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Coronavirus

Grays_1890 said:
German studies are pointing towards there being 1.5m more cases in the country than realised.
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Finally a few snippets of good news. Lots of countries have now begun opening up again before the UK, so we should be able to see how that plays out for them first
 
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-01...WRbXA0LFkkVqhEhc8jc9Ui_XC8HM6HuFefkQEhVXbA0dU

This is and always has been my view, many people call it political and I’ve maintained its logic based on what is needed for lockdown to be deemed a success if it ever can be deemed a success or if there is a winner or loser, there isn’t we are all losers in this.

As much as we have all chewed the fat over this for just 2 months, this is a fudging long haul that hasn’t even started yet.
 
Grays_1890 said:
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-01...WRbXA0LFkkVqhEhc8jc9Ui_XC8HM6HuFefkQEhVXbA0dU

This is and always has been my view, many people call it political and I’ve maintained its logic based on what is needed for lockdown to be deemed a success if it ever can be deemed a success or if there is a winner or loser, there isn’t we are all losers in this.

As much as we have all chewed the fat over this for just 2 months, this is a fudging long haul that hasn’t even started yet.
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Speaking as a layman, I'd imagine that this would particularly be the case if the virus does prove to have seasonal tendencies.

It didn't really take off here until March, which might have been a stroke of luck. If a second wave has an entire winter season to go at, I'd say it almost certainly would be more severe.

Edit - which, it turns out upon actually reading it, is pretty much what the article says!
 
Parklaner81 said:
Speaking as a layman, I'd imagine that this would particularly be the case if the virus does prove to have seasonal tendencies.

It didn't really take off here until March, which might have been a stroke of luck. If a second wave has an entire winter season to go at, I'd say it almost certainly would be more severe.

Edit - which, it turns out upon actually reading it, is pretty much what the article says!
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Yep and there lies the crux of my points, come the end of this year, we will see a completely different picture to that we see now, thats why ok lets pat Germany on the back but I will reserve any judgement when we see the full picture.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
But had we locked down sooner, the peak may have been reached earlier (less spread of the virus, fewer infections) with fewer mortalities?

I do think the type of 'lock-down' we have in the UK has in itself created the circumstances where people can more easily begin to ignore the advice. ('Advice' being a key term). It has been less stringent than some other European countries and enforcement has been on a persuasive rather than a punitive basis. There are arguments in favour of that overall approach of course but a lock down environment where there's really nothing stopping me going out ten times a day if I were so inclined, where I can travel for non-essential work, where DIY stores are re-opening their doors etc. is almost designed to encourage people to start relaxing their adherence. Add to that the PM announcing with a flourish that we have now passed the peak, it's not really a surprise to see more people out and about.
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I agree, in hindsight we should have locked down earlier but people didn't think so at the time. Infact most people seemed to agree with Johnson softening people up over a week or 2 towards a full lockdown but at the time it didn't quite feel real that so many cases and deaths would come. I mean how often has a new virus appeared so to most people it seemed unbelieveable however the government would have more access to info than the public but again I think they and many scientists probably didn't quite believe it either.

But looking back that week of semi lockdown will likely turn out to be key and could have been the turning point between a huge reduction in cases, of course we'll never know.

Ideally and I'm sure we've learnt our lesson now would be to lock down at the first hint of a virus so should it happen again in the future use our island status to our advantage and stop incomings (apart from citizens and those with right to remain and jobs here etc) in the equivalent of January, would have kept most of the economy going and a very low rate of cases.

On testing South Korea apparently only test 25-30K a day so I don't think the number is as important as good tracing, technology and people who respect the need to isolate when asked.
 
P.D. said:
I agree, in hindsight we should have locked down earlier but people didn't think so at the time.
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And now its become popular for people who wanted lock down to jump on this "quicker to lockdown, quicker to leave" and jump on a high horse about still being locked down. Like you I go back to when this all started and the people that are all experts now didn't know how this was panning out and I would suggest still don't. Alot of hindsight bashing.
 
P.D. said:
I
Ideally and I'm sure we've learnt our lesson now would be to lock down at the first hint of a virus so should it happen again in the future use our island status to our advantage and stop incomings (apart from citizens and those with right to remain and jobs here etc) in the equivalent of January, would have kept most of the economy going and a very low rate of cases.
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I think this is spot on, I think the worlds learnt a lesson and we all have personally too. I also believe the learning is still to come, thats why I keep questioning everything and not just us, people see it as me defending Bojo or politicising the issue but its not, its a case of me saying we can all learn and we could have all done better us included 100%.

All in all, its one crazy crazy time.
 
Grays_1890 said:
And now its become popular for people who wanted lock down to jump on this "quicker to lockdown, quicker to leave" and jump on a high horse about still being locked down. Like you I go back to when this all started and the people that are all experts now didn't know how this was panning out and I would suggest still don't. Alot of hindsight bashing.
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There were also a lot of people before the lockdown and as early as February who were arguing for banning mass gatherings and in March who argued against stopping community based testing. Many professionals in public health and the NHS were ignored in favour of mathematicians and their modelling. I think the focus was too much on protecting the NHS rather than saving lives per se. So it’s not just hindsight which is the popular accusation of people trying to shut down debate.
 
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Robspur12 said:
There were also a lot of people before the lockdown and as early as February who were arguing for banning mass gatherings and in March who argued against stopping community based testing. Many professionals in public health and the NHS were ignored in favour of mathematicians and their modelling. I think the focus was too much on protecting the NHS rather than saving lives per se. So it’s not just hindsight which is the popular accusation of people trying to shut down debate.
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From what I recall there wasn't a majority for those things but there were definitely people around advising more caution, like it or not when there's a once in 100 years pandemic people don't really believe the scare stories. Equally there was plenty of qualified people around who had the opposite opinion.

Problem with science is that there's usually people who back both sides of the argument, I mean look at Sweden - most countries would think they are crazy but clearly the people leading the policy are highly qualified to make those decisions, certainly as qualified as those advising a lockdown.
 
P.D. said:
I mean how often has a new virus appeared so to most people it seemed unbelieveable however the government would have more access to info than the public but again I think they and many scientists probably didn't quite believe it either.
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If only we’d had a couple of European countries who were two or three weeks ahead of us in being hit by the virus so that we could have had an idea what the effects were going to be...
 
Robspur12 said:
There were also a lot of people before the lockdown and as early as February who were arguing for banning mass gatherings and in March who argued against stopping community based testing. Many professionals in public health and the NHS were ignored in favour of mathematicians and their modelling. I think the focus was too much on protecting the NHS rather than saving lives per se. So it’s not just hindsight which is the popular accusation of people trying to shut down debate.
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I am not trying to shut down debate, I try and encourage it, I also like to question things, its good in my mind to do that. I wrong alot of the time, I don't know enough about this to be 100% correct and I accept that, I offer up a POV that I hold personally and if thats wrong thats fine, its a discussion board.

Non of this is personal either, its all just about thrashing it out, I also think in a weird way its almost therapeutic for people to unravel it in their heads.

I think there have been many crossroads, save economy was an early one, save the NHS and then save lives but I think saving the NHS and saving lives is in a way the same thing or the same ball park. I also think there will be a number of these cross roads to come, where a choice has to be made, no doubt there will be wrong choices made but also right ones.
 
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