Swiss are trying to curtail free movement and have been told in no uncertain terms noI haven't seen much evidence of the EEA countries wanting to exit it. Have I missed something?
Swiss are trying to curtail free movement and have been told in no uncertain terms noI haven't seen much evidence of the EEA countries wanting to exit it. Have I missed something?
There have been noises from Germany (the only country that really matters) and now from the likes of Lord Kerr that there is a deal to be done on freedom of movement and it will likely involve us doing our part for security along with a membership fee similar to our current net contribution.EFTA has the same freedom of movement as EU - the leave campaign was focused on restricting freedom of movement, if we have to listen to "the will of the people" surely this is the line in the sand? Either that or we can ignore the will of the people and just not enact article 50.
"Free movement of persons is one of the core freedoms of the European Internal Market. This area is covered by Article 28 of the EEA Agreement, Annex V on the Free Movement of Workers and Annex VIII on the Right of Establishment. Accordingly, nationals of the EEA EFTA States (Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) have the same right as EU citizens to take up an economic activity anywhere in the EU/EEA without being discriminated against on the grounds of their nationality. Equally, EU citizens have the right to work and reside in the EEA EFTA States. Non-economically active persons such as pensioners, students and family members of EEA nationals are also entitled to move and reside anywhere in the EU/EEA subject to certain conditions as set out in the relevant EU legislation"
This (and similar pronouncements from Merkel) is what kicked it all off:OK I have been proved wrong a lot over the past few elections but everything I am reading, including coming out of Germany, is that freedom of movement is a key pillar and they are getting more entrenched in that opinion due to the bell ends Johnson & Davis doing their global comedy routine.
Swiss are trying to curtail free movement and have been told in no uncertain terms no
When it comes to immigration we have a strong hand as we have a massive "fudge you guys, I'm going home" button. Both Germany and France are very, very scared of the possibility of a few million EU citizens turning up in Calais at once.
You are looking at least ten years after exiting for something like that. I think that first a strong business case for a move like that needs to be made, without it, the case for as close to status quo as we can get is overwhelming.
If they're here they have jobs and are a net benefit to the country.Please can you run that by me again. Are you saying that the largely economically active EU citizens living in the UK returning to the content is less attractive than our largely economically inactive pensioners who have retired overseas returning here?
If they're here they have jobs and are a net benefit to the country.
If a few million turn up in Calais at once without jobs (not that we'd want that either, but we have to have a nuclear option) then they're going to massively damage the EU economy. For a few years at least.
Just go to WTO and have both sides pay the tariffs. Other than agriculture at 18%, they generally aren't that high - 3-4%
That will also enable us to stop us having to charge/pay tariffs to the rest of the world, so will balance out fairly quickly
Us actually doing it is incredibly unlikely, just like the EU removing our access to the market is.That seems a pretty unlikely scenario to me and not one that I would expect to play a major part in negotiations. I would expect protecting the rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK to be one of the first things to be agreed in A50 negotiations. It is hard to see much progress being made until this has been settled.
Unless someone like Le Pen wins France, I just don't see why EU do these deals. They have stated that free access will involve free movement at every opportunity. The CETA deal has no real access for Financial Services, which is what we need.
I keep coming back to the conclusion that for the EU there is no long term benefit fro giving us privileged access, so either Freedom of movement or the same as all others not in the EU.
This (and similar pronouncements from Merkel) is what kicked it all off:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...m-movement-comments-theresa-may-a7418981.html
So we'd have to have free movement of people who were full EU citizens, but we could put a delay on new entrants and restrictions on benefits is the general idea being pushed about.
When it comes to immigration we have a strong hand as we have a massive "fudge you guys, I'm going home" button. Both Germany and France are very, very scared of the possibility of a few million EU citizens turning up in Calais at once.
It's not the amount of people but who is working their, do you see this government throwing the city under the bus, all their mates and family will be out of workFinancial services only make up 8% of our economy and 2.5% of our workforce. They have just been moaning the loudest/have too many politicians in their pockets. Throw them under the bus if it works for the other 92% of the economy.
That seems a pretty unlikely scenario to me and not one that I would expect to play a major part in negotiations. I would expect protecting the rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK to be one of the first things to be agreed in A50 negotiations. It is hard to see much progress being made until this has been settled.
IMO in all negotiations the Finance sector will be the key driver, this is why I think we are in a weak negotiating position.