I actually think its better to play top teams in the weekends between European games. If you play a team who isnt playing in Europe then they have a clear advantage by having a week off to prepare and rest
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The Fight to Qualify for the European Conference League 2020/21
- Thread starter 90291Spur
- Start date
I actually think its better to play top teams in the weekends between European games. If you play a team who isnt playing in Europe then they have a clear advantage by having a week off to prepare and rest
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Yeah don’t disagree
It’s affects both sides so it’s helpful
I always look to see who has played and beaten the teams around them, then top half, then bottom half
It’s why I don’t get the Chelsea hype. they have not beaten one top team yet. Doesn’t make them a poor side but does mean there is something that hasn’t clicked in those BIG games
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
I definitely see how this kind of run can be a disadvantage. It's draining, and if we hadn't gotten results in these games it would have dented our confidence and going into another big game with dented confidence isn't a good thing.
On the other hand it's working out rather nicely. Obviously City, Chelsea and Arsenal aren't the same, but we've gotten the chance to play a similar style of football several weeks in a row. Work on things to improve for one game, instantly transferable to the next.
With results going our way we've been able to build confidence and belief game by game, that's been a big positive.
The games have all came during the group stages of the EL, so we've been able to rotate for those games, perhaps more than City and Chelsea could for the CL. This run during a period with tougher knockout fixtures in the EL would have been more difficult to manage.
It could have been a curse on our season, but so far the team (and some circumstances) has made it into a blessing.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Yeah i agree
This season we have had Europa qualifiers give us a pre season that we wouldn’t have got
And this horrible run actually working out ok so far
I do think our style of football suits the lack of time given between games currently
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
The only thing that we may not get the benefit from is home or away crowds on certain games by default
So for example by the time we play the arsenal they could have a full house of fans in...
but it is what it is
So for example by the time we play the arsenal they could have a full house of fans in...
but it is what it is
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I’d take a full Library over a full Klanfield any day of the week! We’re lucky they’ve only got a few in next week to pressure the referee into a dodgy pen!
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
That's a good point about playing a similar style a few weeks in a row.
I'd also say that playing in a super low block for a large part of a game probably really cuts down the amount of physical effort and distance covered by players in some positions. Although, conversely, intensely focussing on defending all the time might be mentally draining?
We would have played City Liverpool and Chelsea again by Feb 13th, before the knock out of the EL starts up again, a good thing imo. United Arsenal etc don't worry me.
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
Some interesting xG numbers floating around being written about. Decent article from the Athletic with a section on us with the headline "Tottenham's title charge will probably fade". We've outscored xG by 6 goals while conceding 3.2 goals fewer than xG would indicate. Son scoring 10 goals from an xG of 3.5 is also highlighted.
Not taking this as gospel, or saying that we will fade, but I think it's fair to say that we've picked up a few more points than our performances have warranted and that's reflected to some extent by the xG numbers.
I don't think "overperforming" to this extent in terms of xG over a season is likely at all. But at the same time the way we're managing games combined with the finishing skills of Son and Kane in particular I think overperforming to some extent compared to our xG is possible at least.
What will be interesting is to see how we manage to develop our play outside of the bigger games to create more chances, higher xG numbers, than we've seen so far.
Not taking this as gospel, or saying that we will fade, but I think it's fair to say that we've picked up a few more points than our performances have warranted and that's reflected to some extent by the xG numbers.
I don't think "overperforming" to this extent in terms of xG over a season is likely at all. But at the same time the way we're managing games combined with the finishing skills of Son and Kane in particular I think overperforming to some extent compared to our xG is possible at least.
What will be interesting is to see how we manage to develop our play outside of the bigger games to create more chances, higher xG numbers, than we've seen so far.
Where are they taking their xG numbers from?
The ones on Statsbomb use a lot more information than most - stage of play, position of defenders, position of keeper, height of the ball, etc. They don't tend to show teams playing on the break to be overachieving nearly as much as others' xG figures do.
Edit: Just checked and Statsbomb's figures bring it down to 5 and 2 respectively.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
But xG used average data with average players in a like for like situation
They talk about it in this week athletic Spurs pod cast
So for example son taking a shot is very different to aubemeyang. Yet xg doesn’t rightfully qualify the ability of the person taking the shot
I believe son has frequently out scored his xG stats since he really started here and here’s an article on it from last year
https://statsbomb.com/2019/02/son-heung-min-is-a-star/
And chance creation only matters with quality of chance and quality of execution surely
MKSpur
Christian Ziege
I think Liverpool exceeded their xG over the course of the season they won the league? Maybe exceeding xG is the new ‘title winning performance’?
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
The other thing that I think is missed with us is our bench has genuine variety on it to change things
When I look at other teams squad there is some depth but not variety
For instance we can bring on Vini as a striker abs target man or bale as a WF.. or Moura as a work horse forward. Or Lo Celso as a deep playmaker or WF or Number 8
When I look at other teams squad there is some depth but not variety
For instance we can bring on Vini as a striker abs target man or bale as a WF.. or Moura as a work horse forward. Or Lo Celso as a deep playmaker or WF or Number 8
MKSpur
Christian Ziege
Or davies and Rodon as 3rd and 4th centre back and maybe in the new year Lamela as chief brickhouser
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
It’s all options
I’ve said it before but our bench is obscenely good. It’s truly flexible for Jose and will allow him to change games
Just look at when Toby got injured we changed who we were bringing on. That’s real depth
Agreed, I haven't looked recently, but Kane & Son (and I would assume any elite level striker) have historically outperformed their xG
Put it my Jose post, Last Season pre lockdown, Last season after lockdown, Start of this season is all progressively better (less losses, more wins, more clean sheets, better PPG), nothing suggests we won't step in up some more in 2nd half of this season with the 7 players we bought being more integrated into the squad.
Kandi1977
Garth Crooks
Top level players "outperform" xG. That's why they are top players. the x is from an average, and top players, like Son, are anything but average. Its normal that the best players outperform the xG quite significantly.
Not nearly as much as their higher scoring numbers would suggest though.
Most of the difference between the best and the normal is that they get into better positions and take shots from better positions. Outperforming xG is the rest.
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
This essentially would be my reply to the above replies to my initial post.
Yes there are weaknesses in the xG that means it should be interpreted with caution.
Yes title winners in the past have outperformed xG. But by how much, and by how much is it realistic to expect us to do that now.
Taking the statsbomb numbers of 5.5 and 3 (from what I'm seeing). Extrapolating over a full season we'd end up with around +19 goals scored and -10 goals conceded compared to xG. That's probably possible, but to me very unlikely.
Which again means I think we most likely will have to improve our chance creation to maintain our points per game over the season.
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
This is all true, but the extent to which players can be expected to outscore xG is relevant.
There are other factors. We attack more on the break, I think the Son goal vs. Arsenal is a bit harder to make happen against a settled back line, there would be at least some pressure from a defender most of the time.
The way we manage games means that we're perhaps less likely to rack up higher xG numbers after taking the lead, though I'm not sure about that one. It could also swing the other way as we prefer playing on the break.
The way we would manage games differently if we didn't take an early lead is also a factor.
It all adds up, but does it add up to Mourinho "cheating xG" by close to thirty goals over a season? That would surprise me, but it's not impossible I suppose. And the samole size is still relatively small.