Politics, politics, politics

[scaramanga]

My take away: you couldn't simply outline how no deal would be a success. Don't need sources, just your reasoned logic.

I've done so on numerous occasions in this thread. Countless times I've used published, independent figures to show what can be done and every single time you've ignored it and repeated the same thing you were saying before I did so, like some kind of bot. That's why I refuse to engage on on of this with you until or unless you are able to refute what I've already written.

 

[scaramanga]

There is no re-negotiation of the backstop though, at least not one that they would accept. As far as I can tell, she will go back to Parliament with the same deal. She's just running the clock down.

Nothing will change. She still has a deal parliament won't vote for, she still has a majority of parliament that don't want Corbyn.

It's limbo until or unless she lets go of her deal and/or resigns.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I've done so on numerous occasions in this thread. Countless times I've used published, independent figures to show what can be done and every single time you've ignored it and repeated the same thing you were saying before I did so, like some kind of bot. That's why I refuse to engage on on of this with you until or unless you are able to refute what I've already written.

Do you mean you expect me to read your post and convert to your view? Are you confusing reading and contesting with ignoring? I'd suggest that if you were clear and confident with your logic, you could unfurl it in a couple of sentences without a detailed disseration.

 

[the dza]

They'll be some token clarification or guidance which nods to the ERGs demands. She'll come up with something that just allows them to save face. THe backstop is only if no trade deal is made, so it's a bit ott isn't it? It's become the focus when the bigger piece is the effects on the economy - £6,000 worse off per person the BoE estimates under this deal, is that right?

Then there is the lack of sovrignity under May's deal. Brexiteers will tell you that control and sovrignity are key, more than immigration, so not sure how you can accept a deal where we are still beholden to the European court. Of course the reality is that the European court ruling on some trade things is not a big deal. However, if the ERG effectively accept that, then it shows their whole premise is flawed.

The long streak of p1ss, Muggy-Mogg was just on the news. He's the ERG poster boy. He said that for them to vote for it, May has to get rid of the backstop. That's not on the table, as far as I'm aware. He is calling for her to resign, she will come under a lot of pressure to do so imo, but I don't think she will.

 

[scaramanga]

Do you mean you expect me to read your post and convert to your view? Are you confusing reading and contesting with ignoring? I'd suggest that if you were clear and confident with your logic, you could unfurl it in a couple of sentences without a detailed disseration.

I have backed this up with numbers but the simple answer is using the taxes gained on EU imports to discount EU exports keeps us more than competitive at no loss to the economy. Reducing regulation and taxes keeps business in the UK - especially by competing with the EU in that way.

The EU can't force Euro transactions to be made within the EU, their own courts already decided that, brass plating will take care of the rest.

Massively reduced import and labour costs will make any EU exports more competitive than anything they can produce, so even without tariff negation by the government, we'll still be able to increase exports.

I've already laid this out in detail over and over again. You've yet to make any attempt at doing any more than repeating tabloid headline standard soundbites from your echo chamber. If you want the detail it's all in this thread, had you had the decency to take any of those points on board in the first place then discussion would have moved far past here by now.

 

[scaramanga]

They'll be some token clarification or guidance which nods to the ERGs demands. She'll come up with something that just allows them to save face. THe backstop is only if no trade deal is made, so it's a bit ott isn't it? It's become the focus when the bigger piece is the effects on the economy - £6,000 worse off per person the BoE estimates under this deal, is that right?

Then there is the lack of sovrignity under May's deal. Brexiteers will tell you that control and sovrignity are key, more than immigration, so not sure how you can accept a deal where we are still beholden to the European court. Of course the reality is that the European court ruling on some trade things is not a big deal. However, if the ERG effectively accept that, then it shows their whole premise is flawed.

The ERG won't accept the backstop under any circumstances and rightly so. Even if they did (they won't), the DUP wouldn't.

Best bet now is a Norway(-) deal which would probably earn enough Labour votes to balance out the ERG.

 

[Parklaner81]

I was thinking re; a parliamentary vote of no confidence.
He knows now there are appx 100 Tories that would go with it (some wouldn't get involved). But does he want to align himself the likes of Rees Mogg etc

I very much doubt that 10, nevermind 100, tories would vote with Corbyn in a parliamentary vote of no confidence. Voting against May in an internal party poll is one thing. Doing so in a parliamentary vote is something else entirely, and I don't think the former can be taken as indicative of the latter.

 

[Parklaner81]

With tale between their legs, they back May's deal with the backstop re-negotiated. Quite some U-turn, presumably in the face of another referendum. But will they be enough to carry the deal? It's still a bad deal, still doesn't deliver sovrignity, still probably leaves the UK worse off financially.

How would backing the deal with the backstop renegotiated be a U-turn? The backstop is the point of objection for most tories, isn't it? Getting it renegotiated gets the deal through.

 

[the dza]

It looks like it will all come back to the DUP. May is gonna come back with a deal nobody wants, especially the DUP. She is now stuck as Tory Party leader for 12 months. She's also (apparently) said she will not lead them into the next General Election. Labour will put forward a confidence motion after the vote (assuming May loses). DUP want rid of May...only 1 way to do it now. Pull the plug.

 

[spasm]

I have backed this up with numbers but the simple answer is using the taxes gained on EU imports to discount EU exports keeps us more than competitive at no loss to the economy. Reducing regulation and taxes keeps business in the UK - especially by competing with the EU in that way.

The EU can't force Euro transactions to be made within the EU, their own courts already decided that, brass plating will take care of the rest.

Massively reduced import and labour costs will make any EU exports more competitive than anything they can produce, so even without tariff negation by the government, we'll still be able to increase exports.

I've already laid this out in detail over and over again. You've yet to make any attempt at doing any more than repeating tabloid headline standard soundbites from your echo chamber. If you want the detail it's all in this thread, had you had the decency to take any of those points on board in the first place then discussion would have moved far past here by now.

But who will be left to clean the toilets at competitive prices?

Sent from my SM-J600G using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[P.D.]

Where is Corbyn in all this, it's time he stopped sitting in the middle and laid out their stance with a proper alternative people can analyse. He can't be half in, half out just waiting for something to happen. I'm surprised no one has pulled him up on those 6 tests like the one where they get the exact same benefits of the EU without being in it just because David Davis once said it. No one seems to have held them to account on how they're going to achieve that or what they are offering that's different.

I guess that's the benefit of being in opposition, you can just dismiss without putting forward much of a counter argument.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I have backed this up with numbers but the simple answer is using the taxes gained on EU imports to discount EU exports keeps us more than competitive at no loss to the economy. Reducing regulation and taxes keeps business in the UK - especially by competing with the EU in that way.

I like your faith in your own vision. And it is possible that the UK could turn around a hard Brexit...but only with significant time to restructure its economy (50 yrs according to Mogg) and there doesn't appear to be the vision or appetite for it. Maybe this would come when the reality of it occured. At the moment, not only don't most people see the oppotunity, no one on Leave's side can accurately articulate it. At least you gave it a punt.

• If we tax EU imports, that makes everything more expensive for businesses and consumers. Food has already gone up quite a bit over the past couple of years. The Bank of England who have all the relavent data, who's job it is to calculate and understand UK economics, using some of the most respected economists, say food prices could rise by upto 10%. That's massive. People significanty poorer.

Maybe longer term we could import food from Africa or other places, but we'd also need food safty checks and our own standards and customs agency infrastructure for that. And the reality is, Africa doesn't make cheese, wine, salami, not the sort we'd like to eat, and we'd still get most of our food from the EU.

• The one very simple fact we should keep in mind, all countries around the world trade most with their neighbours. Free trade with them is therefore optimal. Anything else is a work around, and suboptimal.

The EU can't force Euro transactions to be made within the EU, their own courts already decided that, brass plating will take care of the rest.

You're alluding to keeping the finance industry in the UK presumably. What is brass plating?

I've never thought the cliff edge predictions to be accurate with the banking industry. Instead of a sudden exodous, I thought there would be a steady decline in London's prominance. We'd still have a powerful banking facility. A bit like Zuric. Zuric was the banking capital before London, but because Switzerland is outside the EU, Credit Swiss and many other banks have their HQs in London. If the UK is on the periphery it would makes sense for institutions to move into the centre again. And its not just logic, 650 jobs have already gone into the EU (the BoE more recently said "fewer than 5000 jobs had left"). That equates to millions in lost tax revenue, spending in the UK etc. We don't know if Brexit will even occur yet. If it does, especially a hard exit, it is a certainty that more jobs would follow imo. I'm not sure how you can rationalise any other scenerio.

Similar applies to car manufacturing. Sure in the short term we could prop up failing manufacturing (subsidising loss making enterprises as you suggest), longer term when they need to re-tool they'll shift production to Slovakia or wherever (Range Rover already did). Why wouldn't they? Why be depended on hand outs to be sustainable, when government could take them away and cripple their operation?

Massively reduced import and labour costs will make any EU exports more competitive than anything they can produce, so even without tariff negation by the government, we'll still be able to increase exports.

Import costs from the EU wouldn't be "massively reduced" how do you figure that? Under WTO they would increase in cost. "Massively reduced labour cost" would require mass immigration (or mass unemployment). Can you really see any government sanctioning massive immigration? I would politely suggest this is a wish and prayer. It has no economic logic or sense. Imo.

I've already laid this out in detail over and over again. You've yet to make any attempt at doing any more than repeating tabloid headline standard soundbites from your echo chamber. If you want the detail it's all in this thread, had you had the decency to take any of those points on board in the first place then discussion would have moved far past here by now.

I hope you've felt I was 'decent' with my come back to you! I have keenly read all your missives. The fact that I don't accept them - take them on board - doesn't mean I don't apprecaite them or find them interesting. Maybe you'll come back on the points above and convince me I am wrong. I would love to be proved wrong and am open to it. But when the Bank of England makes such fervant projections as these:

Bank of England says no-deal Brexit would be worse than 2008 crisis
Bank warns of immediate economic crash, GDP to fall by 8%, unemployment to rise to 7.5%


...even with a margin for error (or hysteria) your projections are massively wide of most respected economists mark. I remain to be convinced.

 

[SpurMeUp]

How would backing the deal with the backstop renegotiated be a U-turn? The backstop is the point of objection for most tories, isn't it? Getting it renegotiated gets the deal through.

Well initially Boris was banging on about how he'd prefer to stay in the EU then accept being a rule taker under May's deal. He resigned from government on this premis, and it was his response to the published deal too. So I'd say it would be quite a u-turn. Especially on sovrignity. The ERG have always accepted making people poorer so there's no roll back there I guess.

All the backstop is, is an insurance policy to protect Ireland if the UK and EU don't reach a trade agreement. I don't see why it has taken on the cornerstone prominence it has.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Dup

I have backed this up with numbers but the simple answer is using the taxes gained on EU imports to discount EU exports keeps us more than competitive at no loss to the economy. Reducing regulation and taxes keeps business in the UK - especially by competing with the EU in that way.

The EU can't force Euro transactions to be made within the EU, their own courts already decided that, brass plating will take care of the rest.

Massively reduced import and labour costs will make any EU exports more competitive than anything they can produce, so even without tariff negation by the government, we'll still be able to increase exports.

I've already laid this out in detail over and over again. You've yet to make any attempt at doing any more than repeating tabloid headline standard soundbites from your echo chamber. If you want the detail it's all in this thread, had you had the decency to take any of those points on board in the first place then discussion would have moved far past here by now.

Even if your numbers add up (very debatable) politically this is a non goer so is still not a solution.

You won't get the votes for a low tax, no welfare state if it were possible the tories would have done it already.

 

[scaramanga]

But who will be left to clean the toilets at competitive prices?

Sent from my SM-J600G using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

I don't think we should reduce or restrict immigration. But without interference from the EU we are able to stop paying in and out of work benefits to those doing those jobs.

 

[scaramanga]

Dup

Even if your numbers add up (very debatable) politically this is a non goer so is still not a solution.

You won't get the votes for a low tax, no welfare state if it were possible the tories would have done it already.

They haven't been able to. We can move headline rates around, but they are underpinned by regulation that stops us from doing so.

Without the EU we'd be free to attract the likes of Apple, Amazon, etc.

 

[r-u-s-x]

They haven't been able to. We can move headline rates around, but they are underpinned by regulation that stops us from doing so.

Without the EU we'd be free to attract the likes of Apple, Amazon, etc.

Politically it is as impossible as GB's state owned controlled de-growth, its not an option.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

It's limbo until or unless she lets go of her deal and/or resigns.

It looks like it will all come back to the DUP. May is gonna come back with a deal nobody wants, especially the DUP. She is now stuck as Tory Party leader for 12 months. She's also (apparently) said she will not lead them into the next General Election. Labour will put forward a confidence motion after the vote (assuming May loses). DUP want rid of May...only 1 way to do it now. Pull the plug.

All points to another referendum, doesnt it?

If the Tories offer it, it breaks the deadlock in parliament. Either the deal gets voted for, and Parliament obliges, or Brexit gets voted down (something they'd love).

The question is only when they can spin the PR such that it sounds like their idea.

Where is Corbyn in all this, it's time he stopped sitting in the middle and laid out their stance with a proper alternative people can analyse. He can't be half in, half out just waiting for something to happen. I'm surprised no one has pulled him up on those 6 tests like the one where they get the exact same benefits of the EU without being in it just because David Davis once said it. No one seems to have held them to account on how they're going to achieve that or what they are offering that's different.

I guess that's the benefit of being in opposition, you can just dismiss without putting forward much of a counter argument.

He has been shocking throughout. Shameful.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Politically it is as impossible as GB's state owned controlled de-growth, its not an option.

Paradigm shifts do happen

In 1945 Attlee broke the pre-war economic consensus and brought in something radical (Keynsianism)

In 1979 Thatcher broke Attlee's post-war consensus and brought in something radical (neo-liberalism)

Now's the time to break neo-liberalism and bring in something radical (post-capitalism)

 

[Gutter Boy]

All points to another referendum, doesnt it?

If the Tories offer it, it breaks the deadlock in parliament. Either the deal gets voted for, and Parliament obliges, or Brexit gets voted down (something they'd love).

The question is only when they can spin the PR such that it sounds like their idea.



He has been shocking throughout. Shameful.

The DUP won't ever vote against the Tories in a vote of no confidence, because Corbyn is as staunch an Irish republican as you will ever find.

Corbyn isn't being shocking. He's being very clever. He's desperate for Brexit, but can't say so any more because the majority of his MPs aren't. So by being passive he gets what he wants, without fracturing his party. It's very deliberate. He just wants to inherit the post-Brexit country in 2022, ripe for his domestic reforms.