Politics, politics, politics

[r-u-s-x]

Where do you get that from. Its contrary to all economic modelling I've seen. If we buy a BMW in the UK under WTO hard brexit are you saying we would not face additional tariffs?

If the EU impose Tariffs on us it is likely we will then put Tariffs on EU goods but it is not mandatory. Tariffs are used to protect your domestic industry (push up prices on imports) and only in very few instances on exports.

Indecently it is very unlikely we will have zero tariffs but factually we are free to do so.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Yes, that's absolutely the case.

Someone should really tell these people http://europe.autonews.com/article/...omakers-see-no-way-around-post-brexit-tariffs and everyone else who can't see what you can.

@r-u-s-x is this article fake news or are tariffs under WTO, even softer Brexit a reality?

 

[r-u-s-x]

Someone should really tell these people http://europe.autonews.com/article/...omakers-see-no-way-around-post-brexit-tariffs and everyone else who can't see what you can.

@r-u-s-x is this article fake news or are tariffs under WTO, even softer Brexit a reality?

that does not refute what I have said, without an agreement under MFN the EU must impose their standard Tariff level to UK imports. Following this it is very likely that the UK would then impose the same, this is what the German automakers are fearing.

So not fake news just facts, unless there is something in the article I am missing. (are you just ignoring http://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/downloadfiles/gCT0212e.pdf ).

 

[scaramanga]

Someone should really tell these people http://europe.autonews.com/article/...omakers-see-no-way-around-post-brexit-tariffs and everyone else who can't see what you can.

@r-u-s-x is this article fake news or are tariffs under WTO, even softer Brexit a reality?

They're doing the same as the financial industry in the UK are. They're making a political point because they don't like change.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Where do you get that from. Its contrary to all economic modelling I've seen. If we buy a BMW in the UK under WTO hard brexit are you saying we would not face additional tariffs?

* I am guessing the modeling you have seen is based upon both parties using WTO rules (which is most likely) this is not the only option out there.

 

[SpurMeUp]

that does not refute what I have said, without an agreement under MFN the EU must impose their standard Tariff level to UK imports. Following this it is very likely that the UK would then impose the same, this is what the German automakers are fearing.

So not fake news just facts, unless there is something in the article I am missing. (are you just ignoring http://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/downloadfiles/gCT0212e.pdf ).

So the notion that there would be zero tariffs under WTO rules, and that we could chose to apply zero tariffs is incorrect because the EU under MFN terms would have to charge us on our exports to them. Also found this:

The House of Commons Library says that because the UK has negotiated as part of the EU at the WTO, it is likely that we will inherit the EU’s tariff regime when we leave. This would mean that UK consumers could face, higher prices, at least initially, when buying imports from the EU.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/

Basically, what we all knew already, WTO Brexit would amount to a tonne of tariffs and impair trade. No one wants it, it has always been a bluff that some tried to pull thinking the EU would jump into line with the UKs agenda. But the EU didn't. My original point: it wasn't the UK government's poor negotiation, but the economic reality, that has lead to the UK being in this position. I don't agree that 'Brexit could have worked if the government had implemented it right'.

 

[r-u-s-x]

So the notion that there would be zero tariffs under WTO rules, and that we could chose to apply zero tariffs is incorrect because the EU under MFN terms would have to charge us. Also found this:

The House of Commons Library says that because the UK has negotiated as part of the EU at the WTO, it is likely that we will inherit the EU’s tariff regime when we leave. This would mean that UK consumers could face, higher prices, at least initially, when buying imports from the EU.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/

Basically, what we all knew already, WTO Brexit would amount to a tonne of tariffs and impair trade. No one wants it, it has always been a bluff that some tried to pull thinking the EU would jump into line with the UKs agenda. But the EU didn't. My original point was it was the UK government's poor negotiation, but the economic reality, that have lead to the UK being in this position. I don't agree that 'Brexit could have worked if the government had implemented it right' angle.

No you are wrong - we could have this but this would only happen in Scara's free market dream, and again what you have posted does not dispute this. Again all throughout the argument is we could apply zero tariffs on imports under WTO rules which is correct, the EU however are free to charge their MFN rate.

I agree with the conclusion that WTF is a crap and will increase Tariffs, but the instance where we have no choice to impose tariffs is factually wrong.

 

[SpurMeUp]

No you are wrong - we could have this but this would only happen in Scara's free market dream, and again what you have posted does not dispute this. Again all throughout the argument is we could apply zero tariffs on imports under WTO rules which is correct, the EU however are free to charge their MFN rate.

Free should be 'have to charge', the EU has to charge tariffs on our exports to them under WTO.

Furthermore, as the UK doesn't have a WTO seat, the House of Commons believes it is 'likely' we would inherit the EU tariff terms ourselves when leaving the EU, meaning we'd all be charged extra on BMWs and any imports from the EU until the UK put in place its own tariffs once it has a seat at the WTO.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Free should be 'have to charge', the EU has to charge tariffs on our imports under WTO.

Furthermore, as the UK doesn't have a WTO seat, the House of Commons assumes that we would take on the EU tariffs, meaning we'd all be charged extra on BMWs ect until the UK put in place its own tariffs once it has a seat at the WTO.

mate you responded to "Imports will only cost more if we choose to apply tariffs" tarrifs will be applied by the EU on our Exports only, meaning BMWs would stay the same price. Right from the off if we didn't want to charge a Tariff we could as long as we did it for all, the EU WTC binding are maximums.

As I have said at the outset this would only happen in Scara's wet dream but it is an option open to us.

 

[SpurMeUp]

mate you responded to "Imports will only cost more if we choose to apply tariffs" tarrifs will be applied by the EU on our Exports only, meaning BMWs would stay the same price. Right from the off if we didn't want to charge a Tariff we could as long as we did it for all.

Edited above, I meant exports.

But as the UK doesn't have a WTO seat, the House of Commons believes it is 'likely' we would inherit the EU tariff terms ourselves when leaving the EU, meaning we'd all be charged extra on BMWs and any imports from the EU (until the UK put in place its own tariffs once it has a seat at the WTO).

 

[r-u-s-x]

Edited above, I meant exports.

But as the UK doesn't have a WTO seat, the House of Commons believes it is 'likely' we would inherit the EU tariff terms ourselves when leaving the EU, meaning we'd all be charged extra on BMWs and any imports from the EU (until the UK put in place its own tariffs once it has a seat at the WTO).

If you meant Exports you would be 100% correct but in every response we have said imports to the UK and you are talking about German Cars which are imports.

I googled your quote and got to this from the Director General of the WTO Roberto Azevedo which outlines exactly Scaras point.

Britain could opt to simply scrap all trade barriers, as some free market economists have advocated, and turn its economy into a duty-free state, but that was unlikely, Azevedo said. He suggested that a burden of great responsibility rested with UK voters regarding Britain’s future trade position and the wider economy.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/25/wto-eu-uk-consumers-trade-deals

 

[SpurMeUp]

Well it was fun figuring it out with you. We knew WTO was a clusterfuk scenario all along, now I know the details why. The Singapore model is advocated by a few individuals, but if we were a low tax, low regulation, low duty state like Singapore we'd undermine the EU and we wouldn't get an EU FTA. And most of our exports are to the EU. We'd also have no worker rights, few controls on pollution and answer to corporate powers and not people if we modeled the UK on Singapour.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

It was brilliant spin... a big part of a dishonest campaign.

It was Cameron and the government of the time that called it project fear, they started it. @milo who is the poster I have the most respect for on here on political matters even said at the time it was an own goal for them. I can not use quotes because it was watching on the news but I heard many from Cameron's government of the day and some on Labour side who called it project fear.

It was all about fear for them.

 

[DTA]

It was Cameron and the government of the time that called it project fear, they started it. @milo who is the poster I have the most respect for on here on political matters even said at the time it was an own goal for them. I can not use quotes because it was watching on the news but I heard many from Cameron's government of the day and some on Labour side who called it project fear.

It was all about fear for them.

How did they use It? I just can't get my head around why they would have thought it was a good idea?

Not sure how it was meant to be a positive?

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

How did they use It? I just can't get my head around why they would have thought it was a good idea?

Not sure how it was meant to be a positive?

They did though several times. Was a mistake bit like the leaves bus but it did happen.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Well it was fun figuring it out with you. We knew WTO was a clusterfuk scenario all along, now I know the details why. The Singapore model is advocated by a few individuals, but if we were a low tax, low regulation, low duty state like Singapore we'd undermine the EU and we wouldn't get an EU FTA. And most of our exports are to the EU. We'd also have no worker rights, few controls on pollution and answer to corporate powers and not people if we modeled the UK on Singapour.

That's a weird way of saying sorry I misunderstood.

They're doing the same as the financial industry in the UK are. They're making a political point because they don't like change.

It's very much an economics point in both regards, WTO rules would be bad for industries.

 

[scaramanga]

It's very much an economics point in both regards, WTO rules would be bad for industries.

Can't remember the precise wording right now, but imports under EU rules are determined as something like the place of last significant change.

Much as with the financial industry brass plating into the EU, a final stage assembly plant in the UK would alleviate those problems. Considering the volume of German cars sold here it would make sense.

They don't want to do it, just as Lloyd's don't want to because no matter how small the cost, it's greater than the cost of having your press officer complain about Brexit.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Can't remember the precise wording right now, but imports under EU rules are determined as something like the place of last significant change.

Much as with the financial industry brass plating into the EU, a final stage assembly plant in the UK would alleviate those problems. Considering the volume of German cars sold here it would make sense.

They don't want to do it, just as Lloyd's don't want to because no matter how small the cost, it's greater than the cost of having your press officer complain about Brexit.

Why would EU rues be relevant? they are worried about tit for tat restrictions that the UK would impose.

 

[scaramanga]

Why would EU rues be relevant? they are worried about tit for tat restrictions that the UK would impose.

My understanding of the UK position is that we will copy EU laws across to our own until we've updated them.

I'm assuming nothing changes on day one. I would still promote no tariffs at all - especially not for something as vital to the country as cars.

 

[r-u-s-x]

My understanding of the UK position is that we will copy EU laws across to our own until we've updated them.

I'm assuming nothing changes on day one. I would still promote no tariffs at all - especially not for something as vital to the country as cars.

I understand what you are saying regarding EU laws but the Car dudes were talking about the situation if there is no deal (after transition), their concern is not only day one- this would most likely revert to WTO rules meaning the EU would tariff our imports and we would very likely do the same back. so I reassert they have an economic worry rather than a political.

I know you promote no Tariffs but in all fairness I would expect the head of Mercedes to be more concerned with the likely hood of what May would do regarding Tariffs rather than yourself.

Not sure Tariffs on high end cars can be classified as vital, the situation I can see is tit-for-tat retaliations on a major EU export (assuming no FTA) and then a bilateral agreement with another luxury car exporter in order to get preferential terms on one of our exports. This is normally how these things happen, we wont offer no Tariffs if we don't get the same.