Putin & Russia

[Rorschach]

Ukrainians upping their drone game

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

414th Unmanned Strike Aviation phalanx 'Birds of Magyar' at work.

bsky.app

 

[monkeybarry]

Not so sure. Our proximity to Russia and the strategic importance of the Barents sea/Spitzbergen makes us vulnerable, and will probably spur Norwegian politicians to seek closer cooperation with the rest of Europe. Especially considering how Trump has sowed doubt on the future strength of Nato.

We used to, and still do, rely on US support through Nato, but with more insecurity about that relationship, Norway will look elsewhere - like with the defense cooperation with the UK.

I was completely ignorant to the land border, and to quite how significant the sea is.

What do you think the military or political benefit is for joining the EU, as apposed to just staying in NATO?

 

[monkeybarry]

Looking at the list of countries I think we are looking at a preemptive resource grab, or the start of that strategy at least. Plenty of wars have been fought over resources before of course but frequently the driver of those wars was greed. This is a little different IMO. It believe these moves are to do with a looming scarcity, and hoarding of resources before things collapse.
Europe has one chance to kick the chair out from under Russia in Ukraine before this gathers momentum.

Mexico - tacos and burritos
Greenland - ice
Canada - maple syrup
Ukraine - vodka

Guy just wants a party

 

[Rorschach]

Mexico - tacos and burritos
Greenland - ice
Canada - maple syrup
Ukraine - vodka

Guy just wants a party

End of the World Party in Mar-a-lago.

 

[Grays_1890]

I h

The get out is, if the driving force really is down to just a handful of operators (dictators)...it don't take much for them to be eliminated (black ops or otherwise) if the general behind the scenes feeling is this is madness.

Its got to be......No one can accept this level of lies............surely?

Why is no one on a global scale shaming this sh1t politically? Its the worst level of lying I have seen in politics and thats saying stuff.

Musk and Doge going after condoms for a country that he could not get right WHILST taking money from his own people to prop up wild dreams..................Honestly..........anyone buying it needs a look in the mirror

 

[Gutter Boy]

The get out is, if the driving force really is down to just a handful of operators (dictators)...it don't take much for them to be eliminated (black ops or otherwise) if the general behind the scenes feeling is this is madness.

Where are all the good assassins hiding? 2 quick pop shots and the world becomes a much happier place again

 

[Mr Gogolak]

I very rarely partake in these conversations but I enjoy lurking here because, depending on where you live, there's such a different perspective on these matters. For the sake of controversy, let me offer mine, as someone who spends a few months a year in Croatia and the rest of his time in Paris.

Last night, Macron said he wants to raise the military budget from 2.1 to 5% of the GDP. Good luck with that in a country where the deficit has been described as 'out of control' for two years in a row. Where is he going to take that money? Hospitals? Courts? Social Security? Poverty is rampant in France. A third of the inhabitants can't go to the dentist or have three meals a day. I'm sure they'd be willing to sacrifice even more to defend the borders of a country they couldn't care less about four years ago.

EU members are thus going to do the only thing they do when they have a problem: create more debt. Which was an easy way to deal with everything so long as Germany was bankrolling the whole thing but that is no longer the case and all the studies I've read so far are very pessimistic for Germany's model.

Now that we are effectively cut off Russia's (relatively) cheap energy, we heavily depend on other countries (US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia...) who, fortunately, are very nice and friendly.

The idea that Europe is stronger when it stands together is bogus. Some countries immensely benefit from it: Baltic States, for instance. But if you're French, what do you get out of it? EU apologists will answer 'access to a huge market of 550m customer' but that didn't make France any stronger over the past 40 years - far from it. It was just two countries (Germany and France) raising the standard of living in neighbouring countries in order develop their market. Unfortunately, one doesn't produce anything anymore and the other is finding out that its model doesn't work without access to cheap energy.

There would be a lot to say about the situation in Ukraine itself - even more so when you used to live in Yugoslavia... - but I think it's actually a moot point: at this stage, Europe can't do anything about it. Putin and Trump know it and that's why they didn't bother to invite anyone to the party. Last but not least, the fertility rate in France is 1,68 child/woman. Then you have a president that is so beloved that every time he takes a controversial decision, you're in for two weeks of civil unrest. I'm not sure parents would trust him with their kids' lives...

Again, don't read too much into it, even if it offends you - I just thought it'd be interesting to offer a slightly different point of view on that matter.

 

[Robbo]

I was completely ignorant to the land border, and to quite how significant the sea is.

What do you think the military or political benefit is for joining the EU, as apposed to just staying in NATO?

I think it's more a case of needing to rather than wanting to.

I think Norway were generally happy to maintain status quo in regards to EU/NATO. Trump #2 has changed that. We can no longer rely on US support through NATO in a situation where Russia turns their aggression towards Norway.

A full scale invasion is not a probable scenario now, but hybrid warfare/hybrid incidents are already quite common in the northern parts of Norway, and is increasing in volume. Spitzbergen, with its Russian population and strategic location, is likely where brick could hit the fan, in some form or the other.

Despite our riches we are a small country, with limited military resources. We are vulnerable and dependent on reliable international relations. I think the madman in the white house has likely persuaded many Norwegian politicians that we can achieve this better by joining the EU.

Politically it would mean more influence and say in EU policy/decisions. Militarily a fully functioning NATO would've been sufficient, IMO. But with a dysfunctional US, NATO is weakened and some sort of "EU army" could suddenly be a plausible option. Norway wuold want to be a part of that.

This is not my field of expertise, BTW. I know little about the EU in general, but have knowledge about matters in Norway, obviously.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I very rarely partake in these conversations but I enjoy lurking here because, depending on where you live, there's such a different perspective on these matters. For the sake of controversy, let me offer mine, as someone who spends a few months a year in Croatia and the rest of his time in Paris.

Last night, Macron said he wants to raise the military budget from 2.1 to 5% of the GDP. Good luck with that in a country where the deficit has been described as 'out of control' for two years in a row. Where is he going to take that money? Hospitals? Courts? Social Security? Poverty is rampant in France. A third of the inhabitants can't go to the dentist or have three meals a day. I'm sure they'd be willing to sacrifice even more to defend the borders of a country they couldn't care less about four years ago.

EU members are thus going to do the only thing they do when they have a problem: create more debt. Which was an easy way to deal with everything so long as Germany was bankrolling the whole thing but that is no longer the case and all the studies I've read so far are very pessimistic for Germany's model.

Now that we are effectively cut off Russia's (relatively) cheap energy, we heavily depend on other countries (US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia...) who, fortunately, are very nice and friendly.

The idea that Europe is stronger when it stands together is bogus. Some countries immensely benefit from it: Baltic States, for instance. But if you're French, what do you get out of it? EU apologists will answer 'access to a huge market of 550m customer' but that didn't make France any stronger over the past 40 years - far from it. It was just two countries (Germany and France) raising the standard of living in neighbouring countries in order develop their market. Unfortunately, one doesn't produce anything anymore and the other is finding out that its model doesn't work without access to cheap energy.

There would be a lot to say about the situation in Ukraine itself - even more so when you used to live in Yugoslavia... - but I think it's actually a moot point: at this stage, Europe can't do anything about it. Putin and Trump know it and that's why they didn't bother to invite anyone to the party. Last but not least, the fertility rate in France is 1,68 child/woman. Then you have a president that is so beloved that every time he takes a controversial decision, you're in for two weeks of civil unrest. I'm not sure parents would trust him with their kids' lives...

Again, don't read too much into it, even if it offends you - I just thought it'd be interesting to offer a slightly different point of view on that matter.

I thought a 'war footing' was generally positive for economies in the short-to-medium term? It's almost Keynesian - investing in domestic infrastructure and jobs.

It's the one thing Trump did well in his first term (bring jobs back to the rust belt) and the main reason for the Nazi party's early domestic success (rearmament boosting the economy)

 

[Gutter Boy]

A full scale invasion is not a probable scenario now, but hybrid warfare/hybrid incidents are already quite common in the northern parts of Norway, and is increasing in volume. Spitzbergen, with its Russian population and strategic location, is likely where brick could hit the fan, in some form or the other.

Yeah I've read about Iorek Byrnison and the armoured bears up there. Mad brick.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

A full scale invasion is not a probable scenario now, but hybrid warfare/hybrid incidents are already quite common in the northern parts of Norway, and is increasing in volume.

Have you any examples of this. More details etc?

 

[Rorschach]

I thought a 'war footing' was generally positive for economies in the short-to-medium term? It's almost Keynesian - investing in domestic infrastructure and jobs.

It's the one thing Trump did well in his first term (bring jobs back to the rust belt) and the main reason for the Nazi party's early domestic success (rearmament boosting the economy)

Not sure that happened.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I very rarely partake in these conversations but I enjoy lurking here because, depending on where you live, there's such a different perspective on these matters. For the sake of controversy, let me offer mine, as someone who spends a few months a year in Croatia and the rest of his time in Paris.

Last night, Macron said he wants to raise the military budget from 2.1 to 5% of the GDP. Good luck with that in a country where the deficit has been described as 'out of control' for two years in a row. Where is he going to take that money? Hospitals? Courts? Social Security? Poverty is rampant in France. A third of the inhabitants can't go to the dentist or have three meals a day. I'm sure they'd be willing to sacrifice even more to defend the borders of a country they couldn't care less about four years ago.

EU members are thus going to do the only thing they do when they have a problem: create more debt. Which was an easy way to deal with everything so long as Germany was bankrolling the whole thing but that is no longer the case and all the studies I've read so far are very pessimistic for Germany's model.

Now that we are effectively cut off Russia's (relatively) cheap energy, we heavily depend on other countries (US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia...) who, fortunately, are very nice and friendly.

The idea that Europe is stronger when it stands together is bogus. Some countries immensely benefit from it: Baltic States, for instance. But if you're French, what do you get out of it? EU apologists will answer 'access to a huge market of 550m customer' but that didn't make France any stronger over the past 40 years - far from it. It was just two countries (Germany and France) raising the standard of living in neighbouring countries in order develop their market. Unfortunately, one doesn't produce anything anymore and the other is finding out that its model doesn't work without access to cheap energy.

There would be a lot to say about the situation in Ukraine itself - even more so when you used to live in Yugoslavia... - but I think it's actually a moot point: at this stage, Europe can't do anything about it. Putin and Trump know it and that's why they didn't bother to invite anyone to the party. Last but not least, the fertility rate in France is 1,68 child/woman. Then you have a president that is so beloved that every time he takes a controversial decision, you're in for two weeks of civil unrest. I'm not sure parents would trust him with their kids' lives...

Again, don't read too much into it, even if it offends you - I just thought it'd be interesting to offer a slightly different point of view on that matter.

I do love an anti-European European

We should celebrate Europe for its peace, culture and civility, and that we haven't had to waste huge sums of money on arms and military. Why so negative on this continent where you can be in Paris, Croatia, or zip back to London by train? Is it a growing old thing (older people just moan more!), or are there actual structural problems?

 

[DubSpur]

I thought a 'war footing' was generally positive for economies in the short-to-medium term? It's almost Keynesian - investing in domestic infrastructure and jobs.

It's the one thing Trump did well in his first term (bring jobs back to the rust belt) and the main reason for the Nazi party's early domestic success (rearmament boosting the economy)

It's a short term boost as money is pumped into rearming, building up defence industry, and more money in peoples pockets. But it leads to inflation, takes labour away from other industries, drives wages up across the board, leads to other industries not being competative and not able to fill orders due to the labour shortages. When the war is over, defence spending and defence jobs are gone, the other industries will already been out of business or struggling as customers will have gone to other countries to get goods. Short term boom, medium to long-term collapse. Russia's economy is already heading into trouble with high inflation and interest rates https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0217/1497275-russias-economy/

 

[Trixster]

Have you any examples of this. More details etc?

Under sea cable infrastructure would be one, quite a few recent incidents.

 

[Mr Gogolak]

I thought a 'war footing' was generally positive for economies in the short-to-medium term? It's almost Keynesian - investing in domestic infrastructure and jobs.

It's the one thing Trump did well in his first term (bring jobs back to the rust belt) and the main reason for the Nazi party's early domestic success (rearmament boosting the economy)

I believe you are correct but each situation is different. Again, I can't claim any particular knowledge in this field, but I'd say that coal was still one of the best energy sources in the 1930s and it was easily accessible. Thanks to its nuclear power plants, France is certainly in a better position but what's the point of a direct confrontation with Russia at this stage? There's nothing to be gained for a country like France: Trump will seize Ukraine's resources no matter what, so what would they be fighting for? Ideals?

Let's stay Putin stands down or the Russians somehow lose the war - what's in it for the French? They would have spent billions, suffered unimaginable losses... for what?

Same goes for a lot of 'smaller' European countries. If it looks like the EU will wage a full-scale war on Russia, countries like Slovakia, Croatia, Hungary and possibly Romania, depending on what happens with the elections, will be looking for a quick exit.

 

[Mr Gogolak]

I do love an anti-European European

We should celebrate Europe for its peace, culture and civility, and that we haven't had to waste huge sums of money on arms and military. Why so negative on this continent where you can be in Paris, Croatia, or zip back to London by train? Is it a growing old thing (older people just moan more!), or are there actual structural problems?

I think it's important to draw a line between Europe and European Union here.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't live anywhere else in the world if given a choice. There are so many things to enjoy on that continent we could spend the rest of our lives debating them.

The EU is slightly different, in that - in my opinion and for what it's worth - it's built on a fallacy. You can't eat your cake and have it. On the one hand, you have national politicians making decisions based on what they feel is their country's best interest (hopefully...) and then you have the European Commission making completely different decisions on the same issues (again, regardless of the fact that corruption is a huge issue within the EU but that's a different matter).

That leaves you with politicians with absolutely zero strategic vision. Why would they need one? They just have to follow the Commission's guidelines. What's more they don't feel responsible for anything: it's not their fault, they've been told to do so or they simply took advantage of something that was there. The Greek debt crisis was just that and so if the upcoming French debt crisis. For all their shortcomings, the Germans bankrolled that (more or less).

The EU's strength is that it has become synonymous with European cooperation. In most people's minds, it's either the EU or some sort of 19th-century chaos. Also, I find it ironic that it stands for peace when it's obvious it wants a war with Russia at the moment (at least, some member States do).

As with all things in life, it's not black and white. There were plenty of good things done these past 40 years and even with the best intentions (and again, I'm not sure everyone had them in the first place) it's not easy to fine-tune an economy to serve needs as diverse as those of a whole continent. Having said that, I do believe (again, from my readings) that the energy price is a game-changer and it's something that will impact us for a long, long time. Hope I'm wrong, though.

 

[Robbo]

Have you any examples of this. More details etc?

A few from memory:

- GPS jams are quite common, especially close to the Russian border.
- Russian nationals have been arrested and expelled from Norway for entering high security areas illegally.
- Russian, or Russian connected trawlers/other vessels frequently navigate close to Norwegian military bases and undersea cables. Often with odd patterns of movement.
- Cyber attacks are common.
- Pro Russian vandalism/grafitti in Norwegian cities close to the border.
- Increased suspicious drone activity close to airports and military bases.

Police in northern Norway have reported a worrying increase in these "security threatening" incidents during the past few years.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I think it's important to draw a line between Europe and European Union here.

The EU is a means to collaborate and to run a customs union. There isn't an EU army for example. Most EU laws stem from having one continuous custom union covering a diaspora of nations. Few think the customs union is a bad thing, but you have to have quality standards, food standards to have that effective shared customs union. But the EU only implements laws that are agreed across all nations.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't live anywhere else in the world if given a choice. There are so many things to enjoy on that continent we could spend the rest of our lives debating them.

The EU is slightly different, in that - in my opinion and for what it's worth - it's built on a fallacy. You can't eat your cake and have it. On the one hand, you have national politicians making decisions based on what they feel is their country's best interest (hopefully...) and then you have the European Commission making completely different decisions on the same issues (again, regardless of the fact that corruption is a huge issue within the EU but that's a different matter).

You would get rid of the customs union? You'd give up free movement?

That leaves you with politicians with absolutely zero strategic vision. Why would they need one? They just have to follow the Commission's guidelines. What's more they don't feel responsible for anything: it's not their fault, they've been told to do so or they simply took advantage of something that was there. The Greek debt crisis was just that and so if the upcoming French debt crisis. For all their shortcomings, the Germans bankrolled that (more or less).

You wrote about French spending on arms. Were they autonomous? Did they follow the Commission? Did they feel powerless to have their own strategic vision?

EU laws allow for open trade and unify the terms of that trade. Of course, laws on the quality of produce, competition law, equal standards, and equal subsidies become highly complex and detailed. But nation-states and their governments are far far more important than EU trade laws. I don't buy that national politicians feel powerless. It just isn't true. Has there been a marked shift in the UK in this regard, now that we have left? Where is all this autonomy and newfound strategic vision that should have flooded over us, if what you are saying is true?

The EU's strength is that it has become synonymous with European cooperation. In most people's minds, it's either the EU or some sort of 19th-century chaos.

What forum for cooperation would you put in place? A body to oversee collaboration and fairness across a continent. Maybe you could have representatives from each nation there, and have a place where they could discuss issues and work together?

Also, I find it ironic that it stands for peace when it's obvious it wants a war with Russia at the moment (at least, some member States do).

There has been peace in Europe since the EU, apart from the Yugoslav war which you'll know about I am sure. It shows that conflict is quite possible in europe. And how europe and the us intervened is one of the very few examples of a successful military intervention. Maybe the lack of oil and resources made it simpler!

As with all things in life, it's not black and white. There were plenty of good things done these past 40 years

Yes. From allowing you to move freely across the continent with complete liberty. To exchange programmes, cross boarder ressearch and engineering projects, to snuffing out war in Yugoslavia, to facilitating free and open trade...

and even with the best intentions (and again, I'm not sure everyone had them in the first place) it's not easy to fine-tune an economy to serve needs as diverse as those of a whole continent. Having said that, I do believe (again, from my readings) that the energy price is a game-changer and it's something that will impact us for a long, long time. Hope I'm wrong, though.

Europe is stronger together. Baltic states must feel far more secure facing Russia being in the EU. As are larger nations like France, who knows how the UK will coordinate with the EU nations now.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

A few from memory:

- GPS jams are quite common, especially close to the Russian border.
- Russian nationals have been arrested and expelled from Norway for entering high security areas illegally.
- Russian, or Russian connected trawlers/other vessels frequently navigate close to Norwegian military bases and undersea cables. Often with odd patterns of movement.
- Cyber attacks are common.
- Pro Russian vandalism/grafitti in Norwegian cities close to the border.
- Increased suspicious drone activity close to airports and military bases.

Police in northern Norway have reported a worrying increase in these "security threatening" incidents during the past few years.

Have you got a 'hard' border up there or is it simple to crossover if you wanted to?