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Politics, politics, politics

The problem is the 'par' outside the EU is probably lower than our current par within it. We live in a world of global trade. Car firms, banks, services they need the EU market. They also need to have regulation parity - these are effectively tariffs too, ways of controlling trade with product regulations. Within the EU we can participate in setting the conditions of trade, outside we just conform and follow, or lose the trade.

Your post suggests that leaving the EU will pop the UK into a free state with no adverse effects at all. That's a leap of faith that ignores the challenges to our economy. Would be a bit like Spurs spending money we don't have on our next signing presuming someone in China will sign Sissoko: reckless, wishful thinking not dealing with reality.

Incidentally think Sissoko can play a part for us. He does have something. Unlike Brexit which offers so little it makes Sissoko look like Messi.


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Europe is only 15% of the world. Why trap ourselves into a small and declining corner? Being outside of the protectionist EU custom barrier will make us more competitive trading with the other 85% and vice versa.

Global Britain will of course need a period of reorientation, like happened the other way in 1973
 
Europe is only 15% of the world. Why trap ourselves into a small and declining corner? Being outside of the protectionist EU custom barrier will make us more competitive trading with the other 85% and vice versa.

Global Britain will of course need a period of reorientation, like happened the other way in 1973


What will 'reorientation' cost the UK? And what might it look like?

The EU is a customs union. It's only a barrier for those who are outside it, or those who don't have a trade deal.

It may 'only' be 15% of the world, but it's the most advanced area of the world - culturally and economically. More importantly it's on our door step. You're not suggesting that we will manufacture cars for sale in Asia or Africa are you? Or that our banks will be just as pivotal in global finance without being able to broker European deals? Or that our global accountancy and law firms will not miss free access to the whole of Europe?

"Global Britain will of course need a period of reorientation"

Reorientation is right! "Global"...less so. Within the EU the UK is prt of a global trading system, outside the EU it is us that is being protectionist! Withdrawing from free EU trade, and the various open trade deals that the EU has - open trade with the likes of Turkey, Canada etc. We are exiting freer trade, and hoping we'll be able to get it back again - but we have 55m odd consumers to negotiate with.

The uk also needs EU workers. Many businesses will be affected without them.

1) where do you think the new trade will come from? Why are we not accessing it now?

2) what do you think the reorientation will involve, and how long will it take?


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The EU is a customs union. It's only a barrier for those who are outside it, or those who don't have a trade deal.
That's patently false.

The EU enforces the use of tariffs for all members - so it enforces an increased cost on us for everything we choose to buy from outside the EU.
 
Right, back to this.

What do you think the best answer to being offered a contract you don't like is? To my knowledge, slavery is still illegal in the UK and nobody is being forced to work in conditions they don't like.

*Not* just walking away, in many cases, because it simply isn't feasible for a major proportion of workers in the job market - maybe even a majority of workers. Not everyone has the financial security or ability to reject a sub-par offer, and in some cases (looking at you, DWP), they can *definitely* be forced to accept a contract they hate because of the alternatives, which are devastating benefits sanctions and the spiralling depression, debt problems, arrears, food bank use, destitution and misery.

Again, you're looking at this from the viewpoint of people in demand, with in-demand skills. Such people almost never constitute the majority of any workforce except in historically unprecedented times with low labour availability and high employer demand (the Black Death, the Second World War and so on).

The extension of the time period for unfair dismissal claims is absolutely vital. It can take time to know if somebody is right for a job or not - certainly more than 12 months at the more strategic end of the employment chain.

It's absolutely vital that employers aren't stuck with unsuitable staff as it's rare they could ever afford to employ two people for one position.

That isn't the point being argued. Whether *employers* feel something is absolutely vital to their profitability isn't the concern of the unions - what *is* their concern is the erosion of their rights and abilities because of employers gaining powers over employees that they previously were denied, in more labor-friendly times.

In rare cases like Germany, employer-union relationships are productive and mutually reinforcing because management treats unions as partners (giving them seats on their boards and so on) and union workers in turn feel that their interests are inevitably their company's interests (and vice versa - the company's interests are inevitably theirs). In most of the world, though, employer-union relationships are essentially antagonistic - the employer seeks to employ the best labor possible at the lowest cost possible, and the unions aim to provide the worker with the most remunerations and rights possible, often to the detriment of the employer's aim of minimizing labor costs and risks.

In this case, the employers feeling the extension of the period of employment needed for unfair dismissal claims is natural and logical behaviour on their part - but that in no way impacts on the point that the unions and the British worker more broadly are *losing* rights and powers, and shouldn't voluntarily surrender more given those circumstances.

This is just an opinion, I know, but I don't think it is the place of businesses to prepare potential employees for the job market. As an employer I should be able to count on a university graduate being able to spell check their own CV (experience tells me I can't), to hold a conversation from across a desk with me (again, I can't), to have some basic level of problem solving and logic skills, etc. (again, I can't).

If there is something non-standard about how my company operates or a specialist skill then I expect to have to train people myself (not personally, obviously but at my expense). But if I'm looking for an accountancy or marketing graduate I expect them to be able to perform as an accountant or marketing type out of the box.

Well, if it's your opinion, it's difficult to objectively argue against. But I'll stick to mine, which is that businesses used to train the people they needed, and often fulfilled a valuable social role by doing so. Now, they don't, instead relying on universities to do it for them - hoping no doubt to pick up fully prepared employees for free. They have lost that social utility by privatizing profits but socializing costs in this manner. And, ultimately, if businesses can't argue for their utility to society in a way that doesn't refer to their own naked self-interest, then there is zero obligation on the part of society to accommodate their demands for more and more powers relative to their employees. With great power comes great responsibility - not *no* responsibility.

There's an argument to be made for the idea that businesses don't train anymore because employees don't stay anymore. I respect that argument, and it is something to consider. But that is a 'chicken-and-egg' conundrum - would employees stay if the company showed them loyalty, or do they show no loyalty because the company doesn't show them any?
 
Again, I think employers have the right to expect university leavers to be employable. Schools, colleges and universities are places of learning - that's their intent and sole reason for existence. Workplaces are for working - the clue is in the name.

The German system is closer to the system I'd prefer. I think I've mentioned on here before about a school where my wife used to teach - it is in a particularly rough area where many of the kids have never seen their parents work. Obesity is off the scale, university attendance is next to zero, standard sink estate expectations, etc.

That school got fed up of zoo keeping the less academic kids and started taking them out of lessons and training them as electricians, builders, etc. Taught them how to stay safe on building sites, how to write an invoice as a self-employed person, etc. Not only did the kids leaving that school have better prospects from that point, the results in the other classes improved too as teachers were able to focus on those more suited to academic achievement.

There's clearly a problem in how to select for grammar schools, and I don't know what the answer is to getting that right. What I am sure of is that it's our best chance of getting kids the most appropriate education we can.

Wait, you acknowledge that universities are places of learning - that they are built around that idea and fulfill their role as teachers first and foremost (even though that's not strictly speaking true - their foremost role is *research*, not teaching. Teaching comes second).

But then you say that they should prioritize making university leavers 'employable'? If workplaces are so different to universities, then where's the logic in asking universities to tailor themselves to workplaces when their primary function (as you stated) is to teach, not to train?

Universities are meant to make people think and analyse the world around them in various ways - the best of those people end up researching that world to further the sum total of all human knowledge. But, essentially, their role is to turn schoolchildren into thinking adults, and has been from the time the first eager scholars stepped across the threshold of the Universitas de Paris in the 12th century. The skills they pick up along the way make them suitable for employment - but, by and large, their practical/vocational training was once done by the companies and organizations they joined, as a historical continuation of the apprenticeship system and as a prelude to a career in higher management or otherwise away from the shop floor (again, in simpler, less universally-educated times). As mentioned above, that has changed, but not in a justified way, imo - and it isn't the university or the student's fault for that change.

The problems with schools are another matter entirely. I agree that there, it's a far more complicated socio-economic millieu that distinguishes overachievers from children held back by their surroundings, their peer group, their economic status or their innate ability. But the fundamental question that dogs preselecting students to pursue certain streams early on (as Germany does) is simply whether you're putting a child somewhere he or she won't succeed - who are you (or who am I) to make the judgement that a child isn't suited for one way of life, and by doing so railroad them into a career and a life that they might not end up enjoying or succeeding at?

In more opportunity-filled, socially-stable times, such questions wouldn't matter as much because someone could theoretically switch out of their educational stream and into another one without too much judgement or hardship as a result. We don't live in those times. And thus I don't think the German system is *unreservedly* the best, although *at least* it incentivizes companies to pay their share in terms of educating their own future employees.


Maybe that's the case at the top universities. I'm not running IBM or Google. Neither am I running a big 4 (is it 5 now?) accountancy firm.

At the end of the market where I have to shop (ex polys on the whole) kids can barely spell critical thinking, let alone enact it. They are entirely void of any logic skill or problem solving ability and not suitable for employment in the roles they are supposedly trained for.

Well, I can't speak for how disparate the standards at UK unis are, because it's outside my own personal experiences. I did my undergraduate and graduate degrees at the University of Toronto - and in Canada, there's a fairly level spread of reputation and instructional quality across universities. Your education won't drastically differ in, say, Thompson Rivers University (in British Columbia) when compared to what you'd get at U of T - same thing with colleges, which, while acknowledged as more vocationally-oriented than their public university counterparts, still provide broad-based educational levels outside of program-specific training certified at (mostly) public uni standards.

There are differences across programs, of course, in terms of employability. You can't employ an IR/social sciences/humanities grad as an engineer/programmer in most cases - you likely cannot employ an engineer/programmer as a doctor, or as an FSO (although there's an imbalance there - you *definitely* can't employ the former in roles meant for the latter, but you can *sometimes* employ the latter in roles meant for the former, something I once got a bit insecure about :p ).

But, overall, unis here aren't all that different - at least compared to what the ex-polytechnic/public uni divide sounds like based on my observational knowledge of education in the UK. Thus, I wouldn't know what the standard of kids you get applying to your company is like.

However, I will say this. Whatever their specialization, and however poorly they've been trained (and whatever the state of their skills), they are *still* more educated and capable on average than the generations that preceded them. This isn't an arguable fact - it's simply true by dint of the number of millennials with a university education of *any* kind relative to their forebears, and the generational changes in terms of technical literacy and schooling that accompanied the millennials (growing up as they did with access to computers and smartphones, and in a world which saw educational standards rise worldwide for two straight decades).
 
I don't refer to them as Generation Snowflake because they love polar bears or drive bricky hybrids, I do so because they (in my experience and that of many IoD members) feel they deserve before they've earned. They feel that a living is owed to them rather than being there for the taking. There's a very clear dislike of getting one's hands dirty (both literally and figuratively), and whilst it's not their fault, they've been brought up with undeservedly high expectations of remuneration and advancement.

It's a very difficult thing to put into words but the closest I can get is a lack of grit, a toughness that the workplace requires and rewards that they are not willing or able to bring about.

I don't blame them, and you say you don't - but then you evidently do blame them for lacking the 'grit', 'toughness' and 'willingness to get one's hands dirty' that they were explicitly told they wouldn't have to learn, because the world they were growing up in was becoming more fair, less antagonistic, more automated, more knowledge-based and more likely to give them (the millennials) a non-entry level job were they only to pursue a university education.

If they've been told that more education would be a shortcut to success then those telling them that were wrong. More/better education will just separate one candidate from the next. It's a minimum requirement that gets them through the door.

They were explicitly told that, though. I know I was, and I was at the older end of the age range for Millennials - I just don't think my particular circumstances apply universally because I was brought up in a cross-cultural milleu that encompassed very different South Asian and Western mentalities. But it's a wide-ranging, observable fact that the Millennials were told, without reservation, that a degree - *any* degree - would get them a comfortable position off the bat.

The goalposts shifted later. Much later. *Now*, they're being told that education is just the minimum requirement to get them onto the shop floor, so to speak - but when they were young, an awful lot of them were brought up by parents for whom the minimum entry level was a high-school education at best, and who couldn't wait to send their kids off to university so they could live better lives and have better jobs than they (the parents) could manage for themselves.

Again, not their fault that the job market reacted to their unprecedentedly high education levels by simply moving the minimums up a notch so that now an undergrad degree is the base requirement. Plus, it's not like they haven't adapted to that reality - roughly every third kid in university (iirc) now runs the rat race of unpaid internships to gain work experience, followed by paid work experience at minimum wage level, followed by an entry-level job in their area of choice. Many others do at least one of the three stages before trying to land their ideal career.

What more can you ask of them than that they work *unpaid* just to learn the ropes of this workplace that they're supposedly too soft and over-educated for?

There's nothing wrong with the yuppies of the 80s - they helped drag this country out of the mire.

I expected you'd hold that view. Suffice it to say, I disagree - the breakdown of British 'society' (as more than just a collection of atomised individuals, anyway) began with them. Incidentally, they also helped seal the demise of the old Conservative Party - the one that stood on the dual tent poles of patriotism and friendliness to business, which are now firmly opposed to each other in what is an irreversibly globalised world (whatever the Brexiteers and more extreme isolationists think) born out of the 1980's.

Despite the source, this is a really good article on why I don't trust them:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/22/when-did-britain-stop-being-a-nation-of-hedonists

You can't be ready to be a fully rounded grown up until you've properly enjoyed being young.

The article gives several possible reasons as to why the millennials don't drink, smoke or binge as much as Gen X and the yuppies did. The primary one that reappears in various forms is that they simply can't afford to anymore - drinking and smoking are increasingly expensive activities, and given that they are already almost 100% guaranteed to hit life landmarks (like owning a house or getting married) much later than their parents did (and in some cases, they will never meet them) because they simply don't have the income.... where's the money supposed to come from to get brickfaced and smoke like a chimney?

I'm sure they'd love to be 'fully rounded grown ups' in the sense you envision - even though I think it's a funny barometer (by your measurement, I became a 'fully rounded grown up' because I smoked like crazy, was constantly drunk and slept around a fair bit during my time at uni - yet, I can't exactly put those things on my resume ;) ). But they can't afford to - in essence, you're blaming them for being poor.
 
@scaramanga have you heard of Gary Vaynerchuk? I was watching some of his videos yesterday, there was one discussing the US election/politics, can't seem to find it again but will try and link you.

He's pretty crude in his presentation (and swears a lot), but especially in this particular vid, I think you'd appreciate his take on things, especially discussing the market and how to stay ahead of the game in employment.
 
What will 'reorientation' cost the UK? And what might it look like?

The EU is a customs union. It's only a barrier for those who are outside it, or those who don't have a trade deal.

It may 'only' be 15% of the world, but it's the most advanced area of the world - culturally and economically. More importantly it's on our door step. You're not suggesting that we will manufacture cars for sale in Asia or Africa are you? Or that our banks will be just as pivotal in global finance without being able to broker European deals? Or that our global accountancy and law firms will not miss free access to the whole of Europe?

"Global Britain will of course need a period of reorientation"

Reorientation is right! "Global"...less so. Within the EU the UK is prt of a global trading system, outside the EU it is us that is being protectionist! Withdrawing from free EU trade, and the various open trade deals that the EU has - open trade with the likes of Turkey, Canada etc. We are exiting freer trade, and hoping we'll be able to get it back again - but we have 55m odd consumers to negotiate with.

The uk also needs EU workers. Many businesses will be affected without them.

1) where do you think the new trade will come from? Why are we not accessing it now?

2) what do you think the reorientation will involve, and how long will it take?


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The customs union is a barrier on everything in and everything out. The whole purpose is to create an internal market at the expense of an external one.

Have you ever bought anything more than £17 from America or Asia? That c.20% customs tax that you have to go to the post depot to pay is the EU import tax.

So everything we buy from outside the EU has say a 20% mark-up put on it, and everything we sell to outside the EU similarly has an mark-up put on it. The whole purpose is to make people buy and sell from within, rather than without. It's whole purpose is to be protectionist.

One example - look at how expensive lamb has become compared to other meats. The reason for this is that the big lamb producers (China, Australia, New Zealand, India, Sudan, and Iran) are all outside the EU, so those imports get highly taxed.

Asia-Pacific and Africa should absolutely be our markets. Europe has been floundering for a long time now (largely due to EU structures), so associating ourselves with the dynamic, emerging economies would be a very sensible thing to do. This would though need to be part of a long overdue rebalancing of our economy - towards knowledge economy and advanced manufacturing
 
I don't have much in common with the American liberals/"progressives" and I am left-wing, I certainly don't feel I should be lumped in with them. That doesn't mean that the "Alt-Right" isn't a load of sh1t; even the term itself is, it's the Far Right same as it ever was.

Some people like to cry "freedom of speech!" when what they really want is the freedom to be racist, bigoted qunts. However, when they get called out as racist, bigoted qunts, they start crying and want everyone to shut up.


Yep, back in my day the dirty fascists were much tougher and when they spouted their hateful, divisive and bigoted crap, we gave em a good tacoting and by gum they took it. And then we tacoted them again and they a took that too, until they'd had enough and they trotted off back to the rocks they had crawled from under. Not like todays cry baby fascists.
 
The customs union is a barrier on everything in and everything out. The whole purpose is to create an internal market at the expense of an external one.

Have you ever bought anything more than £17 from America or Asia? That c.20% customs tax that you have to go to the post depot to pay is the EU import tax.

So everything we buy from outside the EU has say a 20% mark-up put on it, and everything we sell to outside the EU similarly has an mark-up put on it. The whole purpose is to make people buy and sell from within, rather than without. It's whole purpose is to be protectionist.

One example - look at how expensive lamb has become compared to other meats. The reason for this is that the big lamb producers (China, Australia, New Zealand, India, Sudan, and Iran) are all outside the EU, so those imports get highly taxed.

Asia-Pacific and Africa should absolutely be our markets. Europe has been floundering for a long time now (largely due to EU structures), so associating ourselves with the dynamic, emerging economies would be a very sensible thing to do. This would though need to be part of a long overdue rebalancing of our economy - towards knowledge economy and advanced manufacturing

I have never gone to a "post depot" - do you mean post office - to pay a 20% tax, have you? It's interesting to drill into these real life examples, what were you buring?

Postage costs across the Atlantic or further means that locally produced goods have a cost advantage as well as less environmental impact.

However, not only do you ignore the points and questions raises in the previous posts, your argument assumes we will enter a trading situation with zero tariffs. That seems pure fantasy. World Trade agreements have ready made tariffs, so that is where we start from. We don't exit into free trade. We exit into higher tariff trade! We just hope we will be able to negotiate freer trade.

By the way whats wrong with Welsh Lamb?
 
I have never gone to a "post depot" - do you mean post office - to pay a 20% tax, have you? It's interesting to drill into these real life examples, what were you buring?

Postage costs across the Atlantic or further means that locally produced goods have a cost advantage as well as less environmental impact.

However, not only do you ignore the points and questions raises in the previous posts, your argument assumes we will enter a trading situation with zero tariffs. That seems pure fantasy. World Trade agreements have ready made tariffs, so that is where we start from. We don't exit into free trade. We exit into higher tariff trade! We just hope we will be able to negotiate freer trade.

By the way whats wrong with Welsh Lamb?

Post depots are like the big sorting offices where you go and collect your parcels. It's a RM term: http://www.royalmail.com/depot-finder

If you buy say a £50 record through Discogs from America or Japan (or an R1 DVD from Amazon), you get a card through and have to go up and pay an extra £10 custom charge + handling fee to get your parcel released. But the same record from Italy or Greece doesn't attract that surcharge. That's a microcosm of the EU customs union.

Welsh lamb is great. The second best I ever tasted was in Ruthin. But there's obviously not enough of it to go round.

WTO tariffs are lower than EU ones, so we'd instantly have more advantageous terms with nearly all the rest of the world (though obviously worse with the EU countries)
 
Post depots are like the big sorting offices where you go and collect your parcels. It's a RM term: http://www.royalmail.com/depot-finder

If you buy say a £50 record through Discogs from America or Japan (or an R1 DVD from Amazon), you get a card through and have to go up and pay an extra £10 custom charge + handling fee to get your parcel released. But the same record from Italy or Greece doesn't attract that surcharge. That's a microcosm of the EU customs union.

Welsh lamb is great. The second best I ever tasted was in Ruthin. But there's obviously not enough of it to go round.

WTO tariffs are lower than EU ones, so we'd instantly have more advantageous terms with nearly all the rest of the world (though obviously worse with the EU countries)

So with the UK outside the EU, that record would incur a tariff if purchased from the closer Italy or France etc., and still incur a tariff from the US. Hardly progress.
 
1) where do you think the new trade will come from? Why are we not accessing it now?
I have a feeling it's because the EU stops us from accessing other markets... we aren't currently allowed to import tons of New Zealand lamb or butter for example as a result of current EU trade rules...
 
So with the UK outside the EU, that record would incur a tariff if purchased from the closer Italy or France etc., and still incur a tariff from the US. Hardly progress.

It incurs a much lesser tariff from America. The £17/22 euro starting rate is an EU imposition, so WTO terms probably come in higher too.
 
I have a feeling it's because the EU stops us from accessing other markets... we aren't currently allowed to import tons of New Zealand lamb or butter for example as a result of current EU trade rules...

Never a problem buying fro others, the question is where will we sell to, and why are we not selling to them now? What will open up post brexit that we can not access now?


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The suppliers get to raise their prices to just under that of everyone else plus a tariff. Not the way to drive efficiency into a market.

Better than undermining Welsh farmers with cheap imports that put them out of business, leaving the UK at the mercy of imports that could dry up (due to currency fluctuations, war etc etc). We need domestic food production. Free markets are not that fantastic if unattended and unmanaged, just look at the banks that we're now paying for as an example.


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Irrelevant


Even at WTO levels these tariffs will be smaller - most countries will want to supply us without tariffs.

Distance is irrelevant only if you don't care about 1) delivery costs - anything delivered by plane from the US will cost a lot more than by lorry from say France. 2) the environmental impact of transportation.

Buying post brexit won't be an issue. Selling UK goods and services is what should be a concern. As you're aware the uk already has a trade deficit.

We could well have a scenario where post brexit we pay more tariffs on trade than we do now!


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