Eastleigh

[Crawley]

If UKIP come second, or even first, does this change peoples perception of the party, or will they retain their bias?

 

[Richie]

For someone anti-EU to vote UKIP is pretty much the worst thing they can do. In Eastleigh for example, they've split the Euroskeptic vote and the most Europhile party has won an election. In a first past the post system, a vote for UKIP is a vote for Lib Dem/Labour.

 

[Notmegov]

Nothing more than a protest vote.

 

[Gordinho]

Anybody remember the Greens in the late 80s? UKIP are today's Green Party, temporarily fashionable.

 

[edgey-the-yid]

Anybody remember the Greens in the late 80s? UKIP are today's Green Party, temporarily fashionable.

Mainly down to the 3 mainstream parties all being pro-EU when the majority of the public (if pols are to be believed) are anti-EU... So with UKIP being the only party making any sensible noise on the issue it's gonna be a popular choice.
I do fear tho that as said above it is just a vote for Labour...

 

[Crawley]

Fashionable or not, I think the mainstream parties are being very disrespectful to, and dismissive of, those who voted UKIP.

I believe those dismissing now are in for a big shock. People ARE fed up with the main three (or are they now just one?)

 

[BushHillSpurs]

Mike Thornton, Liberal Democrats - 13,342
Diane James, Ukip - 11,571
Maria Hutchings, Conservative party - 10,559
John O'Farrell, Labour party- 4,088
Danny Stupple, Independent - 768
Iain McClenann, National Health Action - 392
Ray Hall, Beer, Baccy and Crumpet party - 235
Kevin Milburn, Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" - 163
Howling "Laud" Hope, Monster Raving Loony William Hill party - 136
Jim Duggan, Peace party - 128
David Bishop, Elvis Loves Pets party - 72
Michael Walters, English Democrats "Putting England First!" - 70
Daz Proctor, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts - 62
Colin Bex, Wessex Regionalists - 30

There were 90 spoilt ballots.

Lib Dem majority 1,771 (4.26%)
19.34% swing Liberal Democrat to Ukip since 2010
Electorate 79,004; Turnout 41,616 (52.68%, down 16.61% on 2010)

--------------------------------------------

Even with the promise of a referendum the people still voted for UKIP in their droves..
Its an embarassment for the conservatives. Hopefully this is the emergence now of UKIP to be serious challengers.

I dont understand why David Cameron would advocate; gay marriage, Foreign Aid, Green energy, etc so much when he knows his core voters are pretty much against all three.

Its like Labour pledging to cut welfare, immigration, and the trade unions!!

 

[a spur from swansea]

Mike Thornton, Liberal Democrats - 13,342
Diane James, Ukip - 11,571
Maria Hutchings, Conservative party - 10,559
John O'Farrell, Labour party- 4,088
Danny Stupple, Independent - 768
Iain McClenann, National Health Action - 392
Ray Hall, Beer, Baccy and Crumpet party - 235
Kevin Milburn, Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" - 163
Howling "Laud" Hope, Monster Raving Loony William Hill party - 136
Jim Duggan, Peace party - 128David Bishop, Elvis Loves Pets party - 72
Michael Walters, English Democrats "Putting England First!" - 70
Daz Proctor, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts - 62
Colin Bex, Wessex Regionalists - 30

There were 90 spoilt ballots.

Lib Dem majority 1,771 (4.26%)
19.34% swing Liberal Democrat to Ukip since 2010
Electorate 79,004; Turnout 41,616 (52.68%, down 16.61% on 2010)

--------------------------------------------

Even with the promise of a referendum the people still voted for UKIP in their droves..
Its an embarassment for the conservatives. Hopefully this is the emergence now of UKIP to be serious challengers.

I dont understand why David Cameron would advocate; gay marriage, Foreign Aid, Green energy, etc so much when he knows his core voters are pretty much against all three.

Its like Labour pledging to cut welfare, immigration, and the trade unions!!

is that the jim duggan of TopSpurs.com:?:

 

[scaramanga]

Not sure I'm going to pay much attention to the voting patterns of a load of inbreds.

 

[Gifter]

Anybody remember the Greens in the late 80s? UKIP are today's Green Party, temporarily fashionable.

Gord, you were fantastic in Apocalypse Now.

"I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream. It's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor … and surviving."

 

[Gordinho]

Gord, you were fantastic in Apocalypse Now.

"I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream. It's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor … and surviving."

That reference has gone completely over my head but I sense that I've just had the tinkle ripped.

 

[jts1882]

Who takes any serious notice of byelections? The governing party always does badly and many have got reelectioned following embarrassing byelection defeats.

You could draw any of the follow conclusions from the Eastleigh result:

• Lib-dems holding seat shows they are not weakened by being in coalition.
• Third place for Tories means embarrassment for Cameron..
• Fourth place for Labour signals end for Milliband
• Second place for UKIP makes them real force in UK politics
• End of two party dominance as both Labour and Conservatives humiliated

I suspect all would be wrong.

 

[monkeybarry]

i like the fact UKIP are getting a growing votership (well, by their own rhetoric and two bi-elections they are) as the UK needs a bit of a political shake up.

but as far as taking them seriously goes - let's wait until they actually win a seat shall we.
personally i don't think they will as when it comes to the crunch they don't have anything other than "it's the EU's fault" as a policy - whatever the subject matter may be.

anyone remember the referendum party?!?

 

[edgey-the-yid]

i like the fact UKIP are getting a growing votership (well, by their own rhetoric and two bi-elections they are) as the UK needs a bit of a political shake up.

but as far as taking them seriously goes - let's wait until they actually win a seat shall we.
personally i don't think they will as when it comes to the crunch they don't have anything other than "it's the EU's fault" as a policy - whatever the subject matter may be.

anyone remember the referendum party?!?

Saying that tho its quite easy to link many of the countries problems to the EU and open door immigration/freedom of movement policy.
Crime rates, overcrowded prisons, soft sentencing, strain on NHS, strain on schools, unemployement numbers, lack of social housing, benefit bill, EU human rights, etc, etc.

The only benefit of EU membership seems to be the trade agreement... Which other European countries have got without the EU membership so why cant we?

For over 50mil a day we just seem to be getting mugged off

 

[Richie]

I don't really see what UKIP can be running on since Cameron has promise a referendum. Other than claiming Cameron won't follow through, what can they do? When a single issue party has that issue taken away, what's left?

Incidentally, I would probably be more inclined to vote for UKIP if they didn't bring up Europe in every single debate. Honestly, Farage or that bald guy can be debating any topic and they will bring the EU in to it. I probably identify closer with their domestic Libertarian policies than those of the Conservatives. Europe is probably one of the UKIP policy areas where I differ most from them.

 

[Richie]

Saying that tho its quite easy to link many of the countries problems to the EU and open door immigration/freedom of movement policy.
Crime rates, overcrowded prisons, soft sentencing, strain on NHS, strain on schools, unemployement numbers, lack of social housing, benefit bill, EU human rights, etc, etc.

The only benefit of EU membership seems to be the trade agreement... Which other European countries have got without the EU membership so why cant we?

For over 50mil a day we just seem to be getting mugged off

There is a difference between having trade and having free trade agreements. Europe trades with the US, but there is no free trade agreement in law. If Britain decides to slap a tariff on US exports or vice versa, they can.

An example is Norway, where the French slapped an import tariff on Norwegian Salmon (I think) and in retaliation Norway put a big tariff on French cheese. The fact is that without the EU, European trade comes down to the whims of governments. If we leave and it becomes politically convenient to make British goods uncompetitive in Europe, they can. If we stay in, they can't.

We may not get back more than we pay in directly (especially since Blair gave away part of the rebate for quite literally nothing) but the benefit to the economy for British businesses makes up for it. Remember trade is not a zero sum game, free trade makes everybody better off.

 

[Gifter]

That reference has gone completely over my head but I sense that I've just had the tinkle ripped.

Dude, I'm just ribbing you that the pic in your profile looks a little like Marlon Brando, kind of a tinkle take, but at your age one I'd be happy with!

 

[Armenia Spur]

Best thing about this by election is some of the party names!

 

[richie_spur]

It may be indicative of the voting public when the 'Beer, Baccy and Crumpet' party polls in the top half of all those standing...

 

[P.D.]

There is a difference between having trade and having free trade agreements. Europe trades with the US, but there is no free trade agreement in law. If Britain decides to slap a tariff on US exports or vice versa, they can.

An example is Norway, where the French slapped an import tariff on Norwegian Salmon (I think) and in retaliation Norway put a big tariff on French cheese. The fact is that without the EU, European trade comes down to the whims of governments. If we leave and it becomes politically convenient to make British goods uncompetitive in Europe, they can. If we stay in, they can't.

We may not get back more than we pay in directly (especially since Blair gave away part of the rebate for quite literally nothing) but the benefit to the economy for British businesses makes up for it. Remember trade is not a zero sum game, free trade makes everybody better off.

I'm fairly sure the EU would be more than happy to have a free trade agreement with the UK. We are massive consumers and have a trade deficit. One of the countries that buys the highest no of cars in the world etc.