grays_1890]

Before removing all limits on annual leave, my last company had a “”Wellness Day” on top of the annual leave allowance, but you didn’t have to use it for any particular wellness activity. Just another day’s allowance.

When I was last PAYE the company I was with in healthcare was brilliant for time. Wellness Day, Sick Days where you got 2 a year to just phone in and say you were sick, with no questions asked, 3 duvet days, Birthday off. The culture of work was brilliant, for that and other reasons, was best I have worked in

 

[nelto]

So, yesterday actually, but drama continuing into today.
Woke up with a sore chest at 6.30 am. Thought this is not good, might pass. It didn’t, phoned 999. Ambulance arrived 40 mins later. Paramedics did an ecg. Immediately strapped up and blue lighted to hospital. Straight into cardio theatre for a stent. Still in hospital getting more tests, need another angiogram as well. Feeling a lot better after being freaked out and honestly couldn’t give a flying fudge about Eze

 

[Glenda's Legs]

So, yesterday actually, but drama continuing into today.
Woke up with a sore chest at 6.30 am. Thought this is not good, might pass. It didn’t, phoned 999. Ambulance arrived 40 mins later. Paramedics did an ecg. Immediately strapped up and blue lighted to hospital. Straight into cardio theatre for a stent. Still in hospital getting more tests, need another angiogram as well. Feeling a lot better after being freaked out and honestly couldn’t give a flying fudge about Eze

Glad you're feeling better and very glad indeed that you rang 999.
I had similar 16 years ago, really wasn't sure if it was something worth calling an ambulance about, but it was.
Take it steady, and maybe avoid watching Spurs for a bit!

 

[nelto]

Glad you're feeling better and very glad indeed that you rang 999.
I had similar 16 years ago, really wasn't sure if it was something worth calling an ambulance about, but it was.
Take it steady, and maybe avoid watching Spurs for a bit!

I googled the symptoms before calling 999. It said that they were nearest to angina. If I had believed that I’d be dead. The pain got so that I had to phone though.
I would urge everyone not to mess around if this ever happens to you.
Phone 999!

 

[Diamond Lights]

So, yesterday actually, but drama continuing into today.
Woke up with a sore chest at 6.30 am. Thought this is not good, might pass. It didn’t, phoned 999. Ambulance arrived 40 mins later. Paramedics did an ecg. Immediately strapped up and blue lighted to hospital. Straight into cardio theatre for a stent. Still in hospital getting more tests, need another angiogram as well. Feeling a lot better after being freaked out and honestly couldn’t give a flying fudge about Eze

whilst i am glad you are ok... 40mins wait for an Ambulance... not good.

 

[nelto]

whilst i am glad you are ok... 40mins wait for an Ambulance... not good.

That was the scary part. My wife was over in Glasgow, so I was alone.

 

[Rorschach]

When I was last PAYE the company I was with in healthcare was brilliant for time. Wellness Day, Sick Days where you got 2 a year to just phone in and say you were sick, with no questions asked, 3 duvet days, Birthday off. The culture of work was brilliant, for that and other reasons, was best I have worked in

That sounds great.

I'm in week 3 or a 4 week 'shorter working year' thingie at the moment. I still have all my hols as well but I take an extra month off in the summer and take the hit in my wages. Defo worth it for me.