I know you poo poo it as it is a bit modern and technical for you Statlover but it does give a reasonable prediction of how things should end up (especially over a very long term).
If you take a look at last seasons XG table it had the top 4 as:
Emirates Marketing Project
Liverpool
Chelsea
Man Utd
and the bottom 3 as:
Palace
West Brom
Sheffield United
Of course there are always statistical anomalies (teams who get lucky/unlucky or perhaps have an incredibly good keeper or striker) but overall it provides a good indication of whether teams are typically creating good chances in games or having good chances created against them in games.
So far this season we are the 13th best team in terms of (not) giving up high quality chances against us and the 18th best team at creating high quality chances.
Interestingly enough if you look at the bottom 10 for creating high quality chances it is: Norwich, Watford, Burnley, Aston Villa, Brighton, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Southampton. Of course we are only 9 games in so quality of opposition played hasn't evened out yet across the league, but would you agree or disagree that those other teams I mentioned are likely to be the bottom half of teams for chance creation in the PL?
As I said before if we're still down towards the bottom of the XG stats after half a season then we probably should be concerned.