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The Limp Struggle to Sneak into the top 4 2021/22

On the plus side, if we miss out on top 4 but manage to qualify for the Europa League, that's a much better competition these days than it used to be. I'd actually look forward to playing in it, whereas in the past it always felt like a burden.

I believe that a) we'd now go straight to the group stage, and b) if you manage to win your group you go straight to the last 16. And the worst 12 teams are no longer in it, as they're all in the Conference League.

(Of course I appreciate that even qualifying for the Europa is far from a given! And that missing out on top 4 would still be a big financial hit to us)
 
The next 3 games will indicate whether we Saturday was just a freak result. My instinct is that we're still not going to be consistent enough. 72 points I think will comfortably achieve 4th spot - this was always the magic number (as '40' is always quoted as survival threshold). In the last 3 seasons its been lower:
2019 Spurs 71
2020 Chelsea 66
2021 Chelsea 67

With the inconsistency of all the challengers this year I'd guess 69 would be enough - with 39 points already that would mean another 10 wins from remaining 15 games - as i highlighted in my blog post about winning streaks - https://www.glory-glory.co.uk/community/threads/blog-post-the-streak.11333/ every team that has finished in the Top 4 since 2011 has gone on at least one 4-game+ winning streak.

The last 2 weeks have demonstrated that we can be excellent both for a unique tactical test (Emirates Marketing Project) and also against Brighton but our flaws and weaknesses have been badly exposed too. Thus I think we will lack the consistency to accumulate enough points. My money would still be on Man United.

That said, i do think we should consider finishing 5th or 6th with a points tally of 64+ as progress and something to build on.
 
GPRD81 said:
The next 3 games will indicate whether we Saturday was just a freak result. My instinct is that we're still not going to be consistent enough. 72 points I think will comfortably achieve 4th spot - this was always the magic number (as '40' is always quoted as survival threshold). In the last 3 seasons its been lower:
2019 Spurs 71
2020 Chelsea 66
2021 Chelsea 67

With the inconsistency of all the challengers this year I'd guess 69 would be enough - with 39 points already that would mean another 10 wins from remaining 15 games - as i highlighted in my blog post about winning streaks - https://www.glory-glory.co.uk/community/threads/blog-post-the-streak.11333/ every team that has finished in the Top 4 since 2011 has gone on at least one 4-game+ winning streak.

The last 2 weeks have demonstrated that we can be excellent both for a unique tactical test (Emirates Marketing Project) and also against Brighton but our flaws and weaknesses have been badly exposed too. Thus I think we will lack the consistency to accumulate enough points. My money would still be on Man United.

That said, i do think we should consider finishing 5th or 6th with a points tally of 64+ as progress and something to build on.
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I think our flaws become apparent when we play dumb players all down one side

Saturday we had one player that’s not good on the ball in royal and we had Saturday Hojdjberg (but midweek Pierre)

keeping the ball when under pressure is key as it passing it smartly. You can’t do that with players like Sanchez and Moura because their instinct is to react rather than plan when they get the ball
 
elltrev said:
On the plus side, if we miss out on top 4 but manage to qualify for the Europa League, that's a much better competition these days than it used to be. I'd actually look forward to playing in it, whereas in the past it always felt like a burden.

I believe that a) we'd now go straight to the group stage, and b) if you manage to win your group you go straight to the last 16. And the worst 12 teams are no longer in it, as they're all in the Conference League.

(Of course I appreciate that even qualifying for the Europa is far from a given! And that missing out on top 4 would still be a big financial hit to us)
Click to expand...

Without wanting to take this thread in another direction, the problm with the EL is also the distraction that it causes from the league, whereas without it we would have a much better shot at qualifying for the CL the next year. That said, the EL would represent a realistic trophy target, so it partly depends on what our goals are

That said, we can't pick and choose whether we're in the EL or not (we won't opt out of it, and won't throw games to avoid it), so its really a pointless debate!!
 
GPRD81 said:
That said, i do think we should consider finishing 5th or 6th with a points tally of 64+ as progress and something to build on.
Click to expand...

Certainly. I do think we still have a decent shot at 4th, or certainly roughly as much as Man U and Arse. I can't believe Wolves form will continue til the end of the season so it really depends on which of the other teams clicks. I'm hoping we continue with a similarl line-up to the weekend (plus Skipp and Reggie)
 
elltrev said:
On the plus side, if we miss out on top 4 but manage to qualify for the Europa League, that's a much better competition these days than it used to be. I'd actually look forward to playing in it, whereas in the past it always felt like a burden.

I believe that a) we'd now go straight to the group stage, and b) if you manage to win your group you go straight to the last 16. And the worst 12 teams are no longer in it, as they're all in the Conference League.

(Of course I appreciate that even qualifying for the Europa is far from a given! And that missing out on top 4 would still be a big financial hit to us)
Click to expand...
Lowering of expectations right there.....I like it :)
 
GPRD81 said:
The next 3 games will indicate whether we Saturday was just a freak result. My instinct is that we're still not going to be consistent enough. 72 points I think will comfortably achieve 4th spot - this was always the magic number (as '40' is always quoted as survival threshold). In the last 3 seasons its been lower:
2019 Spurs 71
2020 Chelsea 66
2021 Chelsea 67

With the inconsistency of all the challengers this year I'd guess 69 would be enough - with 39 points already that would mean another 10 wins from remaining 15 games - as i highlighted in my blog post about winning streaks - https://www.glory-glory.co.uk/community/threads/blog-post-the-streak.11333/ every team that has finished in the Top 4 since 2011 has gone on at least one 4-game+ winning streak.

The last 2 weeks have demonstrated that we can be excellent both for a unique tactical test (Emirates Marketing Project) and also against Brighton but our flaws and weaknesses have been badly exposed too. Thus I think we will lack the consistency to accumulate enough points. My money would still be on Man United.

That said, i do think we should consider finishing 5th or 6th with a points tally of 64+ as progress and something to build on.
Click to expand...
Europe starts back up for Man U and the Hammers...let's hope that distraction downgrades their chances.
 
People keep saying arsenal are the favourites for 4th spot. But they have a difficult run in.

Liverpool, chelsea, us, west ham, wolves, utd and southampton still to play.
 
Robbo said:
I would really like to feel optimistic again, but you jush know we will undo the three bonus points from yesterday with an inept performance against a team we're expected to beat comfortably.
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I'll just leave this one here.
 
Said it before the game this was a must win for top 4. Think we'll beat leeds on the weekend which might give a glimmer of hope. But think it's done.

Still got the fa cup though.
 
It's still possible, but we need to go on a great run til the season end, and also win the games against those around us.

Didnt see the game tonight but sounds like we were the better team in teh second half and a draw might have been a fairer result. And a draw tonight wouldnt have been a disaster IF we'd turned up against Southampton and Wolves

I'm not sure whether finishing 5th, 6th or 7th makes much difference, and neither will really help us sign players in the summer. Getting the right players in in the summer is as important for us as being in the CL, though obviously finishing 4th helps sign the players

I actually thnk we'd be embarrsed in the CL, even with a few signings, so perhaps it might be for the best to miss out. We do need a bloody good summer window though
 
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