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American politics

Jurgen the German said:
So in a nutshell, not the massive win people were predicting for the GOP? Democracy is still alive (for now).
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The early takeaway seems to be that a lot of the republican candidates that got Trump's endorsement were too far right and loony for the more moderate voters. They sacrificed everything to win the primary and lost the actual election.

The Dems apparently scored a major own goal in the redistricting of NY and lost a few seats there.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590339126397923329
 
Rorschach said:
The Biden approval (which is on the rise actually) has not been tracking at all with the enthusiasm for individual candidates is what I have read. These are not connected as they have been in previous elections, which is good for the democrats it would appear. It is the same dynamic inversely with Trump in some ways. If Trump declares then the focus will immediately land on him and every vote will be about him. This is something the GOP is trying to avoid at the moment, as the article you link also mentioned.

One thing which has been skewing the MSM coverage is recent polls that have trended republican. These polls also influence poll aggregate sites like 538 and influence their message. However, these have been very partisan polls and appear to be a part of a concerted effort to seed the narrative of a looming red wave where none exists. I think this is just cynical electioneering really. Time will tell I guess but I think the young vote will make the difference.
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This was spot on analysis, called it perfectly.
 
P.D. said:
This was spot on analysis, called it perfectly.
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Smarter folks than I called it that way.

Polling has become hit and miss (mostly miss) because it is very skewed to an older generation who answer the landline. Pollsters have to work really hard to get something representative of a cross-section of voters and this becomes more difficult each year. Younger voters don't have landlines and rarely pick up unknown numbers. They'll have to find a different way to do this or risk becoming almost irrelevant.

The guys that called it right were looking at the early vote numbers rather than the polls. What was new in this election was the GOP weaponising the polls to try and dampen the democratic turnout, and some spotted this correctly. If false polls becomes the norm then it is another reason to ignore them.

One other good point on this I've heard is that polling around what are top issues are losing their value, among GOP voters in particular. Their top issues are often ones they cannot say so they'll often just give a stock answer like ' it is inflation'. So political campaigns may concentrate on the wrong thing. Dems called this an election on abortion and small 'd' democracy, and called it right this time.
 
Their voting rules are crazy, still don't have the results. Don't get why they can't have a federal law around the whole voting process.
 
Amazingly there's a slim chance dems might hold the house too. The senate should go to the dems today if Cortez Mastro wins, which is looking more likely than not. And there is still a path to 219 in the house if a few races fall their way today. That would be a disaster for the gop considering what they anticipated would happen.
 
P.D. said:
Their voting rules are crazy, still don't have the results. Don't get why they can't have a federal law around the whole voting process.
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I spent some time playing in the states and one of my teammates ( a yank) spent a weekend trying to explain the whole voting process for goverment and its many jobs. Madness and i still do not get it.
 
Been reading about Ron DeSantis, don't agree with his views but he's young, fairly articulate, academically bright, navy lawyer, popular with latino's in Florida. I think he'd be quite a tough opponent if he runs for 2024.
 
The best think that could happen is Biden doesnt restand on health grounds and the Democrats have a fresh faced energetic candidate like Buttigieg. Biden will struggle against anyone not ancient and senile i think
 
dingdongo said:
Tell me the odds are slim to none.. Right?
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First obstacle is to become the official candidate. I think DeSantis is young enough that he might wait for the next election. Not sure who else there is.

Then he'd have to beat the selected democrat, which will probably be Biden again if he's still able to do it. Don't see many strong options there either.
 
dingdongo said:
Tell me the odds are slim to none.. Right?
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Well, they only voted for Bush Jnr twice and this doofus - I guess there is hope :D

In all seriousness though, the way his "picks" have been rejected in the midterms might mean that with the exception of his die-hard base that folk have had enough of the orange idiot.
 
dingdongo said:
Tell me the odds are slim to none.. Right?
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He won't win again. No chance, but ideally he'll burn the GOP to the ground when they try to dump him. And some that were avid backers are already trying to escape his orbit, it would seem. The problem for the republicans is he still controls a large part of the base and they'll sit out the election if he orders them to. The best-case scenario would be an all-out war between Trump and DeSatan where Trump loses the primary and tells his supporters not to vote in the '24 election, or he runs as an independent candidate. Carnage.
 
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