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Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

Do you want Tim Sherwood to stay as manager?

  • Total voters
    125
  • Poll closed .
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Interesting article in the Telegraph today about Townsend. Especially the bit where he credits TS for his improvement, loans and overall development. He concludes by saying how much he hopes he can now pay TS back for the time and effort he put in to his development. Top lad.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

braineclipse said:
Just about all people have a poor intuitive understanding of statistics. Intelligence might help, but on its own isn't enough to make a real difference. Even education isn't great as experts in various fields have been shown to make rather basic errors when faced with fairly simple statistical problems/thinking tasks at a frequency that's actually a bit scary.

What helps is specific training along with mental training in taking relevant factors into account before making a decision.

I certainly think there's a tendency to reject stuff like this without understanding it. Do you disagree? Do you feel you have a good grasp of statistics and the PDO concept and that it doesn't work?
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I can highly recommend this book as an easy to understand introduction to the subject which uses really good real life examples.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/1846681111/ref=pd_aw_sbs_1?pi=SY115
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Gazza Dazzla said:
Tim's win rate is something like 80% currently, so there is no way it will remain that high no, is this what some are arguing against?
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Sort of. The argument is over whether our results are better than our performances suggest they should be (stats say they are) and whether under AVB they were worse than the stats say they should have been (again, stats say they were).

That is partly backed up by the correct assertion you've made, that there's no way we can keep up this win rate. That our team + our manager does not equal a PL 80% win rate.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

milo said:
I can highly recommend this book as an easy to understand introduction to the subject which uses really good real life examples.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/1846681111/ref=pd_aw_sbs_1?pi=SY115
Click to expand...

I don't know the book but I assume its title is based on one of my favourite explanations for why people see patterns that aren't there. I've heard Dilnot speak/read his interviews for a number of programs/papers and he's always interesting.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

braineclipse said:
Just about all people have a poor intuitive understanding of statistics. Intelligence might help, but on its own isn't enough to make a real difference. Even education isn't great as experts in various fields have been shown to make rather basic errors when faced with fairly simple statistical problems/thinking tasks at a frequency that's actually a bit scary.

What helps is specific training along with mental training in taking relevant factors into account before making a decision.

I certainly think there's a tendency to reject stuff like this without understanding it. Do you disagree? Do you feel you have a good grasp of statistics and the PDO concept and that it doesn't work?
Click to expand...

I did statistics as part of my Economics degree course at Cambridge University. What that taught me was to have a healthy scepticism for stats and to look carefully at the underlying assumptions. I believe that the "complicated stats" as Scarra calls them, are seriously flawed and have limited application to football, especially when trying to predict the future.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

scaramanga said:
I don't know the book but I assume its title is based on one of my favourite explanations for why people see patterns that aren't there. I've heard Dilnot speak/read his interviews for a number of programs/papers and he's always interesting.
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It is. He is :)
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Pirate55 said:
Of course that is the easiest prediction to make in the world. It is like saying we won't continue to achieve 16 points from 18. If we did, we would win the PL at a canter!
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Quite - showing that factors other than Timmeh's/the team's abilities are at play in making up our results to date.

Pirate55 said:
What you or no one else could predict with any certainty is that we would DEFINITELY have regressed to mean under AvB. That is where a purely statistical analysis DOESN'T help predict the future.
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Actually I can. Everything with a random element will regress to the mean - there is a random element in results vs performance (otherwise every single person on this forum would have a perfect record in the prediction league), therefore our results vs performance would have regressed to mean.

Pirate55 said:
Regarding the spuriousness of the stats, do they take into account the QUALITY of the chance and do ALL shots on target get lumped together regardless of whether they are 35 yard daisy cutters or 6 yard open goal efforts? If not, who makes the distinction? What metric is their judgement based on? See what I mean by stats not exactly being based on facts but on someone's judgement call.
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All shots are included. I really don't think you'll find a team that has a large number of shots on target of poor quality in a skewingly large amount. Neither will you find the opposite. In fact, this metric and its defensive equivalent has been shown to be a very good predictor of results in the past.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm depressed. We spent a lot of money in the summer, but appear to have ended up with an inexperienced (albeit promising) manager and a bit of a dysfunctional squad, some perhaps not the quality we want, too many players in similar positions, some misfiring, a few positions neglected and so on. And now it's a very slow transfer window, when we probably need to improve in some areas. I'm beginning to think we missed one of our greatest opportunities to become a consistent top four team...

It's all depressingly familiar territory for anyone who has followed Spurs for a (long) while. Anybody got any crumbs of comfort, before I take to drink or find myself wandering into the blizzard mumbling "I'm just going outside, I may be some time."...
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

ringo said:
I'm depressed. We spent a lot of money in the summer, but appear to have ended up with an inexperienced (albeit promising) manager and a bit of a dysfunctional squad, some perhaps not the quality we want, too many players in similar positions, some misfiring, a few positions neglected and so on. And now it's a very slow transfer window, when we probably need to improve in some areas. I'm beginning to think we missed one of our greatest opportunities to become a consistent top four team...

It's all depressingly familiar territory for anyone who has followed Spurs for a (long) while. Anybody got any crumbs of comfort, before I take to drink or find myself wandering into the blizzard mumbling "I'm just going outside, I may be some time."...
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We have one of the strongest squads we've had in a very, very, long time. Although we're missing that attacking top class superstar we have several very promising young attacking players with potential to become truly special players.

The problem has been that despite this strong squad, we've struggled to put out a properly balanced team. Despite this we almost managed to keep up with our rivals for 4th. Now that our team on the pitch is starting to look stronger we have caught up. We still have a lot of unfulfilled potential in our squad and our team, this could make for a very entertaining second half of the season.

People have talked of missing that one oh so great, oh so vital chance to become a consistent top four team since lasagna-gate and before. New chances seem to be presented to us, all we have to do is take one.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

scaramanga said:
Actually I can. Everything with a random element will regress to the mean - there is a random element in results vs performance (otherwise every single person on this forum would have a perfect record in the prediction league), therefore our results vs performance would have regressed to mean.
Click to expand...

Have you shown that the mean for football will be very close to similar for all teams?

How much of a difference between say 95 and 105 would make in terms of points for a team across a season?

We both seem to agree that 130 is unsustainable, for us and probably all teams in the world. But could 105 be sustainable? Could 95 be the actual mean for some teams?
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

braineclipse said:
We have one of the strongest squads we've had in a very, very, long time. Although we're missing that attacking top class superstar we have several very promising young attacking players with potential to become truly special players.

The problem has been that despite this strong squad, we've struggled to put out a properly balanced team. Despite this we almost managed to keep up with our rivals for 4th. Now that our team on the pitch is starting to look stronger we have caught up. We still have a lot of unfulfilled potential in our squad and our team, this could make for a very entertaining second half of the season.

People have talked of missing that one oh so great, oh so vital chance to become a consistent top four team since lasagna-gate and before. New chances seem to be presented to us, all we have to do is take one.
Click to expand...

Thanks, my tent is feeling warmer already. Just had a bit of dark moment.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

ringo said:
I'm depressed. We spent a lot of money in the summer, but appear to have ended up with an inexperienced (albeit promising) manager and a bit of a dysfunctional squad, some perhaps not the quality we want, too many players in similar positions, some misfiring, a few positions neglected and so on. And now it's a very slow transfer window, when we probably need to improve in some areas. I'm beginning to think we missed one of our greatest opportunities to become a consistent top four team...

It's all depressingly familiar territory for anyone who has followed Spurs for a (long) while. Anybody got any crumbs of comfort, before I take to drink or find myself wandering into the blizzard mumbling "I'm just going outside, I may be some time."...
Click to expand...


Don't be depressed Ringo, I say, let's be happy with our lot. We have a squad with the capabilities to challenge and we're within striking distance of the top positions , more so should we beat City on Wednesday night.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Pirate55 said:
Put me in the old fashioned phalanx too. I like my football to be enjoyable, entertaining and exciting. Sorry if that offends the stats phalanx.
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Just reading the last few pages of this thread, wow weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!! I agree with you, im enjoying some of the football were playing now, I didnt under AVB it was boring turgid football which could send a glass eye to sleep
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

The truth off the matter is as far as I'm concerned, is that AVB's 18 month tenure at the club we all love , was in fact, not the darkest period in our clubs history as some would have us believe and that Sherwood has shown us all, that he's more than capable of being a good manager of a premeirship club.

For some , the high line as a football tactic and possesion of the ball , i.e. more than five passes taken to get up field are now seen as crimes against humanity.

Personally, I prefer our opponents to park their bus rather than have a go at us like Palace recently did, but if Sherwood's teams in the next few games can show the futility of having a go at us , doing City for starters will be good, then I suspect we will all be very happy soon enough .

It's true, Sherwood and AVB have two differing approaches as shown in this video.:lol:

[video=youtube;gZ3JpuYVkhM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ3JpuYVkhM[/video]
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

ArnieArdiles said:
The truth off the matter is as far as I'm concerned, is that AVB's 18 month tenure at the club we all love , was in fact, not the darkest period in our clubs history as some would have us believe and that Sherwood has shown us all, that he's more than capable of being a good manager of a premeirship club.

For some , the high line as a football tactic and possesion of the ball , i.e. more than five passes taken to get up field are now seen as crimes against humanity.

Personally, I prefer our opponents to park their bus rather than have a go at us like Palace recently did, but if Sherwood's teams in the next few games can show the futility of having a go at us , doing City for starters will be good, then I suspect we will all be very happy soon enough .

It's true, Sherwood and AVB have two differing approaches as shown in this video.:lol:

[video=youtube;gZ3JpuYVkhM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ3JpuYVkhM[/video]
Click to expand...

Ha. Good.

OT - I spotted this one at the end of Teh Trunks vid. Funny. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dQ5lUJm9rvw
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

braineclipse said:
Have you shown that the mean for football will be very close to similar for all teams?

How much of a difference between say 95 and 105 would make in terms of points for a team across a season?

We both seem to agree that 130 is unsustainable, for us and probably all teams in the world. But could 105 be sustainable? Could 95 be the actual mean for some teams?
Click to expand...

I'm waiting on a bunch of data that someone has kindly offered to send me so I'll do the workings then - what I'm led to believe from those who have analysed the stats is that the spread is very small (smaller than you'd expect when you look at how much better City are than Palace).

What others have shown (following links from the linked article) is that there is certainly a strong regression to mean when you compare the PDO to SOTR.

So, making an assumption here, I believe you're asking would we have regressed to 1 in both cases? Almost certainly not, there's every possibility that AVB would have stuck at .95 and Timmeh will stick at 1.05. What I believe I can state pretty certainly is that we were and are outliers, and there's only one thing that ever happens to them....
 
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