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Would relegation be that bad?

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Makes for some scary reading.

What the article has missed out is that we have assets, the players, which can be sold. Technically we would sell £500M worth of players this summer probably more. West Ham go down and then only have 3
players other clubs would want. Bowen, Summerville, Diouf.
 
Is it actually going to cost more for away fans to watch games in the EFL than it does in the PL . Just had a look at QPR and Watford prices both seem to have a minimum ticket price of £32 , not a lot more I know but quite funny, you get relegated and it will cost away fans more to watch what is arguably an inferior product. :)
 
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Most Championsip clubs don’t sell out. For the teams that have not played in the Prem for decades they will sell out when they play us. But your West Brom, Southampton etc will be desperate for Spurs fans to take 5k+ away tickets.
 
Most Championsip clubs don’t sell out. For the teams that have not played in the Prem for decades they will sell out when they play us. But your West Brom, Southampton etc will be desperate for Spurs fans to take 5k+ away tickets.
They don't sell out but it might be difficult for some to alter their stadium layouts e.g at QPR away fans get the upper tier behind the goal , not sure how many that holds but EFL require 2000 away tickets for away fans and in some areas of the country police might raise security objections to any increase on that figure.
Have to look how Saudi Sportswashing Machine got on in the Championship a few years ago, they would have had large away support.
 
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I went to a Championship game
today. They didn’t have VAR.

The ref missed all manner of brick and gave a number of cards erroneously, not to mention a clear foul that would have ruled out a goal in a proper game and turned this into a victory rather than a draw.

How can you play football without VAR.

It was a ridiculous experience.
Sounds exactly like what happens with VAR…. just without the delays. I’m in!
 
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Makes for some scary reading.
It is a bit but we can sustain relegation based on that. The unknown is the covenants with the banks.

If Levy has negotiated relegation clauses (and Simon Jordan and Danny Murphy scoffed at the notion of it), whatever else he did, he really did an excellent job overall at insulating us as much as possible from this sort of financial shock.
 
What the article has missed out is that we have assets, the players, which can be sold. Technically we would sell £500M worth of players this summer probably more. West Ham go down and then only have 3
players other clubs would want. Bowen, Summerville, Diouf.
We would have a max exodus , eg. players like Solanke, Spence who want to make national squads won't do it playing in the Championship.
 
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Stadium revenue from concerts, NFL etc gives us a massive advantage over Championship teams, can't find turnover of above £40 million for any of the current Championship clubs most of them well below.
Other revenue in our last accounts was £64 million , concerts etc must contribute at least £50 million or more , if we go down and don't come straight back like Saudi Sportswashing Machine then there is a massive problem with VV, Lange etc.

Other revenue contributed £64.0m (2023: £55.4m) and other income contributed £10.4m (2023: £nil). The increase was driven by hosting non-football events, an increase in memberships, the continued growth of our stadium tours, skywalk and conference and events businesses, a pre-season tour as well as matchday catering. In addition the Group launched F1 Drive in the period.
 
We would have a max exodus , eg. players like Solanke, Spence who want to make national squads won't do it playing in the Championship.
Solanke won't do it playing anywhere tbh. Guy is done at the top level. He would be one of the few who would probably get on okay with us in the Championship - more his level. But I think we could aim to find better.

How Spence is in the England squad is beyond me. He is so inconsistent and his attitude stinks.
 
Solanke won't do it playing anywhere tbh. Guy is done at the top level. He would be one of the few who would probably get on okay with us in the Championship - more his level. But I think we could aim to find better.

How Spence is in the England squad is beyond me. He is so inconsistent and his attitude stinks.
Spot on about Spence and assume Solanke has made the recent England squad to make up the numbers for training and won't make the final match squad.

Stay up or go down , our squad needs a massive clear out.
 
It is a bit but we can sustain relegation based on that. The unknown is the covenants with the banks.

If Levy has negotiated relegation clauses (and Simon Jordan and Danny Murphy scoffed at the notion of it), whatever else he did, he really did an excellent job overall at insulating us as much as possible from this sort of financial shock.
Yep. Plan for the worst hope for the best.
 
What the article has missed out is that we have assets, the players, which can be sold. Technically we would sell £500M worth of players this summer probably more. West Ham go down and then only have 3
players other clubs would want. Bowen, Summerville, Diouf.
Of course we could (and undoubtedly would) sell some). Then we have to buy replacements, which will presumably be cheaper in both purchase price and wages but will they be good enough to get us straight back up? (Not that the players who got us relegated would necessarily be good enough for that 🙂).
A year in the championship is survivable and probably wouldn’t have too disastrous a financial impact but 2 years, 3 years…. Not good at all. The article speaks about our long term debt at low rates but isn’t there some that will need to be renegotiated in the not too distant? (I might have that wrong but am sure I saw it somewhere).
 
Of course we could (and undoubtedly would) sell some). Then we have to buy replacements, which will presumably be cheaper in both purchase price and wages but will they be good enough to get us straight back up? (Not that the players who got us relegated would necessarily be good enough for that 🙂).
A year in the championship is survivable and probably wouldn’t have too disastrous a financial impact but 2 years, 3 years…. Not good at all. The article speaks about our long term debt at low rates but isn’t there some that will need to be renegotiated in the not too distant? (I might have that wrong but am sure I saw it somewhere).
This was the latest from summer 2021 after another part refinancing to payback COVID loans and some other more expensively price bank loans.

Many are stretched way out into the future but from reading that it implies one is a 15 year term, so now we are in 2026 has 10 years to go (for reference some are out as far as 2051).

It's the interest rates we have locked in that will save our arse.

As long as there's no fly in the ointment from pesky covenants!??

 
This was the latest from summer 2021 after another part refinancing to payback COVID loans and some other more expensively price bank loans.

Many are stretched way out into the future but from reading that it implies one is a 15 year term, so now we are in 2026 has 10 years to go (for reference some are out as far as 2051).

It's the interest rates we have locked in that will save our arse.

As long as there's no fly in the ointment from pesky covenants!??

If there are covenants (very likely there will be) then they would either have to be covered by a liquidity injection by the owners (could be in the form of loans) or player sales. The transfer debt worries me more than the stadium debt as our transfer debt will be short term and not long term.

Looking at the projected figures in the article, I think the match day and commercial estimates are overstated I would probably chop another £50m off of our revenue.

Only time will tell whether or not we have relegation clauses. If we do then we're in a good position in terms of choosing to sell players and selling on our terms, if we don't (entirely possible) then we'll be selling from a position of weakness.

I wonder whether the CEO and owners will look to protect matchday revenue by offering some sort of discounted season tickets where the price would be honoured for the first season or two back in the PL if we bounce back up immediately? That could be a sensible move IMO.
 
If there are covenants (very likely there will be) then they would either have to be covered by a liquidity injection by the owners (could be in the form of loans) or player sales. The transfer debt worries me more than the stadium debt as our transfer debt will be short term and not long term.

Looking at the projected figures in the article, I think the match day and commercial estimates are overstated I would probably chop another £50m off of our revenue.

Only time will tell whether or not we have relegation clauses. If we do then we're in a good position in terms of choosing to sell players and selling on our terms, if we don't (entirely possible) then we'll be selling from a position of weakness.

I wonder whether the CEO and owners will look to protect matchday revenue by offering some sort of discounted season tickets where the price would be honoured for the first season or two back in the PL if we bounce back up immediately? That could be a sensible move IMO.
Indeed. The transfer debt has built up over the years (not helped by the the lack of a flip side ie selling), and helped burn thru our cash pile.

What would be your guess at a reasonable/acceptable discount on a championship ST .....40%?
 
Solanke won't do it playing anywhere tbh. Guy is done at the top level. He would be one of the few who would probably get on okay with us in the Championship - more his level. But I think we could aim to find better.

How Spence is in the England squad is beyond me. He is so inconsistent and his attitude stinks.

I agree!
Always said we paid 15-20 over for Solanke.
As for Spence, it's bizarre. TAA cannot get a look in. Tuchel seems like a bit of a tosskkkker.
 
If there are covenants (very likely there will be) then they would either have to be covered by a liquidity injection by the owners (could be in the form of loans) or player sales. The transfer debt worries me more than the stadium debt as our transfer debt will be short term and not long term.

Looking at the projected figures in the article, I think the match day and commercial estimates are overstated I would probably chop another £50m off of our revenue.

Only time will tell whether or not we have relegation clauses. If we do then we're in a good position in terms of choosing to sell players and selling on our terms, if we don't (entirely possible) then we'll be selling from a position of weakness.

I wonder whether the CEO and owners will look to protect matchday revenue by offering some sort of discounted season tickets where the price would be honoured for the first season or two back in the PL if we bounce back up immediately? That could be a sensible move IMO.

I believe there are covenants.
I agree, the short-terms transfer debt will have to be taken care of however I think we can sell enough to cover albeit they will be 'distressed sales' as everyone will know our situation. Remember when we nearly got Grealish in such a situation only for Levy to get too clever and blow the entire thing (I mean, I know you do we have discussed many times)...
I wholly agree with the ST idea.
I think it will be imperative that we have a new DoF and a new CEO/replacement for VV. I'd personally hope the Lewis family bail too, albeit that does put us in the space of 'be careful what you wish for'...
 
- Cheaper and more plentiful tickets
- Less subscriptions to pay to legitimately watch games on tv
- Drop in value of club would stir interest of potential buyers, so more chance that Connie and Fredo will bugger off
- Chance for a deep structural clean and refresh - it seemed to do Villa good long term
- New brochure of exotic away trips

I could get on board with this i think

Any more upsides?
There isn't a precedent for a club with our financial liabilities being relegated. We have a billion £ stadium which carries eyewatering maintenance costs and our revenue would be slashed. The FL PSR is harsher than the PL's and we would find it extremely difficult to comply. They were never written to accomodate a club with our infrastructure and financial structure. There's a good finance podcast that got into the impacts of us being relegated and actually one of the big impacts is on the football league itself, they felt they would really struggle to even administer a club like us in the championship.
 
I went to a Championship game
today. They didn’t have VAR.

The ref missed all manner of brick and gave a number of cards erroneously, not to mention a clear foul that would have ruled out a goal in a proper game and turned this into a victory rather than a draw.

How can you play football without VAR.

It was a ridiculous experience.
We managed for 100+ years.....
 
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