SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Have been thinking about Mercer and Renaissance Technologies. With a conspiracy theory hat on, Mercer's funding appears consistent with Russian aims - pro Trump, populism, disruptive as well as funding global warming deniers. Russia being so dependent on selling oil and gas Mercer's funding appears aligned with the Kremlin. And why would Mercer a mathematician and scientist, a man with a PHD want to deny global warming is occuring? Seems odd right?
On top of that Renaissance Technologies has a completely hidden investment fund which only employees can invest in. This fund makes the most money. It makes exceptional amounts. Consistently. While their other funds don't always make exceptional amounts (although these opento investor funds are highly successful there are years where they make nothing while the hidden fund makes massive gains). How these funds work is a complete mystery. Apparently they use Quarks - software that picks up on trends. Why has no one else been able to replicate it?
So far so compelling. Some claim the Renaissance Tech funds are used to launder money for Russia using high speed transactions to hide the scam. But enter James Simons. A gifted Jewish mathematician, he founded Renaissance Tech and hired the scientists, programmers, physicists etc who make up the firm. He's a Democrat who funds them generously and a philanthropist. He also had a clear vision for Renaissance Tech and a rationale - by using scientists and not traders to understand patterns etc. they do things differently. In short he's not an obvious Banks type that you could so easily identify as an agent of Russian intervention. But he retired from Renaissance Tech some years ago, and Mercer runs the more successful than ever Renaissance Tech funds now, presumably with Simons blessing.
Where does that leave us? It would be astounding if Renaissance Tech was a vechnicle for Russian laundering and lobbying of US politics. But not impossible. Something about Renaissance Tech doesn't quite add up. Why are others not poaching the brains and replicating it? How are they so far and above the most successful venture capital firms out there, consistently delivering massive gains? 'Its science' just seems too cute and easy. If it were so easy others would be doing it too.
On balance, my guess is Renaissance Tech is probably legit. It's unique methods for predicting markets and placing high speed trades have probably been at the forefront of fiance trading and invention. ...at least in the past. Markets have a funny way of catching up. Other people pick up on trends or new methods to make money, and I am not so sure Renaissance Tech could so seamlessly stay ahead of game year in and year out. With Simon's out the way, could Mercer have invented a new way to keep profits soaring, involving Russian money? Anything is possible. Simons worked for the US government before being sacked, and who knows, maybe he is even in on something. The likelihood of this being true is not high. There is scant (if any) evidence for it. But what a story it would be if it turned out to be true. There are certainly some mysteries to Renaissance Tech, and when things appear too good to be true, they sometimes are.
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