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Coronavirus

monkeybarry said:
That's your basis for thinking in three weeks it "won't be too bad"?
Hope you don't work in risk management
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No.

My basis for that is how the human 'crowd' behaves - sociology - and how the media distort all of our risk management rationale. If you are hearing nothing but virus virus virus every day, its natural it will freak everyone out.

There will come a point where people's hysteria subsides, imo. What do you think?
 
SpurMeUp said:
No.

My basis for that is how the human 'crowd' behaves - sociology - and how the media distort all of our risk management rationale. If you are hearing nothing but virus virus virus every day, its natural it will freak everyone out.

There will come a point where people's hysteria subsides, imo. What do you think?
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I look at the numbers and science and ignore the hysteria.
And I still think it's serious, with easy transmission and no vaccine. So no, I don't think it will have died down in three weeks.
The narrative is might be more BAU, but that BAU will look different than BAU did a month ago
 
monkeybarry said:
I look at the numbers and science and ignore the hysteria.
And I still think it's serious, with easy transmission and no vaccine. So no, I don't think it will have died down in three weeks.
The narrative is might be more BAU, but that BAU will look different than BAU did a month ago
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The numbers are not easy to interpret. How many people have the virus and don't get checked out? Masses is the reasonably logical conclusion. Remember the chap skiing in France? That was what a month ago? He had almost no symptoms. Somehow he got tested - because he'd been to China. If he hadn't and had the same symptoms, what are the odds of that individual getting tested? When all they probably have is a sore throat and a little fatigue? Therefore the mortality rate is likely skewed. Especially since there are indications Corona is highly infectious - spreads more readily than other viruses.

BAU = business as usual? If so that is a different state to now.
 
SpurMeUp said:
The numbers are not easy to interpret. How many people have the virus and don't get checked out? Masses is the reasonably logical conclusion. Remember the chap skiing in France? That was what a month ago? He had almost no symptoms. Somehow he got tested - because he'd been to China. If he hadn't and had the same symptoms, what are the odds of that individual getting tested? When all they probably have is a sore throat and a little fatigue? Therefore the mortality rate is likely skewed. Especially since there are indications Corona is highly infectious - spreads more readily than other viruses.

BAU = business as usual? If so that is a different state to now.
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The numbers of people having the disease is certainly under reported, different countries are taking different approaches to testing and have different capacity. It also has a long incubation period, so there are a lot of infected people who are capable of passing it on but are currently showing no symptoms.

What we do know is that it is easy to transmit and (based on the official figures) is serious in about 10% of cases, requires hospital treatment (help breathing) in about 5% of cases and kills between 1-3%. It is more than capable of overwhelming hospitals in developed countries. Without drastic measures, it poses a very serious risk, not just to those who contract it but to people with other conditions that require hospital treatment but are unable to get it because hospitals are at breaking point.

Diseases come in waves, COVID-19 will pass the first wave in most western countries in the next four to six weeks. There will be subsequent waves, the worst probably happening next autumn/winter. Worldwide, it could kill millions.

I have seen no evidence that the symptoms are becoming less severe as it spreads.
 
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milo said:
I have seen no evidence that the symptoms are becoming less severe as it spreads.
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I was just hypothesising. Science is not as watertight on these things, as we seem to expect it to be. One other thing was the Chinese Doctor who tragically passed away in his early 30s. Clearly he doesn't fit the normal demographic, as the virus seems to be far more dangerous in the elderly. It may be that he had a more virulent form of the virus as he was closer to the outbreak. We just don't know. The science is not clear.

I would ask, have you seen any evidence that symptoms are not becoming less severe? These things are clearly complex and I am far from experienced with anything medical. Just an idea, that may or may not be true.
 
SpurMeUp said:
I was just hypothesising. Science is not as watertight on these things, as we seem to expect it to be. One other thing was the Chinese Doctor who tragically passed away in his early 30s. Clearly he doesn't fit the normal demographic, as the virus seems to be far more dangerous in the elderly. It may be that he had a more virulent form of the virus as he was closer to the outbreak. We just don't know. The science is not clear.

I would ask, have you seen any evidence that symptoms are not becoming less severe? These things are clearly complex and I am far from experienced with anything medical. Just an idea, that may or may not be true.
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The disease has only been around for a few months and the sample size is still quite small, so obviously there is a lot still to learn but the science is a lot tighter that idle speculation.

The disease is killing 0.2% of 30-39 year olds, so with thousands of people contracting it, there will be deaths in that age group.
 
milo said:
The numbers of people having the disease is certainly under reported, different countries are taking different approaches to testing and have different capacity. It also has a long incubation period, so there are a lot of infected people who are capable of passing it on but are currently showing no symptoms.

What we do know is that it is easy to transmit and (based on the official figures) is serious in about 10% of cases, requires hospital treatment (help breathing) in about 5% of cases and kills between 1-3%. It is more than capable of overwhelming hospitals in developed countries. Without drastic measures, it poses a very serious risk, not just to those who contract it but to people with other conditions that require hospital treatment but are unable to get it because hospitals are at breaking point.

Diseases come in waves, COVID-19 will pass the first wave in most western countries in the next four to six weeks. There will be subsequent waves, the worst probably happening next autumn/winter. Worldwide, it could kill millions.

I have seen no evidence that the symptoms are becoming less severe as it spreads.
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Does the first part of your post undermine the second?

If the disease is 1. certainly under-reported, and 2. easy to transmit, how can anyone say with any certainty that it is serious in 10% of cases? 5% hospitalisation or 1-3% fatal? You are not counting all those who show no symptoms or mild symptoms who remain unreported.

I would suggest the true % figures are likely lower. But it is too early to say for sure. We just don't know.
 
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milo said:
The disease has only been around for a few months and the sample size is still quite small, so obviously there is a lot still to learn but the science is a lot tighter that idle speculation.

The disease is killing 0.2% of 30-39 year olds, so with thousands of people contracting it, there will be deaths in that age group.
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How does anyone know this if the virus is often undetected? Or is the disease killing 0.2% of 30-39 yos who are diagnosed? That is a profoundly different statistic.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Does the first part of your post undermine the second?

If the disease is 1. certainly unreported, and 2. ear to transmit, how can anyone say with any certainty that it is serious in 10% of cases? 5% or 1-3%?

I would suggest the true % figures likely lower. But it is too early to say for sure. We just don't know.
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I'm basing it on the best available data and have admitted the weaknesses that I am aware of.

What is certain is that without serious preventative measures it will overwhelm our hospitals and kills thousands.
 
SpurMeUp said:
How does anyone know this if the virus is often undetected? Or is the disease killing 0.2% of 30-39 yos who are diagnosed? That is a profoundly different statistic.
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It is the best available data. We know that there are gaps and that different countries have different approaches to testing. The South Korean data is worth looking at, they have very extensive testing and there will be far less cases undetected there. They are also one of the countries hit hardest, so the numbers are more robust.
 
Meanwhile Donald Trump says people should “stay calm” and the coronavirus “will go away”.
 
milo said:
It is the best available data. We know that there are gaps and that different countries have different approaches to testing. The South Korean data is worth looking at, they have very extensive testing and there will be far less cases undetected there. They are also one of the countries hit hardest, so the numbers are more robust.
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markysimmo said:
My Mrs works for the same company as me so if we both get sent home 10 days with her would be a challenge

Than if they shut down schools and nurseries all 4 of us at home for 2 weeks

I'd rather take my chance with Coronavirus !!
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Will certainly add a frisson to the Skype sessions.
 
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