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Harry Kane MBE

harr1984 said:
Kane has always missed plenty of chances, one of his biggest strengths is that he never hides when he does and carries on getting in scoring positions. All strikers miss chances, but he is not as lethal as Lewandowski, that much I’m sure of….
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It's because thanks to the English education system he and Defoe don't properly understand probablity and independent events.

“Defoe told me once ‘if I miss a chance then the odds are now in my favour to score the next one because the chances of missing two in a row are less than missing one’. And that’s what I try and take. If I miss, then the next one is more in my favour to score. It’s about little things like that.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/f...he-image-of-players-representing-England.html
 
Modric THFC said:
It's because thanks to the English education system he and Defoe don't properly understand probablity and independent events.

“Defoe told me once ‘if I miss a chance then the odds are now in my favour to score the next one because the chances of missing two in a row are less than missing one’. And that’s what I try and take. If I miss, then the next one is more in my favour to score. It’s about little things like that.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/f...he-image-of-players-representing-England.html
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Isn't that the gamblers fallacy? Good psycological view and keeps confidence up but no basis in reality.
 
He is off the pace and as many have written a couple of weeks behind in preparation, but he did manager to score an incredible goal, the like we'll not see for many years, a header from a Sterling cross! Thought I couldnt make out whether the pass was deflected or just hit in to the ground.
 
K.D.D.D.D.Soc said:
He is off the pace and as many have written a couple of weeks behind in preparation, but he did manager to score an incredible goal, the like we'll not see for many years, a header from a Sterling cross! Thought I couldnt make out whether the pass was deflected or just hit in to the ground.
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3 starts, 3 goals aint bad.
 
Lilbaz said:
Doesn't mean he scores every time he shoots. Just he scores more than the average (xg is based on an average player).
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harr1984 said:
I’m not one who places any emphasis on xG, from what I can see it’s not that informative.

But regardless, what are you saying he doesn’t do? Miss lots of chances? He definitely does, I’ve seen him miss plenty of sitters…..
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Every player misses chances including Messi and Ronaldo. Ronaldo missed a penalty on Wednesday night, doesn't mean he's not lethal.

Xg shows the amount of goals that would be expected to be scored from the shots taken based on tens of thousands of shots in the top leagues.
It's the best guide available to show if someone is "lethal" or not, at least better than someone saying he is or isn't without anything to back it up.
The fact that Kane out performs his xG shows that he is one of the best finishers.
 
DubSpur said:
Every player misses chances including Messi and Ronaldo. Ronaldo missed a penalty on Wednesday night, doesn't mean he's not lethal.

Xg shows the amount of goals that would be expected to be scored from the shots taken based on tens of thousands of shots in the top leagues.
It's the best guide available to show if someone is "lethal" or not, at least better than someone saying he is or isn't without anything to back it up.
The fact that Kane out performs his xG shows that he is one of the best finishers.
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Absolutely I agree, I did say in original post that all strikers miss chances. All I said was that he misses plenty of chances in a lot of games, so yesterday was no different in that respect. Kane scores many great goals which improves his xG greatly, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t miss a lot of easier chances. And whilst admittedly not having watched as many Bayern games as Spurs ones, I stand by my opinion that Kane isn’t as lethal as Lewandowski. That’s not a criticism as Kane is a top goalscorer but if I had to back one of the two to score a good goal scoring opportunity id put Lewandowski ahead of Kane….
 
harr1984 said:
Absolutely I agree, I did say in original post that all strikers miss chances. All I said was that he misses plenty of chances in a lot of games, so yesterday was no different in that respect. Kane scores many great goals which improves his xG greatly, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t miss a lot of easier chances. And whilst admittedly not having watched as many Bayern games as Spurs ones, I stand by my opinion that Kane isn’t as lethal as Lewandowski. That’s not a criticism as Kane is a top goalscorer but if I had to back one of the two to score a good goal scoring opportunity id put Lewandowski ahead of Kane….
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No shame in being behind Lewa. I don't know if he is or not, so not going to argue either way, but the one thing is that we watch Spurs and are more aware of his misses.
If I'm watching Bayern it's highlights and it would show Lewa's goals and not his misses.
 
I said it before and it wasn't taken well here. There is a possibility that Kane is past his best and it started last season. My guess are those dodgy ankles, the way he plays with the ball stuck at his feet inviting and taking hard knocks. he relies too much on protecting the ball with his feet instead of body positioning or quick feet to dodge and move the ball away from himself. Ironically he challenges very well with his whole body. So my guess is he knows he lacks agility and quick feet.
Raziel said:
Rusty as fudge with the finishing, passing was still working.

Hopefully works the rust out with England, so ready when he comes back for us.
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Sent from my SM-T865 using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
metalgear said:
I said it before and it wasn't taken well here. There is a possibility that Kane is past his best and it started last season. My guess are those dodgy ankles, the way he plays with the ball stuck at his feet inviting and taking hard knocks. he relies too much on protecting the ball with his feet instead of body positioning or quick feet to dodge and move the ball away from himself. Ironically he challenges very well with his whole body. So my guess is he knows he lacks agility and quick feet.

Sent from my SM-T865 using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Top goal scorer and most assists as well. I don't see how his decline started last season, if anything it was his best season so far and he should've won player of the year by a mile.
 
DubSpur said:
Top goal scorer and most assists as well. I don't see how his decline started last season, if anything it was his best season so far and he should've won player of the year by a mile.
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Lost some things, little bit of pace and acceleration I think (just imo). Can't quite run as much at high intensity so can't press like he did, at least not without a risk of injury that isn't acceptable.

Gained other things. Uses his passing, creativity and build up play to greater effect. Still a brilliant finisher.

No decline so far, but a change. A change that makes an immediate decline less likely imo.
 
DubSpur said:
Top goal scorer and most assists as well. I don't see how his decline started last season, if anything it was his best season so far and he should've won player of the year by a mile.
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I don't see it as a decline that started last season, more of a rebirth.

The Kane from the 14/15 season through 17/18 season was a beast, an out and out number 9 who could dominate centre backs and score at will.

I think the following 2 seasons the repeated ankle injuries took their toll and he definately lost a bit of pace and strength on the ball. Though he still scored plenty of goals in the league I always felt that he wasn't quite the same.

Last season either he or Mourinho seemed to realise/accept that he can no longer do what he could 3/4 years and changed his game accordingly. He is now all about dropping off and building the play but of course, the finishing skills remain.
 
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braineclipse said:
Lost some things, little bit of pace and acceleration I think (just imo). Can't quite run as much at high intensity so can't press like he did, at least not without a risk of injury that isn't acceptable.

Gained other things. Uses his passing, creativity and build up play to greater effect. Still a brilliant finisher.

No decline so far, but a change. A change that makes an immediate decline less likely imo.
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Beat me to it!
 
braineclipse said:
Lost some things, little bit of pace and acceleration I think (just imo). Can't quite run as much at high intensity so can't press like he did, at least not without a risk of injury that isn't acceptable.

Gained other things. Uses his passing, creativity and build up play to greater effect. Still a brilliant finisher.

No decline so far, but a change. A change that makes an immediate decline less likely imo.
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Reminds me of the way Teddy Sheringham changed his game as he was approaching 30... And Teddy managed to play at a high level until he was 40! A good omen for Harry.
 
Shearer scored a lot of goals after his ankle (?) injury by adjusting his game. What he lost in pace he made up with elbows movement and positioning. Harry's game is certainly developing in a way which could prolong his career.
 
Lilbaz said:
Isn't that the gamblers fallacy? Good psycological view and keeps confidence up but no basis in reality.
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But it might have some basis in reality. When talking about gambler’s fallacy, it’s about factors that are generally outside of the gambler’s control. For example, if a coin is tossed ten times, and it comes heads with each, people believe that the next toss ‘must’ be heads. Except, it doesn’t work like that. As the probability is always 50/50.

In the case of a striker believing that they are more likely to score the next chance, that ‘may’ increase its likliehood. As their belief that they will score increases and so this aids their striker by allowing it to be more assured. It’s the psychological difference in terms of being in control.

It’s almost easier to look at it from the view point that some players will have their heads go down, and believe that if they miss a couple of chances, they will miss the next one and so scuff the shot as not confident. Belief and control can affect the future outcome.
 
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