Re: Gareth Bale
Ignore Marca. If someone went around this forum and made a newspaper out of the posts, that is what a Spurs version of Marca would look like. Our ITK threads have more accurate information.
Real Madrid probably regret spending the money they spent on Kaka, they probably aren't overjoyed with the money they spent on Modric and Ronaldo says he doesn't want to talk about renewing his contract... He probably will renew his contract, but Madrid will have to pay him crazy money if he does. They're looking at Falcao in the summer, they can't afford to splash out 50 million on him, 70 million on Bale (they wouldn't pay that anyway) and still be able to afford other reinforcements. If they fail to convince Ronaldo to sign a new contract, maybe they'll have to go for Ronaldo lite... But I think he's still got 18-24 months left on his contract. (Which fits as Bale will be here next season unless a 90 million bid comes in anyway.) They also have 25 million euros or so put aside to compensate Mourinho when he goes.
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While I'm on this stuff:
Bale has clearly moved into the World Class category now and you would have to say he is up there in the top ten players in the world. it seems he keeps on doing things which are better than what he has done before. I think he does love the club and you get the feeling he likes being close to his family etc. however, it is only a matter of time before he moves on and i think the following clubs are likely destinations
1. Madrid - seems the obvious one. They can afford him and he can team up with Ronaldo and probably replace him.
2. Barcelona - Not sure if they can afford him and they have messi but possible
3. Emirates Marketing Project - think they will bid in the summer (mancini was at the lane last night), they can clearly afford him and his head may be turned by the promise of trophies
4. chelsea - see Emirates Marketing Project
5. Man utd - probably cant afford him but seems like the perfect replacement for giggs
6. PSG - would he want to play in france?
Of course i want him to be a lifer at spurs but can't see it happening and you wouldn't begrudge him for it
1: Real Madrid - I've covered this. They do seem the only likely destination, but in 2 years or so.
2: Barca. They don't have much money. Bale doesn't have the technique to fit into the Barca style (maybe under Tito this won't be as important, but Barca tend to go for people that have an insane technical level). Bale would need Modric's first touch, ball control, short passing, close control, etc... He's not bad technically but if you put him wide and have him come inside with Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta, he is the weak link. Messi coming from deep or Fabregas in the middle and Iniesta coming from wide and you have a diamond that can play one-twos through a team, I don't think Bale has that technical level.... That said if teams pack the midfield and leave wingers free (as opposition teams always do) Bale would be a nightmare to deal with... He'd probably outscore Ronaldo. That said, Barca's negotiations with Arsenal getting Henry for hardly anything, Fabregas for not that much, etc... Levy would give their directors a heart attack. It'd be the most insane game of higher or lower... They'd offer 10-15m for Bale, Levy would start at 100 mil and neither side would probably move more than 20 mil. I'm really not sure they can afford him though. They're getting Neymar in 18 months too, so they've got to have money set aside for that, even if to pay his wages. Also, Bale has fudged his own chances up a bit... He loved Real Madrid, he says Ronaldo is better than Messi, etc... Seriously, if he wants to go to Barca he needs to stop saying stuff like that. He is making all the right noises for Real Madrid though. But honestly isn't politically the best policy for keeping your options open.
3: Emirates Marketing Project are screwed when it comes to FFP. They're starting to try to "be seen to be going in the right direction" even if that means reducing losses from spleen shattering to merely eye watering. They will probably have to spend in the summer, but Mancini doesn't use wingers (Johnson and Sinclair didn't suit Mancini's system and even at Inter he didn't use them)... Mancini might be gone in the summer, I think he probably will. But until we know who will manage them, it's hard to say what will happen. They can't throw 50 million at a bunch of players and pay them all 250k a week anyway, regardless of who they get to manage them. If they want Bale as a left back, I don't think he'll move. It's not worth it. It's one thing being a Barca left back but not at City. He isn't a striker. But they might consider him as a replacement for Balotelli but playing behind the striker... Teams do tend to defend narrowly against City, so he'd be able to do well for City, it just doesn't seem like a move that'll help his development... Plus City wouldn't have to let him go if Madrid offered 100 million for him, City are a club that can keep players out of spite and have them train alone and not even make the bench. So many players disappear after moving to City that it doesn't seem like a club that take players to a new level. (Also remember the Levy +10-25% for PL rivals tax.)
4: Chelsea. No. They'll probably spend out of rage in the summer, but they're actually ok for FFP... So if they don't go absolutely mental in the summer, they shouldn't risk messing their future FFP qualification up badly. They'll have to spend money on a manager again probably.... At the rate they're going, the money for recruiting/firing managers won't be allowed under "exceptional costs", so they do need to treat the next couple of years a bit cautiously until they know if FFP has teeth, they don't want to be the ones to find out firsthand. Assuming Levy charges them more than Manchester clubs or overseas clubs, I'm not sure how much of a risk Chelsea can take. When they spend huge money, they don't see a huge impact. Hazard has been ok, although arguably he hasn't set the league alight... So when Chelsea next splash out on a striker, will they risk throwing 75 mil or so at Bale too? Another problem (the main problem really) is, where will he play? They have Oscar, Hazard and Mata, the offensive stars of their team... They have other players to play in those positions too... They have spent a ton of money on those positions. Chelsea could use improving in a number of positions, but it doesn't seem logical for them to replace a newly bought expensive player like Oscar... Chelsea isn't very logical, but there are a number of positions that need strengthening more. Besides, Levy will do his "one more year and I'll sell you to Real Madrid, your kid will be older then too, this makes sense" thing... Chelsea won't get him. Besides, Chelsea finished 6th in the league last year, they are fighting with us right now... Can he say that going to Chelsea in the summer will mean fighting for the league/CL?
5: Man United - Can't afford him. Could barely afford RVP. They haven't made many big signings lately, RVP was their one big name signing... They might take a while to sign someone well known for a lot of money and they definitely can't afford Bale right now... If anything, they'll be saving to table a bid for Ronaldo if he hasn't signed a new contract at Madrid in a year. He'll probably cost less than Bale if he only has a year on his contract and won't sign a new one. He'll be 29 then too, I think? That said, United seem to have the title comfortably this year, they probably won't feel the need to go crazy with signings. Their midfield needs work though, if you include wingers... They probably need 1 CB unless they can rely on Smalling, Evans and Jones as a CB. (Vidic and Ferdinand are at the "can't play two games in a row" stage.) They need at least 1 CM, unless they do make Jones a full time CB, in which case they'd probably need another CM too. They need to figure out what they're doing with Nani and they need to hope Valencia gets his form back. There are so many question marks about United that even in a best case scenario for them, using Jones as cover for a bunch of positions with Scholes and Giggs still going... I don't think they can take the risk of spending anywhere near the money we'd ask for Bale on one player. But this is all silly anyway, they can't afford him.
6 PSG: The French league isn't great. PSG are currently trying to get Ronaldo, if he does renew his contract they might feel Ronaldo lite is worth a punt. I haven't seen how they're going for FFP but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a train wreck. I don't see how they can do it. Even if they pay all their players by donating the money to charity and just giving them random things and/or sponsorship deals, they probably wouldn't be able to make the figures dance into something passing for FFP compliance. So, it is possible that PSG are just taking a "to hell with it" approach, but will Bale risk going there if they get thrown out of Europe? Would Bale go there anyway? Are they any closer to winning the CL than Juve? This is possible, but it seems unlikely.
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I'll add my own 7:
Russia: They have the money, but don't have the league or the CL hopes that Bale would require... It seems silly to go to Russia purely for the money, wait a year and go to Real Madrid then Bale would have money and be in a dream team.
Levy may annoy everyone when he doesn't sign players, but if there is one man to trust when it comes to keeping players, it should be him, even if they want to leave, he'll squeeze another year out of them and Bale doesn't want to leave yet. Plus, screw it, he is our Ronaldo right now. The star of the show. He may as well enjoy that for a year before moving to be a star in a team of superstars overshadowed by Ronaldo and not taking free kicks 99% of the time. Also, he might want to see how Real's new manager does next year before joining. It's hard to follow Mourinho.
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TLDR: The most likely scenario is Bale stays for 2 years or so, then goes to Real Madrid.