Goldman Sachs analysts noted four Sun Belt states—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina—where Biden is leading narrowly in the polls that are expected to report results fairly quickly.
If Biden wins any of those states, the analysts said, it would make it very difficult for President Trump to win the 270 electoral votes he needs for a second term, and markets are likely to believe Biden will win the election.
If Trump wins those four states like he did four years ago, on the other hand, the race will hinge on the northern battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—that will likely take days to report their results.
In that case, the election outcome might not be clear until much later.
Goldman also noted that the outcome of the Senate majority could also be relatively clear (though the exact margins will not be) on Tuesday evening depending on the outcome in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina.