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Coronavirus

Legohamster said:
Granted I’ve only seen this on Twitter and nowhere else so more than happy to be proved as incorrect.

But Sweden have announced 5 deaths today.

If that is true it’s falling quicker than ours
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Yep because the peak is the peak for the reason it kills the old and vulnerable, so they front loaded that.

Not easy to talk about because it takes a level of accepting death as a result of the virus.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Yep because the peak is the peak for the reason it kills the old and vulnerable, so they front loaded that.

Not easy to talk about because it takes a level of accepting death as a result of the virus.
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Or it's just a reporting quirk, same as our numbers drop at weekends. They reported 10 deaths last Sunday, but 135 on Friday.
 
LutonSpurs said:
https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3B9mCVUKmQwk96qzuI6kAj2g9Wt5YDJRkuV26MHADFu0Iz8PVEUEi2nHQ

What Happens Next?
COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
30 min play/read · by Marcel Salathé (epidemiologist) & Nicky Case (art/code)
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Jeez....that's pretty fine work. How accurate it all is open to question but brilliantly open to query as well.

Open source and up front about multiple approaches and interventions.

Obviously the biggest curve ball is controlling, monitoring, and most of all getting the population to comply over a long time frame. And genuinely gauging (may only be possible with hindsight) the negative side effects of issues beyond the focus of keeping the R below 1.
 
LutonSpurs said:
https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3B9mCVUKmQwk96qzuI6kAj2g9Wt5YDJRkuV26MHADFu0Iz8PVEUEi2nHQ

What Happens Next?
COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
30 min play/read · by Marcel Salathé (epidemiologist) & Nicky Case (art/code)
Click to expand...
An interesting little exercise.

Unfortunately they don't allow you to play with all of the variables - the most important of which being the proportion of cases that require hospitalisation. The graph overlaying Sweden's actual deaths on the apocalyptic Imperial nonsense shows that.
 
scaramanga said:
Think about it from a position of the virus already being here and already spreading here.

Adding a few thousand people (most of whom won't be infected) to a population of 70m doesn't really change much at all.

If you're not social distancing, everyone will get it and develop immunity anyway. If you are distancing, then those who have it can't spread it anyway.

When you consider cost Vs benefit, it's really not much of a win when the numbers are already increasing. It may have some small effect when the numbers are reducing.
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I understand what you're saying, that's why my issue is more with the lack of restrictions earlier in the piece than now. I just don't accept that the cut off point lay so far back in time that there was essentially never any benefit to be gained.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I understand what you're saying, that's why my issue is more with the lack of restrictions earlier in the piece than now. I just don't accept that the cut off point lay so far back in time that there was essentially never any benefit to be gained.
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If there are no cases in the country, the measure will be 100% effective (almost, anyway).

If there are any cases in the country and they're increasing (so, what was probably end of Nov19 through to a couple of weeks ago) then the effect is negligible.

If there are cases but they're trending down then the effect is stronger.
 
Pretty clear message there, we will relax some rules but how quick we exit is up to you, you mess about with the rules it will take longer.

That’s the public responsibility part
 
Its obviously a balancing act and as we are running a little behind Germany Italy Korea etc...perhaps the early reports of infection rises has taken some things off the table eg more shops opening, bars, gatherings etc as maybe 'on and off' restrictions might be harder to activate and just 'too much' for the average clam to get his iq round.
 
You don't think telling people they need to go to work tomorrow (but not via public transport), won't be at all confusing for those affected and the businesses they work for?
 
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