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Predict The Run In

It would be foolish to over look Arsenal or write them off, after last year they proved they were capable of overtunrning a seemingly insurmountable lead and still finish above us

They have the easier run in compared to ours on paper but run in's rarely go according to predictions (I mean I am sure most Arsenal fans were expecting us to drop 2 points at least from our last two games)

What's slightly worrying is that Arsenal have a lot of the weaker teams in the league to play and that this year they have been fairly strong and efficient and turning over these times (where as in the past they have tending to over perform against the strong teams and drop sloppying points against the smaller teams)

They looked pretty good against us if I am honest, but they were blunt upfront and at times comical in defense. They're clearly not as good as they once were and seriously need to strengthen in the summer (which I think they probably will making this chance to over haul them a very important one potentially)

I'd see the Reading, West Brom, Fulham, Wigan and even Norwich games as Arsenal wins

Potential banana skins away to Swansea (although they might not be as focused after their carling cup win) QPR depending on their relegation fight and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (again if they need a result on the last day)

With the Everton and Man U games representing the teams most likely to beat or take points of Arsenal

But it's all so difficult to predict, I mean who ever thought Chelsea would lose to Saudi Sportswashing Machine? or drop points from winnning positions against Reading and Southampton for example?

I think this weekend could be critical, if we manage to beat Liverpool we will have put ourselves in a very very strong position.....especially if Swansea do us a favour
 
I decided to visualize my guesstimates:

raceforclprediction.png


Everton have a big say currently with Arse (A) and City (H) in their next two games.
 
Yea would be great if Everton picked up draws from both those games, would stop them gaining on us whilst slowing both Arsenal and City

Not unlikely really either because Everton are somewhat draw specialists with their stubborn well organised defense and lack of real quality up front
 
I'm useless at guessing results but I will say this. On paper we have a difficult run in, but rather than that being a negative, I think its a positive. Our boys love the big games- they don't shy away from them!

To be honest games against so called weaker teams are more worrying- teams that can park the bus and be difficult to break down. I fancy our chances against any team that comes to play footbal with the pace in our team.
 
We seem to be starting to play very attractive, effective football from the back to the midfield with a slight question mark over our strikers, but I too facny us against any team that tries to play us. We have a really good positive momentum at the moment, and we only have to worry about how we play. If we play well, we will get enough points on this run in. I believe we can do this!
 
This weekend can have had a massive impact on the run-in, even though most of our competitors for champions league spots didn't play league games.

1. Has Wigan entered their invincible-mode, as they always do this time of year? They destroyed Everton in three minutes. Morale boost. Will face us, City and Arse*al. Dangerous match for us.
2. Chelsea will have to play a replay vs Manchester United, and the winner will face Emirates Marketing Project in the FA-cup semi final. Already congested fixture-list for all parties. This can only be good for us.
3. QPR may finally have woken up and smelled the coffee. As they face Arse*al, Everton and Liverpool, they can have a major impact on who comes closest to us.
4. Momentum. After losing to Liverpool today in a rather harsh way, we MUST bounce back immediately next weekend vs. Fulham. Bale gets "rested" vs Inter midweek. I hope AVB lets Parker sit this one out as well, and give Thud and/or Carrol a chance.
 
glorygloryeze said:
I came into this thread with great interest and I wanted to highlight how some of the predictions were, well, overconfident in our often toothless side that is reliant a little too much on Bale,plus vulnerable defensively if attacked straight through the middle a bit more than before with the Sandro-Dembele axis broken up(again).
So I did my own predictions as well:

ChelseaTottenhamArsenalEvertonLiverpool
Wigan (H) – W Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H) – W Sunderland (A) – D Man Utd (A) – L West Brom (H) – W
Emirates Marketing Project (A) – L West Ham (A) – W Aston Villa (A)- W Norwich (A) – D Swansea (H) – D
West Brom (H) – W Arsenal (H) – W Tottenham (A) – L Reading (H) – W Wigan (A) – W
Fulham (A) – D Liverpool (A) – L Everton (H) – D Arsenal (A) – D Tottenham (H) – W
West Ham (H) – W Fulham (H) – W Swansea (A) – W Emirates Marketing Project (H) – D Southampton (A) – D
Southampton (A) – W Swansea (A) – W Reading (H) – W Stoke (H) – W Aston Villa (A) – W
Sunderland (H) – W Everton (H) – W West Brom (A) – D Tottenham (A) – L West Ham (H) – W
Tottenham (H) – L Chelsea (A) – W Norwich (H) – W QPR (H) – W Reading (A) – L
Liverpool (A) – D Emirates Marketing Project (H) – D Fulham (A)- W Sunderland (A) – W Chelsea (H) – D
Swansea (H) – D Wigan (A)- W Man Utd (H)- L Fulham (H)- W Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A) – L
Man Utd (A)- L Southampton (H) – D QPR (A) - L Liverpool (A)- D Everton (H) – D
Aston Villa (A) – W Stoke (A) – D Wigan (H) – W West Ham (H) – W Fulham (A) – W
Everton (H) – W Sunderland (H) – W Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A) – D Chelsea (A) – L QPR (H) – W

So...

Predicted Chelsea points haul: 24
Predicted Tottenham points haul: 30
Predicted Arsenal points haul: 22
Predicted Everton points haul: 22
Predicted Liverpool points haul: 25

Final placings:
Tottenham – 75
Chelsea – 70
Everton – 64
Arsenal -64
Liverpool - 61


F---Me - I'm as deluded as the rest of you:eek:
Click to expand...

Well, erm, i guess we're sort of on our 'trajectory'....8-[
 
As many times as we do them, we just dont know for sure. Arsenal are quite capable of picking up 24pts from those last 10 fixtures, but who knows what effect Weds night could have on them.
Obviously there arent out yet, but the smart money has to be on Bayern progressing, but how wll they react from it at Swansea? I'm no expecting any Welsh favours and that game isnt one of the 6pts I think they could drop,but you just never know.

Bearing in mind our relative GD's we may need 18pts from the games to guarantee 4th. It has been mentioned by others, out target has to be 4 home wins out of the 5 and 2 away wins out of the 4. Tough ask, 6 wins from 9 games. We may need a couple of additional favours
 
Emirates Marketing ProjectTottenhamChelseaArsenal
Wigan (H)Fulham (A)Everton (H)
Saudi Sportswashing Machine (H)Swansea (A)Southampton (A)Reading (H)
Man Utd (A)Everton (H)Sunderland (H)West Brom (A)
West Brom (H)Chelsea (A)Tottenham (H)Norwich (H)
Tottenham (A)Emirates Marketing Project (H)Liverpool (A)Fulham (A)
West Ham (H)Wigan (A)Swansea (H)Man Utd (H)
Swansea (A)Southampton (H)Man Utd (A)QPR (A)
Reading (A)Stoke (A)Aston Villa (A)Wigan (H)
Norwich (H)Sunderland (H)Everton (H)Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A)

I'll weight the teams as follows, expected number of points in brackets (home/away):

Top 1: Man Utd (0/0, anything here is a bonus)

CL contenders: Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal (1/1, 6 points in total)

Mid table: Everton, Liverpool, Swansea, West Brom, Stoke, Sunderland, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Fulham, Norwich, West Ham (3/1, 40 points in total)

Bottom 5: QPR, Wigan, Southampton, Reading, Aston Villa (3/3, 30 points in total)

If anyone matched this over the course of a season they would get 76 points, leaving some margin for fudgeups. :) It's mostly intended to rate the different run ins and you never know when teams will start to switch off towards the end of the season.

As it stands:

Emirates Marketing Project 59
Chelsea 55
Tottenham 54
Arsenal 50

Come end of season:

Emirates Marketing Project 79 (20/27 points won)
Chelsea 73 (18/27 points won)
Tottenham 70 (16/24 points won)
Arsenal 68 (18/27 points won)

Assuming the teams fighting relegation put up a fight and get a draw at home:

Emirates Marketing Project 77
Chelsea 69
Tottenham 68
Arsenal 66

Using last season's results from the same fixtures:

Emirates Marketing Project 83
Chelsea 72
Tottenham 68
Arsenal 61

*all this assuming I've counted correctly when adding up
 
Got a feeling this will go to the last day of the season again, it then lets the scum either poison us or buy off a goalkeeper to get into the CL places.
 
Reading that post from Jordinho has actually given me a little more optimism than I had last night. Swansea is such a key game now, and sets the tone for the final 7 matches.
I still dont think we are in freefall just yet, but defeat at the Liberty sends us into the game Everton in a tough position, bearing in mind we have a game on the Thursday night inbetween too
 
paxtonwolf said:
Reading that post from Jordinho has actually given me a little more optimism than I had last night. Swansea is such a key game now, and sets the tone for the final 7 matches.
I still dont think we are in freefall just yet, but defeat at the Liberty sends us into the game Everton in a tough position, bearing in mind we have a game on the Thursday night inbetween too
Click to expand...

The next two games are must win. Swansea have nothing to play for and Everton will be without Fellaini and Pienaar.
 
Being in Swansea i'll keep my ear open on what the feeling is. Bumped into angel rangel in the fruit and veg isle at tescos last week if it happens again i'll ask him if they are up for it.

i do know they are on a bonus scheme,the higher they go the bigger the bonus,at the monent there is a bit of a gap between them and the sides below so who knows !!
 
paxtonwolf said:
Reading that post from Jordinho has actually given me a little more optimism than I had last night. Swansea is such a key game now, and sets the tone for the final 7 matches.
I still dont think we are in freefall just yet, but defeat at the Liberty sends us into the game Everton in a tough position, bearing in mind we have a game on the Thursday night inbetween too
Click to expand...

Yes Paxton,

However, I am lost at the moment.
The game against Fulham , was a banker for us. It did not happen.
So I have no idea if we will win the games that "should" be winnable.
On the other hand we may win or draw the ones that we think we will lose.
I think I will take one game at a time and see how it goes.

Just hope and pray, we come out of this in the top 4 [-o<

I think I am going to my rooftop bar, have a few beers, look at the ocean, and look for inspiration.
COYS
 
We've now got Swansea (A), Everton (H) ,Chelsea (A) and City (H). 5 or 6 points from that and I'd actually consider taking it now, especially if it includes a win over Everton and a draw at Chelsea or vice versa. Think we might need a little help from someone as Arsenal's run looks tinkle easy apart from ManU and possibly West Brom (A) and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A).

Our final 4 matches are Wigan (A), Southampton (H), Stoke (A), Sunderland (H) and we probably have to win them all.
 
Jordinho said:
We've now got Swansea (A), Everton (H) ,Chelsea (A) and City (H). 5 or 6 points from that and I'd actually consider taking it now, especially if it includes a win over Everton and a draw at Chelsea or vice versa. Think we might need a little help from someone as Arsenal's run looks tinkle easy apart from ManU and possibly West Brom (A) and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A).

Our final 4 matches are Wigan (A), Southampton (H), Stoke (A), Sunderland (A) and we probably have to win them all.
Click to expand...

Yes, looks like 71pts could be the magic figure for the whichever team wants 4th. 21 from 27 for Arsenal, or 17 from 24 for us.
5 wins 2 draws has to be the minimum target
 
Jordinho said:
We've now got Swansea (A), Everton (H) ,Chelsea (A) and City (H). 5 or 6 points from that and I'd actually consider taking it now, especially if it includes a win over Everton and a draw at Chelsea or vice versa. Think we might need a little help from someone as Arsenal's run looks tinkle easy apart from ManU and possibly West Brom (A) and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A).

Our final 4 matches are Wigan (A), Southampton (H), Stoke (A), Sunderland (A) and we probably have to win them all.
Click to expand...

Sunderland Home, isn't it?
 
Stoke away is fudging difficult though.


I think we're more likely to beat Everton or City at home than we are to beat Stoke away.
 
I think i heard during the everton game fellaini is banned for the next two games,so he's out when they play us plus pinnear as well.

Any little thing helps i say.
 
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