Coronavirus

[SpurMeUp]

The graphs you are talking about are the ones that compared deviation in death rate as a multiple of SD (standard deviation) per country aren't they?. You can't plot those two items on a single line.

As an example; Country A has an average of 1,000 deaths per month. In Jan it has 1,100 deaths and Feb, 900. Country A has an SD of 100.
Country B also has an average of 1,000 deaths per month. In Jan it has 1,200 deaths and Feb 800. Country B has an SD of 200.

Now, in March both countries have 1,400 deaths as they are both in a pandemic. The excess deaths in each country due to the pandemic are 400 (1,400 - mean of 1,000). But if you plot multiples of SD as a few publications recently have, Country A is running at 4SD and country B only at 2SD. Yet both have had the pandemic cause the same effect.

Disclaimer - in a single data point such as this, you have to consider variance, as there's not longer term trend to show if it's a spike on SD or VS SD. The charts published recently show a longer term trend so variance will be inherent.

You're overcomplicating something very simple. We know the average number of deaths in the UK for this time of year (and we can break it down for care homes too). Without flu doing the rounds the data on people passing away is relatively consistent year on year.

The simplest way to measure fatalities caused by the virus is to see how different our average figures are now. @Legohamster this will include any indirect deaths caused by covid. For example, people not attending hospitals and getting treatment for other conditions who die as a result. This may skew the data a tiny bit.

This is how we measure the impacts of flu as Mr @glasgowspur outlined, and it is the only effective way to measure nations death toll from this virus.

 

[scaramanga]

You're overcomplicating something very simple. We know the average number of deaths in the UK for this time of year (and we can break it down for care homes too). Without flu doing the rounds the data on people passing away is relatively consistent year on year.

The simplest way to measure fatalities caused by the virus is to see how different our average figures are now. @Legohamster this will include any indirect deaths caused by covid. For example, people not attending hospitals and getting treatment for other conditions who die as a result. This may skew the data a tiny bit.

This is how we measure the impacts of flu as Mr @glasgowspur outlined, and it is the only effective way to measure nations death toll from this virus.

You're right it is overcomplicated and that's what the graphs were showing. It doesn't need the extra layer of two datasets plotted on a single line - they just did that to make a political point.

 

[Parklaner81]

Anecdotal experience. I have experienced healthcare in probably double that amount (and lived in three different continents with varying systems). UK comes second to NZ. However, that's anecdotal on my part too.

Edit: Just to add, I am also a clumsy fudger.

The value of your ranking, and the UK's relatively high position in it, surely depends to a large extent on who the other 6 countries are though?

 

[Legohamster]

 

[Parklaner81]

Care to step me through how quarantining arrivals in a country that is practicing social distancing can have any significant effect?

You're probably correct that we aren't currently at the point where this policy would have it's maximum effect.

Then again, we did virtually nothing in this regard pre-lockdown, and my guess is we'll do roughly the same amount after it too.

 

[Legohamster]

You're overcomplicating something very simple. We know the average number of deaths in the UK for this time of year (and we can break it down for care homes too). Without flu doing the rounds the data on people passing away is relatively consistent year on year.

The simplest way to measure fatalities caused by the virus is to see how different our average figures are now. @Legohamster this will include any indirect deaths caused by covid. For example, people not attending hospitals and getting treatment for other conditions who die as a result. This may skew the data a tiny bit.

This is how we measure the impacts of flu as Mr @glasgowspur outlined, and it is the only effective way to measure nations death toll from this virus.

Care homes aren’t able to test either

So they assume if one person has it everyone in the care home has it, possible yes- but makes the stats hit and miss

 

[Parklaner81]

How Pathetic is Raab. No, no, no, those other countries can't count properly, so we don't have the highest death rate in Europe. What a complete lack of dignity, in trying to spin the numbers. Not only is he pathetic, he is also incredibly stupid. This is a consequence of the Brexit fall out. The cabinet is full of D graders with this idiot and the likes of Patel.

Here's another pathetic, incredibly stupid, dignity-lacking source for you, saying pretty much the same thing...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

 

[SpurMeUp]

Care homes aren’t able to test either

So they assume if one person has it everyone in the care home has it, possible yes- but makes the stats hit and miss

Ok. You've identified why the only way to get true figures is to look at average deaths for each month and see how they differ to numbers dying now. The difference between the normal average and now, gives us the number of people dying from this virus. No assumptions. Past data gives us the average deaths in April in care homes as X, and now its Y. This is relatively clear data.

 

[glasgowspur]

Nobody looks at the death rate over a week and compares it to another week, it tells you nothing.
Even three months is iffy.

As things return to normal someone with a thicker skin than me will produce a report on excess deaths for the year. I predict low 1000s
They will more than likely also give a figure for how much earlier the average person in that group died, I expect this to be between 8-12 months.

Without being in any way flippant predictng/comparing death in such a short span is like predecting Comparing rainfall.

 

[AuroRaman]

I had a dig around to ensure my memory wasn't playing tricks on me.

Under WHO measurements, the UK isn't even top 10. In fact, the only measurement I can find that ranks the UK highly is a set of opinion surveys.

Did you also check to see where Germany are in the WHO measurements? And 'the best healthcare system in the world' the United States?

 

[awesome dawson]

The graphs you are talking about are the ones that compared deviation in death rate as a multiple of SD (standard deviation) per country aren't they?. You can't plot those two items on a single line.

As an example; Country A has an average of 1,000 deaths per month. In Jan it has 1,100 deaths and Feb, 900. Country A has an SD of 100.
Country B also has an average of 1,000 deaths per month. In Jan it has 1,200 deaths and Feb 800. Country B has an SD of 200.

Now, in March both countries have 1,400 deaths as they are both in a pandemic. The excess deaths in each country due to the pandemic are 400 (1,400 - mean of 1,000). But if you plot multiples of SD as a few publications recently have, Country A is running at 4SD and country B only at 2SD. Yet both have had the pandemic cause the same effect.

Disclaimer - in a single data point such as this, you have to consider variance, as there's not longer term trend to show if it's a spike on SD or VS SD. The charts published recently show a longer term trend so variance will be inherent.

Whatever Rain Main..



In answer to your question above, a majority of new cases in Australia were coming from overseas; social distancing is limited in its success with certain populations, levels of civic obedience, in the way its being done here (Melbourne) and in the UK, from what i saw during my two weeks in London. Stop the new cases from coming in and you can theoretically eliminate the virus from the population. Eg NZ.

Allow 3 million people to swan into Heathrow during March and surprise surprise..

 

[johnola]

Nobody looks at the death rate over a week and compares it to another week, it tells you nothing.
Even three months is iffy.

As things return to normal someone with a thicker skin than me will produce a report on excess deaths for the year. I predict low 1000s
They will more than likely also give a figure for how much earlier the average person in that group died, I expect this to be between 8-12 months.

Without being in any way flippant predictng/comparing death in such a short span is like predecting Comparing rainfall.

Deaths from industrial accidents and car crash fatalities should be down a lot.

I heard in Italy the average Leigh expectancy lost per death was more like a decade than a year. You have to take into account how old someone already is before knowing their additional expectancy. For example Colonel Tom Moore is 100, we don’t think his life expectancy is -18 years to match the average of the nation.

Clearly we will see a vast number of excess deaths this calendar year.

 

[AuroRaman]

The value of your ranking, and the UK's relatively high position in it, surely depends to a large extent on who the other 6 countries are though?

My ranking has little to no value, it's my anecdotal opinion

But if you're interested:

Istanbul, Turkey
Bangkok, Thailand (I stayed at the Bumrungrad Hospital here, honestly it was one of the most incredible hospitals I've ever been to, we kept mistakenly calling it a hotel. In fact I just wrote 'I stayed' there.
Auckland, New Zealand
Sydney, Australia
Amsterdam, Netherlands
London, UK
Dubai
New Dehli, India

Writing it down now I believe there's more places.

 

[Parklaner81]

My ranking has little to no value, it's my anecdotal opinion

But if you're interested:

Istanbul, Turkey
Bangkok, Thailand (I stayed at the Bumrungrad Hospital here, honestly it was one of the most incredible hospitals I've ever been to, we kept mistakenly calling it a hotel. In fact I just wrote 'I stayed' there.
Auckland, New Zealand
Sydney, Australia
Amsterdam, Netherlands
London, UK
Dubai
New Dehli, India

Writing it down now I believe there's more places.

It has a value relative to Scara's - and that would depend very largely on the countries involved. He had disclosed these, you hadn't. That's what I was driving at.

Honestly surprised to hear you rank the UK so highly among that kind of company, though. And where in the UK outranks this Thai hospital, out of interest..?!

 

[SpurMeUp]

Nobody looks at the death rate over a week and compares it to another week, it tells you nothing.
Even three months is iffy.

As things return to normal someone with a thicker skin than me will produce a report on excess deaths for the year. I predict low 1000s
They will more than likely also give a figure for how much earlier the average person in that group died, I expect this to be between 8-12 months.

Without being in any way flippant predictng/comparing death in such a short span is like predecting Comparing rainfall.

1. It’s not just a week is it? It’s more like 2 months

2. When deaths say in care homes are 7-8,000 vs the norm for this time of year of 2-3,000 I think you can be sensible and see there is a clear shift no?

Not sure why people are trying to make out there isn’t a very significant shift, isn’t it patently obvious that this virus is taking many lives?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[AuroRaman]

It has a value relative to Scara's - and that would depend very largely on the countries involved. He had disclosed these, you hadn't. That's what I was driving at.

Honestly surprised to hear you rank the UK so highly among that kind of company, though. And where in the UK outranks this Thai hospital, out of interest..?!

I concede to potentially clouded judgement as I have a few guns in the fight. I have an auto-immune condition which means I utilise NHS services somewhat more than the average person. The overall care has been spectacular, the compassion and patience of the nurses and specialists like nowhere else I have personally witnessed, public or private. They make mistakes (mostly on the admin side), sometimes I have to pull them up on it. Such is life. I also know a fair amount of front-line staff personally. My ex was a nurse who is now in the upper echelons of NHS England, (one of those rare individuals in management who knows what is required for hospitals, services and staff to operate effectively having been on the front-line). It saddens me when people say 'the NHS is failing', whether they're fighting for the 'fudge the Tories' contingent or the 'free market' movement. It's not failing but it has been failed many times.

My friend, Bumrungrad Hospital ain't got nothing on the good old Homerton Hospital

In seriousness, the facilities in Thailand, New Delhi and Dubai were spectacular. I just prefer the eccentric local nurses who bust my balls in East London!

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

Here's another pathetic, incredibly stupid, dignity-lacking source for you, saying pretty much the same thing...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

What saying that Raab is incredibly stupid and pathetic? I thought that was a given anyway.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I just prefer the eccentric local nurses who bust my balls in East London!

No wonder you luv em!

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

Raab is basically saying move on, nothing to see here, we are doing wonderfully...and people are swallowing it. Oh yes we are doing frightfully well.

 

[Legohamster]

1. It’s not just a week is it? It’s more like 2 months

2. When deaths say in care homes are 7-8,000 vs the norm for this time of year of 2-3,000 I think you can be sensible and see there is a clear shift no?

Not sure why people are trying to make out there isn’t a very significant shift, isn’t it patently obvious that this virus is taking many lives?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Because the stats are completely miss leading And scaremongering and partly made up.

Whack them all in-together and of course it looks worse

Break it down to age groups and then it shows a complete lock down rather than shielding was wrong

We are doing nothing with this data.