Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
XG is useful ish...This is all true, but the extent to which players can be expected to outscore xG is relevant.
There are other factors. We attack more on the break, I think the Son goal vs. Arsenal is a bit harder to make happen against a settled back line, there would be at least some pressure from a defender most of the time.
The way we manage games means that we're perhaps less likely to rack up higher xG numbers after taking the lead, though I'm not sure about that one. It could also swing the other way as we prefer playing on the break.
The way we would manage games differently if we didn't take an early lead is also a factor.
It all adds up, but does it add up to Mourinho "cheating xG" by close to thirty goals over a season? That would surprise me, but it's not impossible I suppose. And the samole size is still relatively small.
That son goal cAn only be scored by a few players. For example you wouldn’t expect anyone from the arsenal team to score it currently
But quite a few players may have taken a shot from there which creates the XG...
I do agree with you that the way we play makes a difference to the XG numbers. West Ham for example had fans boasting only this week they have won the XG in all the big games they played despite only taking 1 point.