Ange in or out?

[SteveAWOL]

The absence of control when we are ahead has dogged us throughout Ange's time. And I think we are just poor as a defensive unit. Ball watching and a general failure to pick up runners has led to great chances for our opponents. My son has been highlighting for me how we leave open the players at the far post, and today was another example. You add in the high line and the advanced full backs and against any opponent, we are giving up gilt edged chances. Chances that are usually better than those that we have. Even today, against a team that is leading the "worst of all time" table, we could have been behind.

In the end, I can only view these last two years as demonstrating that Ange's style of play is ill suited to the Premier League. IMHO, it requires unachievable perfection to dominate and score while not conceding. Can it work? Well in a league where he coaches a side that is forever a winner and streets ahead of most opponents, I can see it working. But in the Premier League, where all bar the promoted teams are well financed and staffed, well I think we can see the result.

Those first 10 games just appear to have been the anomaly here where we got the breaks and the luck, had teams still trying to work us out, and built up a head of steam. Thereafter, the flaws have been exposed and the injuries that accompany his demands have led to our current position. The goal difference is a weird anomaly too, but who among us can honestly say that our performances have inspired confidence? No progression in an upward direction whatever our personnel must justify a change, whatever happens in the Europa.

It’s basically feast or famine playing KamikAngeball, depending upon whether our opponents are defensively competent and have an attack clinical enough to capitalise upon the gilt edged chances we invariably gift opponents.

Against top half teams this season we’ve picked up fewer points than everyone bar Southampton and Leicester, which emphasises how reckless this style of football is against teams which have elite players.



Much like how Celtic discovered when they attempted to play AngeBall in the Champions Leage.

 

[tommysvr]

Yes, as I mentioned, before the Liverpool 6-3 loss we were top four for goals scored, goals conceded and goal difference. Iirc, we were top two or three in a couple of them. But we were already something like ten points adrift, even when our defence was one of the best.

It could be bad luck or something else. Flat track bullies, although we've had some bad defeats. Possibly there are too many late goals with no consequence (e.g. against Liverpool).

I always look at these numbers mid-season. The GD in particular often shows outliers. That is usually a sign of a club too low or too high in the table and it tends to correct by the end of the season. It's got worse for us.

I agree that this has been a freak season for a number of reasons. Three months of injuries killed us at the busiest period of the year and it's been a struggle. Forest are not and will never be again a top 3 team.

There have been some terrible performances and results in there. The three standout losses are Ipswich (H), Everton (A), Leicester (H). Awful performances and results to match. Can probably add Brighton (A) where we should never have thrown away that 2-0 lead.

But the idea that we can't win close games under Ange is demonstrably false. It's a very even split; we've won 12 matches by a margin of 2 goals or less. 10 games by 3 goals or more.

 

[billyiddo]

Good of you to put the line of difference between 2 and 3+ goal margins rather between 1 and 2+ like most people would.

I'm counting one 1 goal margin PL win from the above? Does that encompass his whole time here? That's not good considering how many games we're losing and shows where the problems are.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

It’s basically feast or famine playing KamikAngeball, depending upon whether our opponents are defensively competent and have an attack clinical enough to capitalise upon the gilt edged chances we invariably gift opponents.

Against top half teams this season we’ve picked up fewer points than everyone bar Southampton and Leicester, which emphasises how reckless this style of football is against teams which have elite players.

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Much like how Celtic discovered when they attempted to play AngeBall in the Champions Leage.

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I think this is a really good summary of Angeball. Executive summary:
- Mostly batter anyone you're significantly better than.
- Mostly lose to anyone decent.
First bullet helps in the general confusion surrounding how ineffective/effective the system is as it pads the stats leading to people going "but...but....we are winning the goal difference"

 

[tommysvr]

Good of you to put the line of difference between 2 and 3+ goal margins rather between 1 and 2+ like most people would.

I'm counting one 1 goal margin PL win from the above? Does that encompass his whole time here? That's not good considering how many games we're losing and shows where the problems are.

Those screenshots are just this season. Across both seasons we’ve won 10 matches by exactly 1 goal in the Premier League: https://thfcdb.com/people/ange-post...marginComparison==&result=W&selectedView=list

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

I agree that this has been a freak season for a number of reasons. Three months of injuries killed us at the busiest period of the year and it's been a struggle. Forest are not and will never be again a top 3 team.

There have been some terrible performances and results in there. The three standout losses are Ipswich (H), Everton (A), Leicester (H). Awful performances and results to match. Can probably add Brighton (A) where we should never have thrown away that 2-0 lead.

But the idea that we can't win close games under Ange is demonstrably false. It's a very even split; we've won 12 matches by a margin of 2 goals or less. 10 games by 3 goals or more.

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I think the difference is in the manner of winning tight games. In that, the games under Ange are very rarely "tight" in fact it's a game of chicken in terms of creating chances and gifting chances and to see whose finishing is better on the day. Of course, that can still lead to narrow scorelines but we rarely contain the other team and limit chances and so no, we do not demonstrate the ability to win tight games as we don't demonstrate the ability to make a game tight in the first place.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Isn’t that their only argument? You have got to be on a wind up surely?

I'm not on a wind-up. I don't think this is their only argument, but happy for you to correct me by showing me that most of those who protest for ENIC/Levy to leave say "it's our Ghod-given right to win a trophy" every year...

 

[veryoldspur]

I'm torn about giving another season, based on the goals record. Is there something freaky about this season or is it related to Ange's strategy.

We are currently second for goals scored, 6th on GD, and mid-table on goals conceded despite all the injuries. Before the Liverpool game we were top four on all three although already many points behind the others. Why are we getting less points than others?

• Our current GD is +13, while Forest are +14. They have 20 points more than us.
• We have scored 58 and conceded 45. Villa are 46-46. They've scored 12 goals less than us and conceded one more, but have 14 more points
• City are 57-40, one less goals scored and only five less conceded. Yet they have 14 points more than us.
• Brighton are 49-47. Nine goals less scored and two more conceded but ten points ahead of us.

None of that really means anything. The fact is we don't defend well, and that's down to poor tactics and poor defensive coaching. Ange doesn't appear to be concerned about defending, and that's why we are sat near the bottom of the table.

 

[DubSpur]

I agree that this has been a freak season for a number of reasons. Three months of injuries killed us at the busiest period of the year and it's been a struggle. Forest are not and will never be again a top 3 team.

There have been some terrible performances and results in there. The three standout losses are Ipswich (H), Everton (A), Leicester (H). Awful performances and results to match. Can probably add Brighton (A) where we should never have thrown away that 2-0 lead.

But the idea that we can't win close games under Ange is demonstrably false. It's a very even split; we've won 12 matches by a margin of 2 goals or less. 10 games by 3 goals or more.

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That's fine, but how many close games have we lost? I'd bet it's more than we've won.

 

[Baleforce]

None of that really means anything. The fact is we don't defend well, and that's down to poor tactics and poor defensive coaching. Ange doesn't appear to be concerned about defending, and that's why we are sat near the bottom of the table.

It really is that simple, how many times do we need to concede chances to unmarked players at the far post before we start addressing it.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

It really is that simple, how many times do we need to concede chances to unmarked players at the far post before we start addressing it.

I gave Ange the benefit of the doubt last season. I was against his appointment but he had to be given the benefit. You learn and adapt. It's a new club, new league, new level. Can he make the step up and changes to keep improving. First game of the season: Jamie Vardy, one of the league's foremost finishers of the last decade, left unmarked in the box. 2 points dropped. Then Saudi Sportswashing Machine away, get back to 1-1 and then just push up with a flat line and let one straight ball split us in two for their winner. 1 point dropped. Those early games showed me that literally nothing had been learned from last season and coupled with multiple Ange comments saying that he isn't interested in working on that stuff made me switch off on him completely. The injuries have probably contributed to how g*d damn awful this season has been, but the fundamentals of failure are ingrained on the training ground.

 

[Grays_1890]

I find it strange how people forget how awful we were under Poch for the last year of his tenure, and only remember everything prior to that. He didn't do particularly well at PSG considering the players they had, and he was a complete failure at Chelsea. I look back with affection, but I wouldn't want him back

HE was actually making Chelsea look like a very decent side

 

[monkeybarry]

True but isn't that jts's point?

We are scoring plenty. We aren't conceding anything unusual in terms of numbers so this idea we can't defend for toffee is questionable. Why have the results not come?

I wouldn't give him another season personally but I haven't seen an explanation in all the Ange-bashing that explains why we are in such a different position to what our GD would normally suggest .... especially as we haven't regularly thumped teams to boost the GS side of things.

the main complaint seems to be that he doesn't coach defence and that our full backs push up and in and leave massive gaps - which may be true but is no worse them Emery and Nuno are achieving and they are top 5.

It sums up Ange - the difference between his level and the top level.

One week we'll hand out a battering
The next week we'll get beaten

His tactics rely on overloading the opposition and the opposition not being of the level of take a high proportion of their chances - this works when you are the best team in mid level leagues.
It doesn't work at the top - nor should it

 

[DeanoAustin]

Those screenshots are just this season. Across both seasons we’ve won 10 matches by exactly 1 goal in the Premier League: https://thfcdb.com/people/ange-postecoglou/matches?competition[0]=2&margin=1&marginComparison==&result=W&selectedView=list

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Only one of those is this season and 4 came during the good run at the start of last.

@SteveAWOL’s post above paints a very very stark picture of where we are.

 

[veryoldspur]

HE was actually making Chelsea look like a very decent side

Why did they sack him then?

 

[Yiddo]

He been sacked yet?

 

[Grays_1890]

Why did they sack him then?

Because they are an absolute shambles of a mess. He lost 1 of their last 20 games or something, they were motoring in the right direction

 

[Gutter Boy]

Why did they sack him then?

He's also speaks back, which is a no no for their managers under these owners.

 

[Raziel]

It sums up Ange - the difference between his level and the top level.

One week we'll hand out a battering
The next week we'll get beaten

His tactics rely on overloading the opposition and the opposition not being of the level of take a high proportion of their chances - this works when you are the best team in mid level leagues.
It doesn't work at the top - nor should it

Bingo, this is the big item and in hindsight it's logical

- At slightly lower levels, teams/players aren't as clinical, at the very top level, high quality chances are punished.
- Two other issues for me, system isn't designed to get best out of skill difference between us and lower level opposition (i.e. against a Leicester, Ipswich, etc. you don't need a magic system, you have better players, the system should allow those better players to make the difference, not rely on crazy intensity or outrun tactics). Second is the system doesn't know how to defend, 2nd half of season there have been some concessions (FB's staying back, 2 more defensive players in middle, not as aggressive a press), but being less attacking doesn't automatically mean you are a better defensive team, it's still too easy to play against us.

Results say the same thing time and time again, Ange isn't the answer

 

[thfcsteff]

Why did they sack him then?

He clashed with part of the ownership core and would not back down/shut up/be a puppet. He did some great work there. If he'd stayed they'd have absolutely pushed for the title this season. We should be grateful!