I didn't say it would take place. I'm saying that we are sat here in Europe crying about America not being prepared to provide security guarantees and intervene in a way you would like. And we are no longer capable of defending ourselves. Basically.
Probably thought they'd get it done in 3 years though?
Depends. If you took away the western military support Kyiv would likely have fallen within months if not weeks. When the US briefly halted military aid not so long ago a whole section of the Ukrainian front collapsed and the Russians gained hundreds of miles in the space of a week. I don't think people realise the rate at which munitions and ammunition are being expended out there. It is only the combined effort of the US and allies keeping Ukraine in the fight at huge economic cost which our government are not being honest about.
Deploying forces into Ukraine isn't the only option available. Harsher sanctions and give Ukraine the military aid they need. If they had got all the equipment they needed at the start instead of being drip fed this would be over already. Give them tomahawk and tarsus missiles and that'll make a big dent in Russian infrastructure that is supporting the war effort.
Russia isn't using its airpower though. It isn't actually committing all of its military to this conflict. It has never committed its most modern hardware or provided serious air support to its forces. The reason support for Ukraine has been drip fed is to prevent escalation. As much as we are funding and supporting Ukraine, so Iran, China and North Korea are supporting Russia. The first Russian launched missile made entirely with chinese components was found recently by the Ukrainians. China is on record as stating they cannot afford Russia to lose this war. So the danger is you may think "oh we will do this and it will be over". Will it be over or will it simply poke the bear enough for China to actively join the conflict on the ground?
They are using airpower to bomb the Ukraine frontline. They're not going beyond that because it's ineffective and they've lost almost 400 aircraft according to estimates (some going if they aren't using airpower). The reason they don't commit their most modern hardware is they don't have the numbers. There's only about 20 operational SU-57s.
China likely views the war as one it really can't afford Russia to lose. If Russia loses, Putin's grip losens and the liklihood of a pro-democracy, pro-west takeover occurring in Russia. That would leave China isolated geopolitically and with what it would view as a major threat all along its borders.
What is your endgame? Retreat to Berlin and pretend its 1988 again and that half the continent haven't had 35 years of liberal democracies?
You really think that Putin going means that there will be a pro-democracy takerover happening?? It'll just be another figure exactly like Putin that is there in the background now. Russia can't defeat Ukraine, they're no threat to China.
This is an excellent yet chilling book on the scenario of a modern nuclear war that accidentally escalates in about an hour to end human civilisation and it features the scenario where Russia's EKS/Tundra early warning system mistakenly interprets a US missile attack fired across its airspace (but not intending to attack Russia) and initiates the launch of 1,000 warheads against NATO targets in the US and Europe:
