Politics, politics, politics

[SpurMeUp]

Youre whole argument is as if remain didnt even have a campaign, come on!

As for project fact - what facts are there? The only things that have actually happened so far are so blindingly obvious even I predicted most of them.

Until Brexit takes shape things are uncertain. Businesses/investors do not like uncertainty, reactions in this sector are entirely expected.

Otherwise, Milos endless tweets about companies leaving - how many actually have? And how many are just making threats and blowing hot air?

I recall being told that EU negotiations would be easy. One poster told me about he negotiates himself and how he'd give me his 101 on negotiating! The EU negotiations would be equal apparently we would hold 'equal cards'. Can we at least agree that this was incorrect?

It was argued that there wouldn't be an effect on the economy, that we'd even be better off as a result of Brexit. While we still don't know what Brexit will look like (!) the economy has suffered because people don't rate the UKs chances with any type of Brexit. Thus the UK has gone from one of the fastest growing developed economies to one of slowest. Levels of investment n the UK have nose dived. Inflation has increased and the Exchequer has less to spend, just when we should be emerging from austerity.

We are poorer as a result of the Brexit vote with things costing more in the shops, and foreign holidays more expensive due to a weaker pound. These are not opinions these are facts.

Land Rovers won't be made in Brum anymore. Production will be moved into the EU. Not hot air, a fact. Bank of America is moving some of its operations into the EU to Paris. Not hot air either. If full on brexit occurs I'm sure it will move more of its operations into the EU, as will most other investment banks. When I highlighted Zurich as an analogous banking hub that is no longer as pivotal as London, because its not in the EU, and that London would likewise lose out to Paris, I was told it was project fear. What is the cost of losing a massive chunk of financial services from London? Millions or billions to the UK Exchequer per year?

But you're right not much has happened yet, relative to what will happen if we are out the single market. So we should sit tight, continue without any positive plan of action, until we do lose significant jobs? Or should we act now?

 

[SpurMeUp]

This was interesting. No one can figure out where Aaron Banks made his money. He's either been gifted sums/assets or been doing dodgy deals, or both.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/how-did-arron-banks-afford-brexit

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

This was interesting. No one can figure out where Aaron Banks made his money from. He's either been gifted sums or assets or been doing dodgy deals, or both.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/how-did-arron-banks-afford-brexit

Really interesting stuff, thanks. Who on earth would have given him the money, though? You'd need to be a nation state to have that much cash to burn, and to have an interest in subverting other countries' democratic processes, and undermining the EU. No idea where to point the finger. Peru, maybe?

 

[parklane1]

"Guilty" for brexit. So you agree Brexit is perfection? Not something good?

Blair backed our US ally. In hindsight was it the wrong move? Of course. Neither action undermines the credentials of these individuals as logical and reasonably intelligent. Which is not something you would necessarily say about Boris, Gove and Farage.

1, Please do not try and put words into my mouth, Brexit is what the majority voted for because it was the best thing and despite your ramblings in this thread ( which have been proved wrong many times) you ignore that and keep re-hasing the same rubbish.

2, No what Blair did was bend over for Bush and got shafted after, it was a illegal war and he took us there on a lie. It made me laugh when remoaners were bragging about 100,000 people taking to the street the other W/E about not wanting Brexit as if it was a "show off the people" who were unstoppable, the fact is over a million took to the streets to try and stop us going to a illegal war and Blair ignored them and bent over for Bush again.

Youre whole argument is as if remain didnt even have a campaign, come on!

As for project fact - what facts are there? The only things that have actually happened so far are so blindingly obvious even I predicted most of them.

Until Brexit takes shape things are uncertain. Businesses/investors do not like uncertainty, reactions in this sector are entirely expected.

Otherwise, Milos endless tweets about companies leaving - how many actually have? And how many are just making threats and blowing hot air?

As i said project fear has got its second wind and re-hashing the same ( so called) fears they did when the vote went against them. NO one knows what will happen until we actually leave ( and that goes for both sides of the vote) and no one will until we leave.

Of course remain campaigned. But that doesn't take away from the fact that leave
1) had help from Russia
2) illigal overspent
3) used military grade propaganda and crusicially propaganda targeting
4) dismissed facts as project fear
5) were deliberately ambiguous about what leave will actually mean.
6) Used Nazi style imagery of 'invading hoards' to play on peoples fears
7) promised unicorn cum style swashbuckling trade deals that would not only take the place of the EU trade but better them.
8) invoked images of the war

I could go on... But I'm bored now, leave campaign was a horrific cluster fudge that conned people in to believing that they were doing the right thing for their country, when in fact they were doing the opposite.

What a lot of brick, are you getting treatment for your paranoia. Come on mate your better then that.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

Which political party had the brilliant idea of a Brexit vote again?

 

[StephenH]

NO one knows what will happen until we actually leave ( and that goes for both sides of the vote) and no one will until we leave.

So how can anybody vote for leave?

Or was it just a guess

 

[parklane1]

So how can anybody vote for leave?

Or was it just a guess

Because like a lot of elections over the last few years which has surprised the ' stuck in the muds" folks wanted a change from the same old brick.

 

[StephenH]

Because like a lot of elections over the last few years which has surprised the ' stuck in the muds" folks wanted a change from the same old brick.

So you just want change? I get that, but change though needs setting out coherently so we all know the options.
Well you are going to get that change all right, whatever guise that will finally take.
You may well have help hand control over to the grandees in the Tory party!
That doesn’t sound like something you would want.

 

[parklane1]

So you just want change?
Well you are going to get that all right.
You may have well have help hand control over to the grandees in the Tory party!
That doesn’t sound like something you would want.

Another one who must have a magic crystal ball. No one knows for sure anymore now then they did then that is why the same old scaremongering is coming out.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

The point wasn't that the EU is strong and secure it was that Brexit was made into a discussion around migration by those who wanted to manipulate a result, when actually the main function of the EU is trade - a customs union. Far from being Leeds United, the EU remains the largest free trade block in the world. Letting in the eastern nations was adventurous, and not without difficulty, but both us the UK and others wanted it for good reason.

Many on here predicted the imminent collapse of the EU around the time of the vote. What happened post vote? EU growth outstripped UK growth. The UK that had been one of the faster growing economies, sank to be one of the slowest. It is fair to say those predictions can now be deemed wrong. The EU hasn't collapsed as prophesied.

Should I be careful arguing Brexit is about economics first and foremost? No I don't think so. While to voters it may not be, its implications for the UK are primarily economic.

Is the EUs premise of free open trade among European countries fundamentally flawed? No not at all, all countries trade most with their neighbours and free trade creates wealth. The EU faces structural challenges but considering how young this enlarged customs union is, it is going relatively well. To say that the EU is not a powerhouse seems churlish. What do you base this upon? The EU has almost the same GDP as the US, who most would consider a powerhouse. Lots of assertions in your post, but its light on real facts.

I know what your point was, I was moving the conversation towards focussing on the single entity of 'the EU economy' and the merits of it. Of course its one of the most important things to discuss, that's why I'm discussing it

I see no facts (with figures) in your reply, so maybe you could kick things off?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I recall being told that EU negotiations would be easy. One poster told me about he negotiates himself and how he'd give me his 101 on negotiating! The EU negotiations would be equal apparently we would hold 'equal cards'. Can we at least agree that this was incorrect?

It was argued that there wouldn't be an effect on the economy, that we'd even be better off as a result of Brexit. While we still don't know what Brexit will look like (!) the economy has suffered because people don't rate the UKs chances with any type of Brexit. Thus the UK has gone from one of the fastest growing developed economies to one of slowest. Levels of investment n the UK have nose dived. Inflation has increased and the Exchequer has less to spend, just when we should be emerging from austerity.

We are poorer as a result of the Brexit vote with things costing more in the shops, and foreign holidays more expensive due to a weaker pound. These are not opinions these are facts.

Land Rovers won't be made in Brum anymore. Production will be moved into the EU. Not hot air, a fact. Bank of America is moving some of its operations into the EU to Paris. Not hot air either. If full on brexit occurs I'm sure it will move more of its operations into the EU, as will most other investment banks. When I highlighted Zurich as an analogous banking hub that is no longer as pivotal as London, because its not in the EU, and that London would likewise lose out to Paris, I was told it was project fear. What is the cost of losing a massive chunk of financial services from London? Millions or billions to the UK Exchequer per year?

But you're right not much has happened yet, relative to what will happen if we are out the single market. So we should sit tight, continue without any positive plan of action, until we do lose significant jobs? Or should we act now?

The EU negotiations SHOULD be easy. In a room of reasonable, responsible adults the outcome should be simple. It is in all interests to trade freely (or near as) to the benefit of all.

Instead what we have is weak leadership getting shafted by an EU that is in no way as liberal and altruistic as its fans like to think. It is petty and punitive.

And, frankly, its approach to these talks has only enforced my desire to leave.

I dont recall anyone saying the economy wouldnt be effected. I recall many people saying it would certainly be effected in the short term, but long term is unknown. It could well end up better/worse/same. This was in response to the like of you insisting only a downturn, and in rather dull fashion taking the expected immediate impact as indication of long term prospects.


The rest of your post, ifs buts and maybes. And that is the point. You take them as written in stone, they are not.

Which political party had the brilliant idea of a Brexit vote again?

Obviously the Tories made it happen, but whose idea was it? Genuine question. The Tories were split as many were supportive of UKIPs agenda. Corbyn clearly hates the EU. I actually have no idea whose idea it was originally.

 

[StephenH]

Another one who must have a magic crystal ball. No one knows for sure anymore now then they did then that is why the same old scaremongering is coming out.

No mate, no scaremongering from me.
I’m genuinely concerned by the bunch of hooray-henry’s heading up the the leave side.
They have cleverly high-jacked the discontent amongst some well meaning folk as a way to forward thier own right wing Tory agend. All disguised and away from many well meaning people under the guise the leave/Brexit campaign.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Isnt that just politcs of today? Opportunism based on self interest and no more?

Who, in the political establishment, really campaigned (in or out) for the betterment of the UK? As opposed to themselves?

And this is why I have no party affiliation. In essence, theyre all clams.

 

[StephenH]

This came to mind! Looking at the above!

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I dont disagree.

I also dont hold any of the others to a different standard, leave or remain.

Cameron, a devout remainer, set this whole thing up just to maintain power in his party - the selfish clam.

I would quite happily endure the worst of Brexit, the burning of the establishment, and the tear down of the "Im entitled" society we have today if it meant we actually got some genuine, meaningful progress from there on.

Politicians who genuinely represent the people.

People who arent such self obsessed assholes.

A realignment of priorities.


On which basis I would even prefer the full hard brexit approach, a complete cut off from the EU, rather than them having us over a barrel on some bastard Norway model.

 

[Baleforce]

My wife and I are giving serious thought to it too.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Isnt the point that, then, when more radical and meaningful characters appear we can remove the executive and vote for genuine change?


I still put very little stock in projections at this point, there is so little that is tangible the chances of them being worthy are slim to none.

I would be very sad to see that situation arise for you though. I find it hard to imagine it would, and if it did it would be a real tragedy. I could only suggest you dont just assume the worst of everyone, I cant imagine anybody wanting that to happen to you.

 

[SpurMeUp]

1, Please do not try and put words into my mouth, Brexit is what the majority voted for because it was the best thing and despite your ramblings in this thread ( which have been proved wrong many times) you ignore that and keep re-hasing the same rubbish.

Hold on, did I make you write “guilty” when you described Camron unleashing Brexit? I didn’t put words in your mouth they are your own.

Why not just say, yes it’s a been perfection and I hold Cameron responsible?

“Brexit is the best thing.” Really! Despite us still not knowing what it is, having any positive plan for it, and it costing the UK in jobs, investment and growth now. Hmmm more delusions.

I’ve always seen you as courageous. But it takes greater strength to admit you were wrong rather than glibly trying to hold your ground.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[milo]

I still put very little stock in projections at this point, there is so little that is tangible the chances of them being worthy are slim to none.

This is worth reading on that point

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/weather-is-not-climate-forecasting-the-impacts-of-brexit/

 

[SpurMeUp]

I know what your point was, I was moving the conversation towards focussing on the single entity of 'the EU economy' and the merits of it. Of course its one of the most important things to discuss, that's why I'm discussing it

I see no facts (with figures) in your reply, so maybe you could kick things off?

Fair play.

The GDP value of European Union represents 26.45 percent of the world economy. You'd still say its no powerhouse tho?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

Data compiled by Rebecca Driver of the consultancy Analytically Driven highlight a causal link between Britain’s greater openness to trade since 1973 and its subsequent specialisation in high productivity sectors, including finance, high-tech manufacturing and business services. Ms Driver said the 11 per cent of British companies that trade internationally are responsible for 60 per cent of the UKs productivity gains.


“These companies prefer large geographically concentrated markets with strong unified regulations,” she adds. “For the UK, that is the EU”. In other words, trade drives competition and growth. Since 1993, the UK has been the bloc’s top recipient of inward foreign direct investment, according to the UN.

—-

Academia, economists and simple logic show that having free trade with 500 million people helps the UK. Impairing that trade and losing any input into the terms of that trade is a bad thing.

Yes the UKs success has come at a cost. We’ve had migration which has put a strain on some communities and maybe we focus too much on wealth creation over society, but I believe both these things can be addressed by OUR government, it’s all too easy to blame the EU for all of our internal issues.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app