Ok, now the FFP part.
I did say
might.
they do meet FFP rules because interest on debt incurred to meet an allowable investment (in this case, building a new stadium) is not counted as an expenditure for FFP purposes. And thank GHod for that, because we're going to have to go down the same road as them if and when we ever get our fingers out and start building.
They have to lose about ?ú40 mil, which they won't from losing CL alone. They'll lose about ?ú25 mil from loss of CL TV money and then it's anyone's guess how much they'll lose based on match day revenue. It is possible that they'll lose ?ú15 mil from that, but I'm guessing more than anything.
Now that would be enough to fudge them (not so much that they'd get thrown out of Europe, but enough for them to rely on having to write a cheque to bail themselves out, without a rich owner, I'm not sure how Arsenal would do this), but they would go into the Europa League. The cash from that should save them...
But wait, there's more...
I hate undisclosed fees, so I'm going based on google (not reliable at all)... Podolski for ?ú10.9 mil....
That puts them in the "fudged" bracket again.
Whenever Arsenal are anywhere near the "fudged" bracket, they sell players.
Fabregas, Clichy, Nasri, etc have all been calculated into last year's profits... So they'd need to sell someone this year.
The big name with little time left on his contract is RVP... Without CL football, he might want to go anyway, but Arsenal will want to keep him...
So they give RVP a new contract (their best case scenario), how much will that cost? With Rosicky's new contract as well as other new contracts... (Walcott's contract will probably be renewed too...) Arsenal's wage bill is going to go up again...
They still need to sell someone, they have their versions of Jenas, Bentley, etc that they can't sell, so who will it be? Their squad doesn't have any depth as it is, so they are going to be significantly weakened if they sell, partly because it means one signing is all they'll be able to afford.
But no means is this the financial apocalypse for them, but Arsenal are not run like Chelsea or City, they just write off losses, each pound that Arsenal loses hurts them directly. Wenger has been saying for ages that the club needs to make about ?ú20 mil a year.
They really can't afford to not finish in the CL twice, but the first time they don't get in the CL, it hurts them so much that it becomes much harder to get into the CL again... They lose the strengthening the CL money would have bought them, they still have to make ?ú20 mil somehow.
I don't think for a minute that failing to meet FFP would mean Arsenal get kicked out of Europe, I am sure Arsenal would rather sell players than fail to meet FFP anyway, but it hastens their decline.
We haven't imploded due to not being in the CL this season, so I'm not saying Arsenal will be mid-table next year if they don't get CL football... But you've got to assume Chelsea won't make as big a mess out of next season, so if we get CL football and Arsenal don't, we will be able to strengthen and they won't.
Plus, fudge Arsenal, come on... Chelsea winning a trophy or Arsenal losing an arm, I know which one is better for our CL hopes next season.