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Coronavirus

scaramanga said:
That depends on what happens to hospitalisations over time.

I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest that the most vulnerable will show first. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the hospitalisation curve to flatten.
Click to expand...

Thankfully we now have a vaccine so we don't need to worry as much about your mass death experiment. Thanks though.
 
Bullet said:
To be fair, the Swedish line has been going flat vertical flat vertical flat vertical flat vertical flat vertical for a while on that chart, indicating they report in bursts.
Looking at the trendline it would have a VERY similar gradient to the UK line.
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The UK has not had an effective test track and trace system nor have they followed the guidance on lockdowns till its too late. Our woes our down to awful comms from the govt, and non compliance from the masses, and our inability to track and trace as no fecker trusts the govt with their data. So yes UK are not far off Sweden. We are both brick.
 
Could it be simply that Sweden are doing more testing than the UK?


COUNTRY CONFIRMED DEATHS/100K POP (as of 3am 31/12/2020)

Belgium 170.21
Slovenia 128.91
Bosnia and Herzegovina 121.84
Italy 121.80
North Macedonia 119.45
Peru 117.46
Montenegro 109.42
United Kingdom 109.28
Andorra 109.08
Spain 108.49
Czechia 107.56
Bulgaria 106.99
United States 104.63
Liechtenstein 102.88
Mexico 98.97
Argentina 97.01
Hungary 96.52
France 96.30
Panama 95.17
Armenia 95.10
Croatia 94.39
Brazil 92.56
Switzerland 89.17
Chile 88.09
Colombia 86.43
Sweden 85.70
Moldova 83.48
Ecuador 82.08
Luxembourg 81.45
Bolivia 80.59
Romania 80.09
Poland 73.78
Kosovo 71.80
Austria 69.50
Iran 67.35
Georgia 66.50
Portugal 66.43
Netherlands 66.26
Belize 63.17
Lithuania 50.98
South Africa 48.52
Ireland 45.86
Serbia 45.30
Malta 44.67
Greece 44.63
Bahamas 44.08
Costa Rica 43.42
Ukraine 42.71
Canada 41.82
Albania 40.96
Germany 40.07

Further selected countries:
Russia 38.55
Slovakia 37.91
Israel 37.23
Latvia 32.49
Turkey 25.08
Denmark 21.66
India 11.00
Norway 8.20
Iceland 8.20
Australia 3.64
Japan 2.56

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
 

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Spur of the moment said:
Could it be simply that Sweden are doing more testing than the UK?


COUNTRY CONFIRMED DEATHS/100K POP (as of 3am 31/12/2020)

Belgium 170.21
Slovenia 128.91
Bosnia and Herzegovina 121.84
Italy 121.80
North Macedonia 119.45
Peru 117.46
Montenegro 109.42
United Kingdom 109.28
Andorra 109.08
Spain 108.49
Czechia 107.56
Bulgaria 106.99
United States 104.63
Liechtenstein 102.88
Mexico 98.97
Argentina 97.01
Hungary 96.52
France 96.30
Panama 95.17
Armenia 95.10
Croatia 94.39
Brazil 92.56
Switzerland 89.17
Chile 88.09
Colombia 86.43
Sweden 85.70
Moldova 83.48
Ecuador 82.08
Luxembourg 81.45
Bolivia 80.59
Romania 80.09
Poland 73.78
Kosovo 71.80
Austria 69.50
Iran 67.35
Georgia 66.50
Portugal 66.43
Netherlands 66.26
Belize 63.17
Lithuania 50.98
South Africa 48.52
Ireland 45.86
Serbia 45.30
Malta 44.67
Greece 144.63
Bahamas 44.08
Costa Rica 43.42
Ukraine 42.71
Canada 41.82
Albania 40.96
Germany 40.07

Further selected countries:
Russia 38.55
Slovakia 37.91
Israel 37.23
Latvia 32.49
Turkey 25.08
Denmark 21.66
India 11.00
Norway 8.20
Iceland 8.20
Australia 3.64
Japan 2.56

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Click to expand...
Have 11 people out of every 100k died in India?

Having spent a bit of time in that country I would suggest that's pretty far off from being accurate.
 
SteveAWOL said:
UK vaccine data finally updated, we’re nearly at 1 million mark...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344684942777839620
https://twitter.com/x/status/1344687382373793796
Click to expand...

Serious question then, when is this expected to ramp up? Means we must be doing what 300,000 ish a week, needs to be over 1m a week? Will this simply happen when Oxford vaccine starts?

Surely we need some mass vaccination hubs or something


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
scaramanga said:
At that rate they'll reach immunity before we do
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They've had 430k cases out of a population of 10m. Even if you can get long term immunity through having Covid-19, which is unknown, they would need at least 12 times as many cases before that was achieved. An extra 105k preventable deaths. It would also take years to reach, so they wouldn't achieve immunity before we would with a vaccine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
 
milo said:
They've had 430k cases out of a population of 10m. Even if you can get long term immunity through having Covid-19, which is unknown, they would need at least 12 times as many cases before that was achieved. An extra 105k preventable deaths. It would also take years to reach, so they wouldn't achieve immunity before we would with a vaccine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
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I don't think you can apply previous rates to an exponential curve. It wouldn't take very long at all as it accelerates.

Seeing as vaccines imitate the virus, I suspect having had COVID-19 is at least as likely to confer immunity as any vaccine is.
 
scaramanga said:
I don't think you can apply previous rates to an exponential curve. It wouldn't take very long at all as it accelerates.

Seeing as vaccines imitate the virus, I suspect having had COVID-19 is at least as likely to confer immunity as any vaccine is.
Click to expand...

The death rate would certainly increase, as people who could survive with hospital treatment are denied that care.

I hate to call Dunning Kruger on you but your belief in effectiveness in herd immunity through contracting the disease compared to vaccination is definitely in that space. There is no evidence to support long term protection through contracting the disease or whether it would protect you against new variants. We know that vaccinations are effective and can be modified to protect against new variants.
 
milo said:
The death rate would certainly increase, as people who could survive with hospital treatment are denied that care.

I hate to call Dunning Kruger on you but your belief in effectiveness in herd immunity through contracting the disease compared to vaccination is definitely in that space. There is no evidence to support long term protection through contracting the disease or whether it would protect you against new variants. We know that vaccinations are effective and can be modified to protect against new variants.
Click to expand...
I'm not proposing "natural" immunity Vs vaccinations, I'm proposing "natural" immunity and vaccinations Vs lockdowns and governmental overreach.

Vaccines and contracting a virus do the same thing regarding immunity. Obviously vaccines are preferable as they're far safer and if it were a choice between the two, vaccines win. But immunity through contracting it is far preferable to cowering indoors and given govts free reign to do whatever they want.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
Have 11 people out of every 100k died in India?

Having spent a bit of time in that country I would suggest that's pretty far off from being accurate.
Click to expand...
Are you saying you think it''s much less or much more? 11 deaths from covid per 100,000 seems pretty low to me, but given the population is something like 1.3 billion that makes one hell of a lot in total.
 
LutonSpurs said:
So I agree. Largely if you are a layman in any topic you should blind follow the expert unless it's an exercise of academia where you can ask and hypothesise. Where we are right now is non experts are building huge platforms as experts without credentials and are getting away with violating data and giving their false interpretation. That means we need those exceptional folks who can translate the complex stuff to the laymen accurately and objectively to beat the whole post truth era we have been drawn in to. Its frightening really.
Click to expand...

Very wise.
 
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