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Covid outbreak at Spurs

alekaras said:
To base your claim that it has become endemic based on one data point is scientific folly. I will call it endemic when the number of Covid deaths and flu deaths when everyone is unvaccinated is more or less equivalent. That is at around 0.02% (or 0.15%, if you also include pneumonia) annually. We're nowhere close to that now with Covid among the unvaccinated.

Stats from CDC (not the Daily Mail).
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm
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What sort of logic is that? A cold is endemic but doesn't have the same ifr as flu.

Ok turns out i was wrong.
The cdc estimates the ifr for delta in those with immunity to be 0.04%. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-delta-variant-severity.html
The bmj has flus ifr as 0.039%. https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3410/rr-6

Everyone in the uk has been exposed. These are the anti body testing from the ons. Due to the fact that antibodies wane over time it will never get to 100%, but has been around 95% since august.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
 
Lilbaz said:
What sort of logic is that? A cold is endemic but doesn't have the same ifr as flu.

Ok turns out i was wrong.
The cdc estimates the ifr for delta in those with immunity to be 0.04%. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-delta-variant-severity.html
The bmj has flus ifr as 0.039%. https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3410/rr-6

Everyone in the uk has been exposed. These are the anti body testing from the ons. Due to the fact that antibodies wane over time it will never get to 100%, but has been around 95% since august.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
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One thing that the data fails to mention is what percentage of the 0.039 had been administered a flu shot. So you're essentially comparing apples to oranges. You're comparing the IFR of a hybrid population (vaxxed and unvaxxed) for the flu, to just the vaxxed/infected population for Covid.

But let's do a little math here. This is not scientific (we need much more data), but meant to illustrate a point:

According to the links you sent me, the Covid IFR for unvaxxed is 0.96. So if we assume 1/5 of the population is unvaxxed and assuming they contract Covid at the same rate (and not higher) than vaxxed people, you'd still be looking at a 0.2 IFR. Which is 5 times that of the flu.

So no, they are not comparable. And as far as exposure is concerned, just as with the flu there will be new variants that will continue to cause infections. If their IFR doesn't drop, then we are nowhere near to this being endemic. Unless we are willing to accept an endemic disease that is 5 times deadlier than the flu. That's an option too, I guess.
 
harr1984 said:
Not aimed at anyone here, but I am amazed at the amount of people in this country who have all of a sudden become self diagnosed virus experts over the past year and a half after reading a few online articles and stats….
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Well, it depends on what aspect of the virus they're talking about. You don't need to be a virologist to know that Sars-Cov-2 is easily transmissible through the air and that not wearing a mask substantially increases your risk of getting infected. Just as you don't need to be an engineer to know that not wearing a seat belt will increase the likelihood of injury in a car crash. But yeah, for anyone who claims to know how the genetic makeup of the virus affects a variety of human cells based on a few online articles, I agree.
 
alekaras said:
One thing that the data fails to mention is what percentage of the 0.039 had been administered a flu shot. So you're essentially comparing apples to oranges. You're comparing the IFR of a hybrid population (vaxxed and unvaxxed) for the flu, to just the vaxxed/infected population for Covid.

But let's do a little math here. This is not scientific (we need much more data), but meant to illustrate a point:

According to the links you sent me, the Covid IFR for unvaxxed is 0.96. So if we assume 1/5 of the population is unvaxxed and assuming they contract Covid at the same rate (and not higher) than vaxxed people, you'd still be looking at a 0.2 IFR. Which is 5 times that of the flu.

So no, they are not comparable. And as far as exposure is concerned, just as with the flu there will be new variants that will continue to cause infections. If their IFR doesn't drop, then we are nowhere near to this being endemic. Unless we are willing to accept an endemic disease that is 5 times deadlier than the flu. That's an option too, I guess.
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Everyone has been vaxxed or has had the virus in the uk. Everyone has some immunity. It was why i originally said flu now is more lethal. Seems i was wrong by 0.01%. You don't need to do any guesswork or maths. The ons antibody test results show it.

Wrong thread for it though. This is about spurs. There is a coronavirus thread.
 
Lilbaz said:
Everyone has been vaxxed or has had the virus in the uk. Everyone has some immunity. It was why i originally said flu now is more lethal. Seems i was wrong by 0.01%. You don't need to do any guesswork or maths. The ons antibody test results show it.

Wrong thread for it though. This is about spurs. There is a coronavirus thread.
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You're assuming that vaccines will continue to be effective and that people who were infected will have the same immune response to new variants. Both these assumptions are flawed. And I'll leave it at that.
 
One upside of this is that some players who were looking tired, esp Kane will have had something approaching a mid-season break to re-charge their batteries

Just need to hope that none of our covid group have lingering effects
 
Lilbaz said:
I'm not equating them. But there will be footballers that do. The vaccines can cause myocarditis (inflamation of the heart muscle) that can last for 2 and a half months after so it is possible. Covid itself also causes problems with the heart.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ination-guidance-for-healthcare-professionals
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Fabrice Muamba, Justin Edinburgh, Ugo Ehiogu, Antonio Puerta, Marc Vivien-Foe, Christian Eriksen…these are other footballers who have collapsed suddenly too, 4 of them dying. You can’t speculate that a COVID19 vaccine is the cause without evidence, regardless of a potential side effect.
 
tommysvr said:
Fabrice Muamba, Justin Edinburgh, Ugo Ehiogu, Antonio Puerta, Marc Vivien-Foe, Christian Eriksen…these are other footballers who have collapsed suddenly too, 4 of them dying. You can’t speculate that a COVID19 vaccine is the cause without evidence, regardless of a potential side effect.
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How do you get evidence? You investigate.

Otherwise you could say that you couldn't speculate a link between az vaccine and blood clots on the brain that led to deaths. We now have evidence. Now we know that asperating while giving the injection can avoid that.

As i said before we know covid causes problems with the heart. It's more likely, or it is just one of those things.

Is it possible? yes. That doesn't mean i am anti vax. Look in the coronavirus thread, i've been very in support of vaccines and supported austria in lockdowns for unvaccinated. But with health you don't chose a side. You find out what the truth is. Yes this would be a concern for footballers when getting vaxxed and other athletes no matter how rare. Don't pretend it wouldn't be.
 
Eriksen hadn't had a vaccine at the time he collapsed.

The Nigerian descent thing is perhaps the interesting correlation to look at.
 
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AdamB said:
One upside of this is that some players who were looking tired, esp Kane will have had something approaching a mid-season break to re-charge their batteries

Just need to hope that none of our covid group have lingering effects
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If they can't train, because of the effects of CoViD, even if they're very mild, it'll set them back a lot. Let's hope that no one had symptoms and didn't miss a beat. In reality, however, a few may be impacted. And given the high fitness requirements of Conte's system, that's really going to hurt us.

Not really a blessing in disguise, imv.
 
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