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Coronavirus

scaramanga said:
If those number are accurate (I have yet to look into how they've measured them) then the assumptions previously made about how contagious it is must be way off.

The evidence that it was around shortly after, if not before, Christmas in Europe seems reasonably solid.
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I am going to read a bit more on the French and Spanish antigen studies. They seem reasonable countries to compare and they have been hit hard by it too. If approximately 5% of the population have had it and we have a mortality rate of about 1.2-1.4% then we are in a tricky place right now.
 
elyid said:
Their estimate of 148k cases is only from 27 April to 10 May 2020 (why? I don't know).
It's confusing because they omit this fact from the graphic.
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That's because they have been testing for people who currently have it. So the study cannot be retrospective, although, hopefully, that will start very soon.
 
milo said:
I am going to read a bit more on the French and Spanish antigen studies. They seem reasonable countries to compare and they have been hit hard by it too. If approximately 5% of the population have had it and we have a mortality rate of about 1.2-1.4% then we are in a tricky place right now.
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Well the one figure we do know for certain is the excess deaths.

So it's either not very contagious or it's not very lethal. It's clearly not both.
 
milo said:
That's because they have been testing for people who currently have it. So the study cannot be retrospective, although, hopefully, that will start very soon.
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I see. It's still very useful as if R is < 1 the 148,000 should start going down.

Seems fairly promising. If you assume say West Brom have 148,000 supporters, then meeting someone with CV19 is the same likelihood as meeting a West Brom fan (feel free to suggest other clubs, just a very rough guess)
 
milo said:
No. It is saying that is how many people had it at any one time during that period. The total number of people who have had it since February will be a lot higher. If our figures are similar to France and Spain (and their studies are reliable) we are looking at approximately 3m people who have had it in the UK.
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Thanks, didn't think that could be right, but don't have time to read it atm.
Personally I think it's more than 3m and it's been here since late last year.
 
elyid said:
I see. It's still very useful as if R is < 1 the 148,000 should start going down.

Seems fairly promising. If you assume say West Brom have 148,000 supporters, then meeting someone with CV19 is the same likelihood as meeting a West Brom fan (feel free to suggest other clubs, just a very rough guess)
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Depends if you live in Birmingham or Penzance.
 
milo said:
I think that it is reasonable to think that we would see similar numbers in the UK
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I think Vallance gave broadly similar numbers a couple of days back, with a higher concentration in London than elsewhere in the country.

When placed alongside the death figures those overall infection numbers look disturbingly low to me, in terms of an implied mortality rate.
 
glasgowspur said:
Thanks, didn't think that could be right, but don't have time to read it atm.
Personally I think it's more than 3m and it's been here since late last year.
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The earliest known case in the UK is in February in Edinburgh. Five people contracted it at a Nike conference. I haven't seen any evidence that it was here earlier and I think that it is reasonable to assume that it would have spread very quickly with no measures in place.
 
shamefully taken from another forum

"I have also noticed even during the 1st 3 week lockdown when most were taking it really seriously, the only ones popping to the shops 3 times a day were the older generation.

I asked my 87 year old mum what she thought of the lockdown and TBF she had a point, stuff and nonsense was the reply...we have had a world war, Polo outbreaks, Mumps and measles, bird flu, SARS Smallpox, Hong kong flu, 3 day weeks, a few recessions, the Suez crises and the Cuba nuclear missile crises and in all those I never was made a prisoner in my own home....with the parting shot, If I die I die !

So perhaps a lot of the old have treated this with a fair bit of cynicism ?"

shes right.
 
Legohamster said:
shamefully taken from another forum

"I have also noticed even during the 1st 3 week lockdown when most were taking it really seriously, the only ones popping to the shops 3 times a day were the older generation.

I asked my 87 year old mum what she thought of the lockdown and TBF she had a point, stuff and nonsense was the reply...we have had a world war, Polo outbreaks, Mumps and measles, bird flu, SARS Smallpox, Hong kong flu, 3 day weeks, a few recessions, the Suez crises and the Cuba nuclear missile crises and in all those I never was made a prisoner in my own home....with the parting shot, If I die I die !

So perhaps a lot of the old have treated this with a fair bit of cynicism ?"

shes right.
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You're having Coronavirus chats on other forums? Firstly how dare you. Secondly get a better lockdown hobby ;)
 
Legohamster said:
shamefully taken from another forum

"I have also noticed even during the 1st 3 week lockdown when most were taking it really seriously, the only ones popping to the shops 3 times a day were the older generation.

I asked my 87 year old mum what she thought of the lockdown and TBF she had a point, stuff and nonsense was the reply...we have had a world war, Polo outbreaks, Mumps and measles, bird flu, SARS Smallpox, Hong kong flu, 3 day weeks, a few recessions, the Suez crises and the Cuba nuclear missile crises and in all those I never was made a prisoner in my own home....with the parting shot, If I die I die !

So perhaps a lot of the old have treated this with a fair bit of cynicism ?"

shes right.
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only seeing half of the problem though
 
How do we feel about a health cert?

Feom The BBC...
UK discusses Covid-19 'health certificate'
This could be one topic asked about in the government briefing that's about to begin.

An antibody test, which is expected to be rolled out across the UK, could lead to "some kind of health certificate", UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's official spokesperson said earlier today.

The test, which can determine whether people have been infected and now might now have some immunity, has been approved in the EU and US - and now by health officials in England.

The spokesperson said: "We have talked about, in the future, the potential for some kind of health certificate related to whether or not you have antibodies."

But they stressed more information was needed on immunity and coronavirus "to better understand the potential of the test".

The World Health Organization has warned governments not to issue so-called "immunity passports" or "risk-free certificates" as a way of easing lockdowns.
 
milo said:
No. It is saying that is how many people had it at any one time during that period. The total number of people who have had it since February will be a lot higher. If our figures are similar to France and Spain (and their studies are reliable) we are looking at approximately 3m people who have had it in the UK.
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Is not measuring it during a period of hiding from it going to.lead to not as many people having it (I'm assuming this was a PCR test).?
 
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