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Coronavirus

scaramanga said:
You're confusing antibodies and immunity again.

SARS antibodies last a couple of years - quite lengthy for a coronavirus. Nobody has actually tested extended immunity (which runs far longer than antibodies) to my knowledge, although I can't see why they would, as it would be extremely rare for it not to happen.
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Memory T-Cells to original SARS pandemic detectable 17 years later. Hopefully the new UK study which started a few weeks ago can provide a clearer picture of whether this new coronavirus does the same sort of thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283995575063461888
https://twitter.com/x/status/1321027537821159424
 
SpurMeUp said:
Therefore you advocate a longer lockdown rather than swift shorter action to nip things in the bud. Your argument is a little contradictory don't you think? Lockdowns are extremely bad, so let things fester until you are desperate and have to have a longer one. Scarasense.
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No, my argument is that lockdowns are brick so don't do them.
 
SpurMeUp said:
The bigger concern are the multiple reports of people having covid twice. in these claimed instances, maybe tests weren't working. Or the virus was dormant. Or they are exceptional cases.

On the whole, I agree, at the least there will be increased immunity from getting the virus. London's low covid figures could well be related to London having had the virus more widely last winter and spring, with it only reaching the NW now. This is highly speculative. We don't know for sure. But it does seem logical that humans do build resistance. And I wish governments were more agile learning about and developing antibody tests that could free people up to help others, contribute to the economy etc. It is frustrating how slow science and governments are. Yes its only 10 months, but this is a global issue. You'd think we'd be testing the zhit out of this virus. First and foremost investing in understanding it.
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Given that the number who have contracted COVID-19 is in the millions and the credible reports of second occurrences are in the dozens(?) I really don't think we need concern ourselves about it.
 
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Grays_1890 said:
The lass who is the Chair from Edinburgh Uni for health has it nailed on. The government need to be smarter but so do people because lockdown and release till we find a vaccine is not sustainable in any way shape or form.

She was also spot on when she said that test, track and trace was pointless because people who get a positive result are not staying at home.
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Assume you’re referring to professor Sridhar...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1322218405555064832

 
Someone mentioned treatments improving to the point that it isn't lethal anymore. When it goes from a killer to a treatable but bad illness for old folk we can absolutely look at different actions. But while it is transmitting for the first time through society we would not have the capacity to handle that any time soon. Until then precautions are going to be necessary.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Therefore you advocate a longer lockdown rather than swift shorter action to nip things in the bud. Your argument is a little contradictory don't you think? Lockdowns are extremely bad, so let things fester until you are desperate and have to have a longer one. Scarasense.
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Let's say you could fully control people's behaviour (ie they don't act like clams), then if for example, everyone locked down and stayed indoors for 3 weeks you could have 1million infected people or 100k infections, it wouldn't matter the end result when you come out of lockdown would be the same.
 
elyid said:
The thing is though we don't really know the *real* figures.

I know someone who went into hospital after having a stroke (it was fairly mild but they stayed in to recover) caught Corona in hospital and are now a hospital admission stat.

I just don't understand why:

1) Admissions with CV19 on arrival aren't separated from those who caught in at hospital. Also care home admissions should be separated too.
2) All deaths aren't evaluated to get a rough idea of those who "on balance probably died because of covid", rather than caught it in hospital.

These things seem obvious to me, yet all the stats provided by the government are muddled and don't give as clear a picture as they could. In my mind it's near impossible to infer anything from "died 28 days after a + covid test". i.e. *everyone* who caught it in hospital and then died is a covid death, that's just inaccurate.
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A quarter of cases in NW of England were due to hospital transmission earlier in October.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316089676160212993

Whilst this former ONS statistician is trying to obtain Wales’ hospital transmission figures but feck knows when that granular data will be made public.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321455005338140672
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
Let's say you could fully control people's behaviour (ie they don't act like clams), then if for example, everyone locked down and stayed indoors for 3 weeks you could have 1million infected people or 100k infections, it wouldn't matter the end result when you come out of lockdown would be the same.
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It's not an airtight lockdown. Even in the first one, people have to shop, eat, deliver essential services... This time we have kids at schools etc.
 
LutonSpurs said:
Someone mentioned treatments improving to the point that it isn't lethal anymore. When it goes from a killer to a treatable but bad illness for old folk we can absolutely look at different actions. But while it is transmitting for the first time through society we would not have the capacity to handle that any time soon. Until then precautions are going to be necessary.
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Looks like significant advances were made even within the first 3 months of pandemic...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1296487256325271554

And hopefully this Recovery trial will have some more answers in time for winter...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321461084948209664
 
scaramanga said:
My analogy was clumsy but accurate.

B & T cells are like the photo of the tank and the mould for pressing the shell. They recognise and fight the virus by creating antibodies. Those antibodies do their job and then are discarded over time - weeks, months, years - depending on the virus.

The B & T cells, however, remain. Once the virus is spotted again, they will create antibodies to fight it. There is no evidence or reason to believe these cells disappear over time - it would be unusual if they did. When you read reports of short term immunity, you are reading about the antibodies, but they are not the immunity, they are the weapon used by the immune system when it is immune.
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In the case of the Sars-cov virus there are studies suggesting the memory B cells also disappeared upto 6 months after infection. The centre for evidenced based medicine suggests there may be some cross reactivity of t-cell immunity from other coronavirus infections. But don’t overplay your hand. There is not yet sufficient data to conclude either way regarding the length of immunity.
SteveAWOL said:
Memory T-Cells to original SARS pandemic detectable 17 years later. Hopefully the new UK study which started a few weeks ago can provide a clearer picture of whether this new coronavirus does the same sort of thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283995575063461888
https://twitter.com/x/status/1321027537821159424
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So levels of immunity to sars cov 2 is still an unclear in other words. The beauty of scientific research is that, especially in the early days nothing is clear. Which means it is far too early to suggest whether we are building up natural herd immunity.
 
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SpurMeUp said:
The bigger concern are the multiple reports of people having covid twice. in these claimed instances, maybe tests weren't working. Or the virus was dormant. Or they are exceptional cases.

On the whole, I agree, at the least there will be increased immunity from getting the virus. London's low covid figures could well be related to London having had the virus more widely last winter and spring, with it only reaching the NW now. This is highly speculative. We don't know for sure. But it does seem logical that humans do build resistance. And I wish governments were more agile learning about and developing antibody tests that could free people up to help others, contribute to the economy etc. It is frustrating how slow science and governments are. Yes its only 10 months, but this is a global issue. You'd think we'd be testing the zhit out of this virus. First and foremost investing in understanding it.
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Increased short term immunity perhaps but studies of other coronaviruses do not suggest long term immunity. It is plausible that some Londoners may be exhibiting the short term immunity from the spring and early summer. But be careful, cases in London are now rising rapidly again albeit not yet on the same trajectory as the north west. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the end of winter.
 
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scaramanga said:
Yeah, no thanks.
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11...updates-covid19-latest-mental-health/12836336

Yeah, no thanks. I'd rather let people die because 'the economy.'

I'm not suggesting it's as easy to get case levels to 0 in England as it is in Australia or NZ, but this country haven't given themselves even the slightest chance with the way it's been handled. I include both the general population and the government in those at fault.

Victoria were in big trouble and they went into lockdown that was enforced by Police with fines. People (mostly) did their bit and didn't behave like selfish fudging clams. Despite the Murdoch media constantly undermining the decision and behaving, well, a lot like you actually.

They fully reopened in-store retail this week, basically as normal. It was a SARS style lockdown, inspired by SE Asian countries who have been there and done this before. Guess what? Their precious economy can start to recover now.

Bojo and his bunch of clowns are trying to follow suit after the horse has fudging bolted.
 
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nayenezgani said:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11...updates-covid19-latest-mental-health/12836336

Yeah, no thanks. I'd rather let people die because 'the economy.'

I'm not suggesting it's as easy to get case levels to 0 in England as it is in Australia or NZ, but this country haven't given themselves even the slightest chance with the way it's been handled.

Victoria were in big trouble and they went into lockdown that was enforced by Police with fines. People (mostly) did their bit and didn't behave like selfish fudging clams. Despite the Murdoch media constantly undermining the decision and behaving, well, a lot like you actually.

They fully reopened in-store retail this week, basically as normal. It was a SARS style lockdown, inspired by SE Asian countries who have been there and done this before. Guess what? They're precious economy can start to recover now.

Bojo and his bunch of clowns are trying to follow suit after the horse has fudging bolted.
Click to expand...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-one-month-at-an-australian-hospital.amp.html

Just let people die because of lock down instead?
 
Robspur12 said:
Lockdown is essentially the measure you put in place because you have not adequately implemented your other measures first. Namely test, trace and isolate and as Professor Sridhar explains, the control of your borders to prevent the reintroduction of the virus.
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Actually, lockdowns are what governments do when the screeching doom mongers get so loud they can't be ignored.

Lockdowns are the politically expedient solution because they hide all the cost a few months/years/decades down the line.

People are really brick at delayed gratification - especially the less bright ones, so lockdowns seem like better solutions.
 
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