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Coronavirus

Of course it is going to be difficult to compare numbers across countries due to different counting methods, what's included/excluded, time take to report/collate figures etc. But the government was happy enough to show comparisons in the charts they present every day when the UK was coming in below those comparator countries, without any caveats as to different models of calculation (that I recall at least). That's why they are getting flak now for using that excuse/reason to talk down the UK having the highest number of deaths in Europe.

Moreover, if I had a tinfoil hat, which I don't, I'd maybe be pondering on the Ferguson story coming out the same day our number of deaths top those across Europe.
 
Legohamster said:
Because the stats are completely miss leading And scaremongering and partly made up.

Whack them all in-together and of course it looks worse

Break it down to age groups and then it shows a complete lock down rather than shielding was wrong

We are doing nothing with this data.
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Can certainly look at lockdown and question other public health strategies that we implemented or didn't (more interesting to look at what public health strategies we use moving forward as we open up). But stats on people dying is pretty much the only cut and dry measure we have. You're alive or you're dead! That is not a made-up stat. For many years, when people measure flu it is done using average deaths, and the difference to the norm accounts for the effects of flu. In this instance, the difference accounts for covid (unless you 'one' can identify another reason for spike in deaths). It's not perfect data but it is as close as you are going to get.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Of course it is going to be difficult to compare numbers across countries due to different counting methods, what's included/excluded, time take to report/collate figures etc. But the government was happy enough to show comparisons in the charts they present every day when the UK was coming in below those comparator countries, without any caveats as to different models of calculation (that I recall at least). That's why they are getting flak now for using that excuse/reason to talk down the UK having the highest number of deaths in Europe.

Moreover, if I had a tinfoil hat, which I don't, I'd maybe be pondering on the Ferguson story coming out the same day our number of deaths top those across Europe.
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I'm not sure that's fair. I seem to recall it being made clear for quite a while that the UK death numbers in the government charts were hospital-only deaths.
 
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johnola said:
Deaths from industrial accidents and car crash fatalities should be down a lot.

I heard in Italy the average Leigh expectancy lost per death was more like a decade than a year. You have to take into account how old someone already is before knowing their additional expectancy. For example Colonel Tom Moore is 100, we don’t think his life expectancy is -18 years to match the average of the nation.

Clearly we will see a vast number of excess deaths this calendar year.
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Why is there going to be vast amounts of excess deaths?
What is an excess death?
Excess of what measurement?
The expected deaths in the UK per year is 600k.
It has not been that for several years.
I will be very surprised if it over this year.
 
SpurMeUp said:
1. It’s not just a week is it? It’s more like 2 months

2. When deaths say in care homes are 7-8,000 vs the norm for this time of year of 2-3,000 I think you can be sensible and see there is a clear shift no?

Not sure why people are trying to make out there isn’t a very significant shift, isn’t it patently obvious that this virus is taking many lives?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Yes it is taking many lives, I haven't seen anyone make any claims that it isn't. I certainly am not.
What I am trying to explain is that these numbers need context and have be viewed over a longer term.
Death works to its own rules and its own timescales.
 
Interesting to hear the Cambridge statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter (who the government were so keen to quote over the weekend) saying on Radio 2 today that “however you look at it, the UK has not done particularly well” when it comes to covid mortality rates. Plenty of evidence, he says, that the correct approach was to “go early and go hard” with lockdown, as lots of governments chose to do

While Germany, Switzerland and Austria (now all well into re-opening their economies) were amongst European countries doing just that we were still being told to shake hands, go to Cheltenham, go to football, go to rugby...
 
Also interesting to watch PMQs today. The Prime Minister looked exposed by Starmer’s questioning. He reminded me of a Year 12 trying to bluff his way through an oral GCSE. The silence in the chamber made it even more obvious he was struggling.
 
AuroRaman said:
Did you also check to see where Germany are in the WHO measurements? And 'the best healthcare system in the world' the United States?
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Can't work out Germany. I know their hospitals are better than UK ones as I've seen them both.

I assume the US numbers count those without healthcare. That doesn't mean much to me as I have healthcare.
 
awesome dawson said:
Whatever Rain Main..



In answer to your question above, a majority of new cases in Australia were coming from overseas; social distancing is limited in its success with certain populations, levels of civic obedience, in the way its being done here (Melbourne) and in the UK, from what i saw during my two weeks in London. Stop the new cases from coming in and you can theoretically eliminate the virus from the population. Eg NZ.

Allow 3 million people to swan into Heathrow during March and surprise surprise..
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If those people are distancing then they can't spread it.
 
And finally, interesting to see Heathrow introducing temperature screening for arrivals. So we can add that to the incoming UK track and trace strategy under ‘Things the UK government should have done two months ago.’
 
awesome dawson said:
Coughing, sneezing, surface contamination..a whole load of information isn't known yet about Covid but to say categorically that social distancing solves this crisis is absurd.
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If the level of proof you require is that high then you could say precisely the same for travel.
 
Mikey10 said:
And finally, interesting to see Heathrow introducing temperature screening for arrivals. So we can add that to the incoming UK track and trace strategy under ‘Things the UK government should have done two months ago.’
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Track and trace is something that I have thought about for a few days and I wonder if it really works or if the countries that are using it are seeing less numbers in deaths due to an earlier shut down?

The reason I ask is that based on the science behind Covid19 if you have it and you spread it to one and he does to one and so on for 10 contacts its in the thousands of infections. So we have a highly contagious virus that has hugely mild early symptoms, in some cases a week to two weeks, so if you have contracted is by the time its reported and the traces matched you would have passed it on to masses and they would have passed it to masses and so on and so on?

Im not defending us not having it, I just wonder how effective it is to prevent or if its just good to know who has it?

I am sure there are those on here that know better and will correct, so fire away.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Of course it is going to be difficult to compare numbers across countries due to different counting methods, what's included/excluded, time take to report/collate figures etc. But the government was happy enough to show comparisons in the charts they present every day when the UK was coming in below those comparator countries, without any caveats as to different models of calculation (that I recall at least). That's why they are getting flak now for using that excuse/reason to talk down the UK having the highest number of deaths in Europe.

Moreover, if I had a tinfoil hat, which I don't, I'd maybe be pondering on the Ferguson story coming out the same day our number of deaths top those across Europe.
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Indeed. Looks like they are beginning to run out of statistics, and people, to hide behind.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258087627003179009

Over 6,000 new infections today. Not the figures of a country dealing with this successfully more than three months in; nor one ready to really begin to ease the lockdown.
 
Mikey10 said:
Indeed. Looks like they are beginning to run out of statistics, and people, to hide behind.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258087627003179009

Over 6,000 new infections today. Not the figures of a country dealing with this successfully more than three months in; nor one ready to really begin to ease the lockdown.
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We don’t ease the lockdown and get younger fit people back to work, people will die anyway.
 
Mikey10 said:
Your view is disputed by many intelligent people, including those who have considerable experience of government.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...the-economy-and-health?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Who is going to pay for the NHS?

Who is going to pay for people’s mortgages?

Who is going to pay for people’s food?

Who is going to pay for the benefits that are increasing through job loses?

Do mental health/missed cancer treatment deaths not count?

That link is disputed by many more who realise the above.
 
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