Yep I purposely used "my experience" rather than speaking in absolutes.
-
Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara
Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)
- Thread starter SpurMeUp
- Start date
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
I wonder how many (if any, but potentially from all sides) are planning on pushing it right to the wire, i.e. a potentially 4th vote? If a 3rd vote happens and fails, there would then be the EU summit between it and a 4th vote. Johnson himself has suggested that another vote is pointless without further negotiation with the EU, which even if there were to be any, won't happen before the summit. I wonder therefore if some are witholding support with this in mind?
Last edited:
May did say that if her deal didn't pass this week, she would go and ask the EU for a "long extension."
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
And even then the EU dont have to grant it. They have already said any request needs to be accompanied by a plan. And Im not sure "so we can go and do what we should have done these last two years..." counts.
You might get a 2nd referendum, but I'm not sure it will ask the question you want it to ask. I'm thinking that if Parliament has rejected "no-deal" then the referendum question (should we actually get there) would be between a deal that Parliament has ratified and remain -- which is what the Kyle-Wilson amendment calls for and that is (probably) going to have the support of Labour.
We could see a vote of confidence called in the government at that point and possibly another GE (which would be grounds for a long extension). Now there have been some noises from the ERG that some of them might be prepared to vote with Labour in a confidence motion against the government (I am guessing that a big delay to Brexit would be too much of a betrayal for some of them -- which is a kind of circular argument, I grant you).
We might finally be getting to the end of the beginning
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
But that surely isn't a desired outcome for her. Sounds like a fairly weak attempt to paint a 3rd vote as a final chance, but then where did all the talk of a 4th vote come from...? I'd have thought a 3rd vote, with the gap closed further might then set up one final stab at getting some additional concessions from the EU at the summit, but that's pure speculation on my part of course.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
The first one was terribly worded so I wouldnt be surprised.
Point being, we have a negotiated deal with the EU. And we have the option to revoke. And the option to leave anyway with WTO terms. There is already plenty to choose from.
Parliament couldnt agree on the time of day, if there is a deal they do agree on itll be the softest most vanilla of brexit possible. Not really a choice at all, remain, or leave in name only...
Now THAT would be a betrayal, IMHO.
Thats really the difference - referendum now is actually a choice, later isnt. But, Corbyn and co will be hoping that by then they will have power which is really the priority for them. I wonder how his great reforms would work when the EU wont allow them and we have no voice in the club...
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
And I think I heard Farage say he's going to try and drum up a veto from within the EU...!
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
I agree with you on this, but I also agree with dza that any referendum were it to occur, will likely take this form. Which is why I strongly oppose it.
I think that if there is a 2nd referendum, this will likely be the choice. The EU on one side don't want WTO/no-deal/whatever label we want to give it. And our Parliament don't want it.
I think the only way that would change is if there is another General Election and the Tories have a leader who campaigns on a WTO Brexit, or makes an election promise of a 2nd referendum where WTO will be an option on the ballot.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
We could see a vote of confidence called in the government at that point and possibly another GE (which would be grounds for a long extension). Now there have been some noises from the ERG that some of them might be prepared to vote with Labour in a confidence motion against the government (I am guessing that a big delay to Brexit would be too much of a betrayal for some of them -- which is a kind of circular argument, I grant you).
We might finally be getting to the end of the beginning
A long extension that we want because we couldnt organise a tinkle up in a brewery, Im no EU fan but they would be entirely justified in telling us to fudge off. Particularly as the expectation is that we will end up right where we are now anyway, minority government propped up by nutters and not enough clout to get anything through without the opposition being on board (which they wont).
More likely of course is they will just leverage it against us and put the screws on us as they have all the way through.
Its not the end of the beginning. Its a continuation of the beginning with no sign of actually getting anywhere. The car is revving like mad and making a load of noise but the bloody thing isnt in gear...
Tell me where Im wrong:
- Vote of no confidence
- General election
- Labour win with a minority
- Labour get in bed with SNP just as the Tories have DUP (with now the whole Scottish independence thing being back on the agenda - lots of fun in the not too distant...)
- Corbyn tried to negotiate a customs union whereby we get to have a say in EU trade policy and gets laughed out of town
- Ends up with a bastard awful deal, almost certainly BINO and also almost certainly compromising on FoM.
- This, unsurprisingly, isnt a popular option and where are we?
- Right back where we are now!
- EU now at the end of their tether asking what the actual fudge are we doing
- UK population sharing the sentiment
Utterly pointless
They wont. Despite popular belief they really do need us/our business.
I think you are probably right. But (from what I've just been reading anyway) she said that if her deal doesn't pass this week, she will seek a long extension from the EU and get Parliament to vote on that extension next week.
Just when you thought she had run out of road to kick the can...
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
She has also already said she wont be party leader for the next election hasnt she? Im wondering if she will do a Cameron and step down so someone else can pick up the pieces...
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
...If (or while) the deal remains the same
StephenH
David Ginola
Theresa is taking it (the can) back to Brussels I have been told! Funny I was told yesterday and did not believe him!
Last edited:
Ok, here's my stab at suggesting where you might be wrong (disclaimer, I have no phucking idea what I'm talking about, but I will take a guess):
No confidence vote, GE, Lab minority win -- I'm good with that so far (shock, I know)
Labour have agreement with SNP as Tories do with DUP -- I would differ here, slightly. Policy wise, there's nothing the SNP could/would/should really object to, there's lots of overlap between the SNP and Labour on general policies. They obviously want a 2nd referendum for independence, but they will only call one if there is appetite i.e if they think they can win. And the only way I see that happening is if Labour were to refuse a 2nd referendum/enable a hard brexit. Which doesn't seem to be on the agenda for Labour. And this bleeds into your next point
Corbyn tries to negotiate Labour deal, fails, we end up with Norway+ (he has been talking to the Norway+ MPs a lot recently about this): I think you are probably right, we'd end up in this position. It's likely that Labour would put the choice of this deal or remain back to the public. SNP are good with that, there is no reason for 2nd independence vote for them now either.
And from there we see what happens under a Labour government. If policies are good and work for "Labour leavers" in the heartlands, then they forgive over the EU. If things go to sh1t, Labour get buried at the next GE.
I actually have to go and do something useful for a minute, so if/when you reply I will have to respond later!
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I think it's very obvious that will happen after the local elections in May. The two prime candidates (Javid and Hunt) have been on massive manoeuvres over the past couple of weeks because they know it is coming.
The whole Begum citizenship revocation thing was Javid playing to Tory party members, while Hunt has been making no deal isn't so bad noises and comparing the EU to the USSR for the same reason.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
It should only be a technicality. The precedent is that they only need to change a word or comma in the bill. Otherwise Bercow has completely destroyed any claim of impartiality.