Welcome Ange: To Dare is to Didgeridoo

[Raziel]

Out of interest how does this current situation differ from Poch's at the same stage?
I'm curious to know if your general outlook on how you judge where Spurs are (and how the manager is doing) has changed, because i'm pretty sure IIRC that you were very harsh on Poch at this same stage (i.e. after the first few games of Poch's second season).


Genuinely curious here

This will derail .. but here goes .. (and it's been done to death)

I didn't expect Poch to win the league at any point, he should have given the opportunity that presented itself but it was never an "expectation". I wouldn't even have put the "he had to win a cup in this season" on him, because it was clear the club's priorities were CL spots at the time. My issue with Poch was/is his failure to covert a first 11 (that by design or luck) was a level above anything Spurs has had in decades, within the opportunities that presented itself, in that Leicester season, in that CL final, in the numerous cup semi's (not all, but at least 1). That wasn't specifically a 2nd season criticism

Lloris, Rose, Jan, Toby, Walker, Dembele, Eriksen, Dele, Son, Kane in their primes is something Ange doesn't have (three of those fudging players are still playing at an elite level today), people will talk about windows/investments, reality? Poch got beaten by Claudio Ranieri's Leicester, not some City/Pool/Chelsea side.

Ange's criticisms come down to -> I don't think this "high risk" system will pay off at this level (it has worked elsewhere), truth is, none of us know, until he is given time and players that fit the system at the right quality (don't think we are there yet, don't think anyone does)

Poch criticisms and level limitations haven't changed since he left Spurs, even when given vastly greater resources, in my opinion .. proven true

Regardless of my opinion of Poch, it's not the same Spurs today, BMJ -> Ramos -> Harry -> AVB -> Poch was a relatively linear path (as close as it gets in football. Post Poch, the club lost it's way, it pivoted to a short term view that we didn't have the cash to bankroll, dealt with Covid and served up pretty bricky viewing (regardless of results or not), all of that is on the club/ownership.

Hence my opinion on Ange is different, some pretty drastic decisions have been made, re club structure, who runs football, recruitment, squad turnover with pretty good investment as well. To expect those things to pay off in not even 18 months is a little unrealistic, so my patience/expectation is tempered, and built on by the fact that in the interim, the football is fun to watch and we try not only to win, but to dominate sides in the process.

Again, bricky sample size but Ange's first 3 games statistically are an improvement on last season (stats won't matter if not converted to wins), Poch's team (IIRC, was a while ago now) statistically peaked about 2 years in.

I for the first time feel the club is willing to both back and give Ange time (too many future players to have a this year top 4 or bust approach), the question is more of a fan thing, which was my point earlier, unrealistic expectations -> anger -> changes environment around club -> does not help players or manager or our success in long run .. people will do whatever they want to and I guess that's their right to do so?

 

[Jurgen the German]

The fans will have a huge say on what happens imo
The club IMO will stick with him if the noise doesn’t get bad

The noise wasn’t bad when Poch was sacked. Don’t get me wrong the fans can sack a manager if they voice their discontent and vote with their feet and stop going, but it’s the club that ultimately decide who stays and who goes in terms of managers.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

The noise wasn’t bad when Poch was sacked. Don’t get me wrong the fans can sack a manager if they voice their discontent and vote with their feet and stop going, but it’s the club that ultimately decide who stays and who goes in terms of managers.

There was no noise in the ground around sacking Poch
Didn’t hear much discontent at all
There was stuff online of course

I was there with the jeering for Nuno. That was grim

 

[DeanoAustin]

There was no noise in the ground around sacking Poch
Didn’t hear much discontent at all
There was stuff online of course

I was there with the jeering for Nuno. That was grim

The Nuno stuff was toxic and I still maintain he was just a lightning rod for fan frustration with the previous 3 years at the club. The stories at the time said Levy wanted to give him more time.

I really believe that Levy will stick with Ange as long as he's competing somewhere near the European spots and there isn't a falling out. You could see in the fan forum last year that Levy really appreciates dealing with someone he can trust and Ange really seems like a man of his word and very straightforward compared to, say, Jose and Conte.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

The Nuno stuff was toxic and I still maintain he was just a lightning rod for fan frustration with the previous 3 years at the club. The stories at the time said Levy wanted to give him more time.

I really believe that Levy will stick with Ange as long as he's competing somewhere near the European spots and there isn't a falling out. You could see in the fan forum last year that Levy really appreciates dealing with someone he can trust and Ange really seems like a man of his word and very straightforward compared to, say, Jose and Conte.

And Ange has a plan

 

[glasgowspur]

This will derail .. but here goes .. (and it's been done to death)

I didn't expect Poch to win the league at any point, he should have given the opportunity that presented itself but it was never an "expectation". I wouldn't even have put the "he had to win a cup in this season" on him, because it was clear the club's priorities were CL spots at the time. My issue with Poch was/is his failure to covert a first 11 (that by design or luck) was a level above anything Spurs has had in decades, within the opportunities that presented itself, in that Leicester season, in that CL final, in the numerous cup semi's (not all, but at least 1). That wasn't specifically a 2nd season criticism

Lloris, Rose, Jan, Toby, Walker, Dembele, Eriksen, Dele, Son, Kane in their primes is something Ange doesn't have (three of those fudging players are still playing at an elite level today), people will talk about windows/investments, reality? Poch got beaten by Claudio Ranieri's Leicester, not some City/Pool/Chelsea side.

Ange's criticisms come down to -> I don't think this "high risk" system will pay off at this level (it has worked elsewhere), truth is, none of us know, until he is given time and players that fit the system at the right quality (don't think we are there yet, don't think anyone does)

Poch criticisms and level limitations haven't changed since he left Spurs, even when given vastly greater resources, in my opinion .. proven true

Regardless of my opinion of Poch, it's not the same Spurs today, BMJ -> Ramos -> Harry -> AVB -> Poch was a relatively linear path (as close as it gets in football. Post Poch, the club lost it's way, it pivoted to a short term view that we didn't have the cash to bankroll, dealt with Covid and served up pretty bricky viewing (regardless of results or not), all of that is on the club/ownership.

Hence my opinion on Ange is different, some pretty drastic decisions have been made, re club structure, who runs football, recruitment, squad turnover with pretty good investment as well. To expect those things to pay off in not even 18 months is a little unrealistic, so my patience/expectation is tempered, and built on by the fact that in the interim, the football is fun to watch and we try not only to win, but to dominate sides in the process.

Again, bricky sample size but Ange's first 3 games statistically are an improvement on last season (stats won't matter if not converted to wins), Poch's team (IIRC, was a while ago now) statistically peaked about 2 years in.

I for the first time feel the club is willing to both back and give Ange time (too many future players to have a this year top 4 or bust approach), the question is more of a fan thing, which was my point earlier, unrealistic expectations -> anger -> changes environment around club -> does not help players or manager or our success in long run .. people will do whatever they want to and I guess that's their right to do so?

I loved Poch, still do, but I can appreciate that a lot of your critique is valid, except for the Leicester season. That season did get to a point where everything, absolutely everything was going for them.
They had momentum, everyone was pulling for them and it got to the point where it was being talked about as a fairytale.
That was an express train we were never going to stop and tbh I don’t believe we would have been allowed to stop it. The narrative was written,we were in the way and were nothing more than a foot note.

 

[DeanoAustin]

I've seen a couple of references to the stats I've quoted over the last couple of days and how "his wins have been removed". If anyone believes that, go back and read what I've posted.


The reason for excluding the first 10 games is that there is a phenomenon called "regression to mean" which, it can be justifiably argued, could apply to Ange regarding the fast start last year. It could be argued that he caught people by surprise, everything went in our favour but what is undeniable is that that 10 game run was a complete outlier compared to the 32 games that followed. It's justifiable to examine his record omitting those 10 games to make an argument but, wherever I've done that, I've been very explicit about it.

I've also made omissions in Ange's favour (side by side with the full picture too). I've omitted games where he didn't have his best CB partnership to provide evidence that our defence isn't much better with Romero and Van De Ven than without. I've omitted games where we haven't had our first choice back 4 - that's shown a similar picture. I've even gone as far as omitting the Chelsea game from those subsets because it was a freak for so many reasons despite the fact it would have suited my argument to leave it in.

So if anyone thinks I'm using stats selectively or just to spin, that doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

 

[Baleforce]

And Ange has a plan

Nuno had a plan, as did Jose, as did Conte.

Every manager does. Doesn't mean they can make it work.

I agree we do need to give a manager time, but it has to be the right manager, maybe it is Ange, but if I was Levy doubling down, it would be a manager with a stronger palmares.

Nuno still has our best ever perfect season* start attempt, and I think the best ever in the PL.

*38 1-0 wins.

 

[Bullet]

Ooooooooooh Baleforce, get you!


palmarès
[palmaʀɛs IPA Pronunciation Guide]
masculine noun
1. [de personne] record ⧫ record of achievements

 

[Raziel]

I've seen a couple of references to the stats I've quoted over the last couple of days and how "his wins have been removed". If anyone believes that, go back and read what I've posted.


The reason for excluding the first 10 games is that there is a phenomenon called "regression to mean" which, it can be justifiably argued, could apply to Ange regarding the fast start last year. It could be argued that he caught people by surprise, everything went in our favour but what is undeniable is that that 10 game run was a complete outlier compared to the 32 games that followed. It's justifiable to examine his record omitting those 10 games to make an argument but, wherever I've done that, I've been very explicit about it.

I've also made omissions in Ange's favour (side by side with the full picture too). I've omitted games where he didn't have his best CB partnership to provide evidence that our defence isn't much better with Romero and Van De Ven than without. I've omitted games where we haven't had our first choice back 4 - that's shown a similar picture. I've even gone as far as omitting the Chelsea game from those subsets because it was a freak for so many reasons despite the fact it would have suited my argument to leave it in.

So if anyone thinks I'm using stats selectively or just to spin, that doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

You cannot pull out 26% of data in already small (single season) data set, you didn't pull outliers (because that would be top and bottom of set, you just pulled the top).

I'd also recommend you rerun the defense numbers with all 4 back line (including Udogie & Porro) and you will find there is a valid statistical difference.

Regression to mean is a thing, but again sample size, understanding impact of injuries & form, home games vs. away for top opponents, lots of variables including there is a known behavior in system/change implementation where there is initial success (the easy part of system is taken on board), then a correction/struggle phase where results drop then improvements come again.

I don't think the data (with context) shows a side that peaked in first 10 games of last season, see the below data for the first 3 games (and yes, it's flimflam because it's 3 games)

 

[Raziel]

Nuno had a plan, as did Jose, as did Conte.

Every manager does. Doesn't mean they can make it work.

I agree we do need to give a manager time, but it has to be the right manager, maybe it is Ange, but if I was Levy doubling down, it would be a manager with a stronger palmares.

Nuno still has our best ever perfect season* start attempt, and I think the best ever in the PL.

*38 1-0 wins.

How would you ever know?

And if you don't double down on a manager you are pretty much ensuring they aren't going to be successful

 

[Bullet]

If you accidentally/dare to stray onto the stupid side of Twitter "for you" there are a bunch* of noisy empty vessels shouting that Ange should go and that Levy should go and that we've been lied to and strung along and Levy is taking all the money out of the club and we're all gonna die when the sky falls down on us. The main other thing they seem to have in common is that they are not intelligent.
*Perhaps 30 (complete guess) accounts, making loads of noise.

There are also a bunch of accounts trying to explain why they should be patient and are wrong

Meanwhile there are hundreds / thousands of accounts not making any noise on Twitter because they have better things to do, they are reserving judgement, they don't get attention because they aren't being a complete dingdong.

So a lot of Twitter bile is whipped up by a few negative nasties and seems like something threatening, when hopefully the vast, vast majority can see above that.

 

[parklane1]

If you accidentally/dare to stray onto the stupid side of Twitter "for you" there are a bunch* of noisy empty vessels shouting that Ange should go and that Levy should go and that we've been lied to and strung along and Levy is taking all the money out of the club and we're all gonna die when the sky falls down on us. The main other thing they seem to have in common is that they are not intelligent.
*Perhaps 30 (complete guess) accounts, making loads of noise.

There are also a bunch of accounts trying to explain why they should be patient and are wrong

Meanwhile there are hundreds / thousands of accounts not making any noise on Twitter because they have better things to do, they are reserving judgement, they don't get attention because they aren't being a complete dingdong.

So a lot of Twitter bile is whipped up by a few negative nasties and seems like something threatening, when hopefully the vast, vast majority can see above that.

T watter is full of prats and they all share one brain cell.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

I've seen a couple of references to the stats I've quoted over the last couple of days and how "his wins have been removed". If anyone believes that, go back and read what I've posted.


The reason for excluding the first 10 games is that there is a phenomenon called "regression to mean" which, it can be justifiably argued, could apply to Ange regarding the fast start last year. It could be argued that he caught people by surprise, everything went in our favour but what is undeniable is that that 10 game run was a complete outlier compared to the 32 games that followed. It's justifiable to examine his record omitting those 10 games to make an argument but, wherever I've done that, I've been very explicit about it.

I've also made omissions in Ange's favour (side by side with the full picture too). I've omitted games where he didn't have his best CB partnership to provide evidence that our defence isn't much better with Romero and Van De Ven than without. I've omitted games where we haven't had our first choice back 4 - that's shown a similar picture. I've even gone as far as omitting the Chelsea game from those subsets because it was a freak for so many reasons despite the fact it would have suited my argument to leave it in.

So if anyone thinks I'm using stats selectively or just to spin, that doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

What would be interesting would be to apply his historical season 2 improvements onto last years data
The issue of course is a game can be won by one goal to swing points

 

[DeanoAustin]

You cannot pull out 26% of data in already small (single season) data set, you didn't pull outliers (because that would be top and bottom of set, you just pulled the top).

I'd also recommend you rerun the defense numbers with all 4 back line (including Udogie & Porro) and you will find there is a valid statistical difference.

Regression to mean is a thing, but again sample size, understanding impact of injuries & form, home games vs. away for top opponents, lots of variables including there is a known behavior in system/change implementation where there is initial success (the easy part of system is taken on board), then a correction/struggle phase where results drop then improvements come again.

I don't think the data (with context) shows a side that peaked in first 10 games of last season, see the below data for the first 3 games (and yes, it's flimflam because it's 3 games)

View attachment 17611

View attachment 17612

View attachment 17613

View attachment 17614

I think it’s valid, for the sake of argument, to pull out the first 10 games. There is a consistency to the results from November last year. The first 10 games are an outlier because there is no other sequence of 10 games that yielded that many points or near it and it could be argued that it was a combination of new manager bounce and sides being caught by surprise.

A selection of 32 consecutive league games, albeit across two seasons, is statistically significant.

Did the analysis with the first choice back 4 if you have a look back. Doesn’t make nearly as much difference as you’d think which all points to a defensively flawed system. It’s also reaching if you have to say “well, we’ll be fine as long as we have our goalkeeper and first choice back 4”. We’d need Woolwich level luck with injuries and suspensions.

 

[Baleforce]

How would you ever know?

And if you don't double down on a manager you are pretty much ensuring they aren't going to be successful

Doubling down on the wrong one ensures that too.

 

[Baleforce]

I think it’s valid, for the sake of argument to pull out the first 10 games. There is a consistency to the results from November last year. The first 10 games are an outlier because there is no other sequence of 10 games that yielded that many points or near it and it could be argued that it was a combination of new manager bounce and sides being caught by surprise.

A selection of 32 consecutive league games, albeit across two seasons, is statistically significant.

Did the analysis with the first choice back 4 if you have a look back. Doesn’t make nearly as much difference as you’d think which all points to a defensively flawed system. It’s also reaching if you have to say “well, we’ll be fine as long as we have our goalkeeper and first choice back 4”. We’d need Woolwich level luck with injuries and suspensions.

We still got good results with Davies and Royal in the team last season, VDV and Romero coming back didn’t fix the issues as most hoped they would.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

We still got good results with Davies and Royal in the team last season, VDV and Romero coming back didn’t fix the issues as most hoped they would.

We also had 3 HUGE first team players away in international tournaments
That had a massive toll on them and it’s been really quickly forgotten
Son was also carrying an injury before hand and Biss had Malaria FFS

 

[Bedfordspurs]

I think it’s valid, for the sake of argument, to pull out the first 10 games. There is a consistency to the results from November last year. The first 10 games are an outlier because there is no other sequence of 10 games that yielded that many points or near it and it could be argued that it was a combination of new manager bounce and sides being caught by surprise.

A selection of 32 consecutive league games, albeit across two seasons, is statistically significant.

Did the analysis with the first choice back 4 if you have a look back. Doesn’t make nearly as much difference as you’d think which all points to a defensively flawed system. It’s also reaching if you have to say “well, we’ll be fine as long as we have our goalkeeper and first choice back 4”. We’d need Woolwich level luck with injuries and suspensions.

Could also be argued that at that point Ange had a fit first 11 who could play his football
After that period he never did
It’s why I believe the squad additions now have been massively key
Having full back cover who can genuine invert and play midfield (read the Milan fans thoughts on Royal)
CB option that Ange will play in Drago
An actual guy who has played across his whole adult career in Big Dom
2 new midfielders who can pass and move without waving their hands at others and stay fit (so far)
A dribble winger that some people think we have needed for years and the experience of Werner

That’s replacing Dier, Royal, Skipp, Hojberg , Lo Celso and Gil (plus others of course) who all played last year and just aren’t suited to a possession side if we’re honest

 

[Raziel]

Could also be argued that at that point Ange had a fit first 11 who could play his football
After that period he never did
It’s why I believe the squad additions now have been massively key
Having full back cover who can genuine invert and play midfield (read the Milan fans thoughts on Royal)
CB option that Ange will play in Drago
An actual guy who has played across his whole adult career in Big Dom
2 new midfielders who can pass and move without waving their hands at others and stay fit (so far)
A dribble winger that some people think we have needed for years and the experience of Werner

That’s replacing Dier, Royal, Skipp, Hojberg , Lo Celso and Gil (plus others of course) who all played last year and just aren’t suited to a possession side if we’re honest

That's the interesting perspective on the window, lots of commentary of did we improve?

Royal at FB being replaced by Spence
Royal/Davies at CB being replaced by Dragusin
Skipp replaced by Gray
GLC replaced by Bergvall
Solomon replaced by Wilson
No backup CF being replaced by Solanke, Richi becoming the backup CF

The gaps would be -> experience of PEH not replaced, GLC more proven than Bergvall (albeit barely played)

Hard to say the squad hasn't improved, even minus the refresh and value of younger legs in this system.