Exports to the EU are far from the only thing being part of it gives you. You are the third largest destination for inward investment in the world, with a large part of that coming because of your easy access to the single market. And the most conservative estimates put the drop in FDI that will follow Brexit at 20-25%, which will have a corresponding effect on declines in average real income of between roughly 2% and 4% - or 2,200 pounds per household in terms of a loss in GDP.
That's completely excluding trade, by the way - in fact, with the increased trade costs factored in, you're likely looking at a drop in GDP of 4,000 pounds per household.
They also negotiate access to other markets for you - and get you better terms than what you would have gotten on your own. Again, using Canada as an example, we gave the EU (and thus the UK) reciprocal, greater tariff-free access to areas of our economy that have been protected from even the Americans (and have stayed protected even through the renegotiated USMCA). Advanced manufacturing (electric equipment, medical devices, rail products, scientific and precision instruments) chemicals, dairy, agriculture..you name it, we cut tariffs on it.
Because the EU's internal market was large enough for us to ensure that our companies could access their market and offset domestic losses from increased competition. The UK also benefited from that, with your own manufacturing industry (of which you are a part, I'm guessing). Those terms will be null and void when you're out, and you'll have to trade against high tariffs again until you make new deals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-outs_in_the_European_Union#Schengen_Agreement_–_Ireland_and_the_United_Kingdom
Here are your vetoes on things far more important than either, from Schengen to the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice, and the Charter of Fundamental Rights. You even opted out of the Social Chapter of the Maastricht Treaty before Blair pulled you back in.
Britain had a uniquely untethered place in the EU, and a raft of powers and discretions not available to anyone else. As for Ireland, I'm not sure what you mean. They had a referendum on joining the Lisbon treaty in 2008. Ireland voted against. The government went to the EU, renegotiated the treaty, including about twenty exemptions that nullified large sections of the treaty, and got it approved second time in another referendum.
What did the EU do there that was so shabby?
If you'll want equivalent access to CETA for some of your best sectors (including advanced manufacturing), you won't get it, because your market isn't big enough for us to think it's worth the risk. You'll be trading at a disadvantage, as your unilateral abolishment of tariffs on almost every industry post-Brexit allows Canadian firms free access to the UK, while trading on WTO rules means Canada gets to set tariffs of up to 14% on a huge variety of sectors and privilege our own companies in any transactions involving your companies and ours. That's before our non-tariff regulations, which you won't be able to fit if it disadvantages or even levels the playing field for our products when compared to yours.
And that's just us in Canada - I freely admit, we're not the most powerful or influential place. But we will still adopt that approach, because it benefits us. The US, China, India et al? They'll bend the UK over, mate.
Even with Most Favoured Nation status - there's a reason basing the majority of your trade on WTO rules is avoided by every major nation, and rightfully so.
As for changing your regulations every five years, that defeats the purpose of a trad deal. Trade deals don't work if they have to be renewed every five years. The business cycle needs stability, and there is a reason trade deals (like NAFTA, for instance) tend to last a long time - decades. And if you do a trade deal, you can't change them with your government every five years, or there's no point to one.
True, it was your natural state - as was creating disunity on the continent to suit your strategic needs. But the thing is, strategic needs change based on your position relative to your rivals. And the UK's position relative to the United States, China et al means that your best shot now is working with Europe to form a coherent power bloc - not going your own way and becoming a minnow in a world of sparring hegemons.
You were always the country that was able to create that, and you were never subservient to anyone. You enjoyed the biggest voice in the EU, behind Germany - you could opt out of the majority of things they tried to do, and you frustrated their ambitions for closer union for many years without an issue.
My fear, and my sadness for you, is that your low-tax, low-regulation dream will kill your domestic industries and reduce you to a subservient lapdog of Washington or Beijing instead. Your internal market can't sustain large industries anymore, and that puts your companies at a strategic disadvantage to the US (with a large, wealthy internal market), China (likewise), India (likewise, albeit a poorer market) and anyone with tariff-free access to the market right next door to you (which is the *wealthiest* internal market on the planet). To get around that, companies secure equal access to these markets - which your companies can't do, since none of these countries have incentives to give you preferential access given that Britain does not have as much to offer as it did when it was last an independent power.The world has moved on.
I'm not trying to talk down Britain here - as I said, I deeply love so many things to do with the UK, and I have family over there, friends over there, ties over there. But these are geostrategic facts - no amount of wishing for low-tax, low-regulation competition will wish away these realities. That's why I think you're setting fire to your own place in the world - Britain will not benefit from this, in any way, shape or form. The world is a realist place, and Britain cannot go it alone.
