Modern Warfare was outstanding, so far as games go it tried to keep to reality, it had a good story line and some excellent game play moments. The flash back sniper level(s) were simply amazing, and among the best gaming experiences ever.
They were really onto something there.
Since MW, they have gotten everything completely wrong. I think MW was a fluke.
Here's a brief history lesson for you newbs
Remember Medal of Honor: Allied Assault?
Those same lead developers left that studio and founded a new one (Infinity Ward), where they started the Call of Duty franchise. After they released MW, they really blew up. Of course, Treyarch is the other developer that was in charge of the in-between sequels and other flimflams that normally sucked. The only thing Treyarch introduced was Nazi Zombies, and even then, it's not like it was a new concept.
Activision being the stupid dingdongwads that they are fired the two leads who then went on to create yet another studio (Respawn). Activision only cares about money. Their CEO Bobby Kotick is a prick who doesn't know anything about games, just making money. Just look at the Guitar Hero/Rock Band formula... loads of different titles, tons of DLC. All just to make those $$$ rain. It's not like EA is much better though with BF3's new map packs (dubbed expansions because they promised they would never charge for maps).
The thing I don't understand is why do people keep buying these bricky games over and over? It's the same brick, just different settings. The multiplayer isn't very deep and keeps my attention for maybe 10 hours tops since I played the brick out of the original MW. If I had a kid who shat in the corner of his room and I gave him a candybar right after he did that, I'd be reinforcing his behavior. That's what paying customers have been doing with these Call of Duty games lately. If stagnant design choices are rewarded, they will continue to lack innovation and go for the same old tired formula.
MW3 did very well in terms of sales, breaking many entertainment industry records and making Avatar look like a straight to DVD release.
So no, I don't think MW was a fluke. MW has shaped the FPS genre as it is today, whether we like it or not. But with new sources of startup funding (like Kickstarter), I think indie studios will be able to create bigger and better games that can compete against the likes of these Call of Cloney games. Let's hope they're past their peak now.