Politics, politics, politics

[scaramanga]

Brexit is going to improve thing?
You are prepared to spend billions we dont have 'hoping' things will change.
You are all deluded.
Dont take my word for it just watch the first couple acts of Brexit unfold! Unfortunately or maybe fortunately many of us won't be around for the closing act "When the brick really hit the fan"
We need a new series of The thick of it! It would be wonderful.........

Why only the first couple of acts? Isn't that cherry picking?

Most people seem to be abreast of the fact that Brexit is likely to cause short term pain, but those who voted for it will accept that for long term gain.

 

[StephenH]

Why only the first couple of acts? Isn't that cherry picking?

Most people seem to be abreast of the fact that Brexit is likely to cause short term pain, but those who voted for it will accept that for long term gain.

Define "short term"?

Oh and *long term"

no guessing now!

 

[Gutter Boy]

Brexit is going to improve thing?
You are prepared to spend billions we dont have 'hoping' things will change.
You are all deluded.
Dont take my word for it just watch the first couple acts of Brexit unfold! Unfortunately or maybe fortunately many of us won't be around for the closing act "When the brick really hit the fan"
We need a new series of The thick of it! It would be wonderful.........

The EU is collapsing. Being the first out will protect us, just like not joining the Eurozone did

The government is borrowing to invest in infrastructure to make us more competitive globally. It's the kind of stimulus people have been crying out for for years (simple Keynesianism), but which Osborne was ideologically opposed to. And it's absolutely correctly being invested in infrastructure, to create organic growth, rather than frittering it away on public sector salaries and low wage subsidies.

Brexit may have revised short term growth forecasts, but we are still predicted to grow faster than most of the EU.

So it's spending billions we do have to make sure things get better

 

[Gutter Boy]

Define "short term"?

Oh and *long term"

no guessing now!

IMO I would say 5 years is the kind of timescale before we start reaping the benefits. It maybe sooner if we can get a nice range of trade arrangements with other parts of the world lined up ready to sign when we are allowed to on 1 April 2019. Considering the economy has been poor (although better than most) for the last 8 years, that's quite palatable

 

[Glenda's Legs]

IMO I would say 5 years is the kind of timescale before we start reaping the benefits. It maybe sooner if we can get a nice range of trade arrangements with other parts of the world lined up ready to sign when we are allowed to on 1 April 2019. Considering the economy has been poor (although better than most) for the last 8 years, that's quite palatable

Are we allowed to prepare by negotiating our own trade deals during the 2 year exit-process? (Sorry if that question has already been dealt with in here, but I can't remember).

 

[the dza]

Are we allowed to prepare by negotiating our own trade deals during the 2 year exit-process? (Sorry if that question has already been dealt with in here, but I can't remember).

IIRC, we aren't allowed to negotiate any bi-lateral trade agreements until we have actually left the EU. Triggering Article 50, with the subsequent exit process, doesn't count as having left the EU. I think, anyway...

 

[Glenda's Legs]

IIRC, we aren't allowed to negotiate any bi-lateral trade agreements until we have actually left the EU. Triggering Article 50, with the subsequent exit process, doesn't count as having left the EU. I think, anyway...

Thanks. That's what I had thought, but wasn't sure. I could look it up I suppose, but will probably get conflicting answers.

 

[scaramanga]

Define "short term"?

Oh and *long term"

no guessing now!

For me, short term is any period irrelevant to my investments (house, stock, pensions).

So that means about 5 years, in some cases up to 10.

Long term would be at or around my retirement age, so about 15-20 years.

 

[scaramanga]

IIRC, we aren't allowed to negotiate any bi-lateral trade agreements until we have actually left the EU. Triggering Article 50, with the subsequent exit process, doesn't count as having left the EU. I think, anyway...

Thanks. That's what I had thought, but wasn't sure. I could look it up I suppose, but will probably get conflicting answers.

Although, in reality, we have already started.

The EU just wants to stop us from building a strong hand before we sit down with them.

 

[the dza]

It might also be difficult for us to negotiate trade deals with other countries until those countries know our own terms with the EU.

 

[scaramanga]

It might also be difficult for us to negotiate trade deals with other countries until those countries know our own terms with the EU.

I think if they're trading with us for access to the EU then that would have to be under EU rules - they won't allow tariff-free trade to sneak into their little protectionist bubble via the back door.

We can easily negotiate terms of trade just between the UK and other countries though, as that will be the bulk of any deal.

 

[Robspur12]

Why only the first couple of acts? Isn't that cherry picking?

Most people seem to be abreast of the fact that Brexit is likely to cause short term pain, but those who voted for it will accept that for long term gain.

This is the thing though, some brexiters predicated their vote on 'short term pain long term gain." Being that political thinking is usually so short term I am not sure where the evidence for the long term gain comes from especially as we will have to make up 47% of our exports from elsewhere if we don't trade with the EU.

I was unlucky enough to catch Question Time last night. Now I have already said I really respect the arguments put forward by @Gutter Boy and @glorygloryeze on here and their willingness to engage sensibly in debate.

Many of the Leave voters on the show last night were not willing to engage in any sensible discussion. They kept shouting 'we want to Leave now' like school children seething with hatred. Much of this was about immigrants too. This is my biggest worry about Brexit. Many didn't actually care about harm to the country that may or may not occur. it wasn't a consideration. For many , it was a petulant stick 2 fingers up at the establishment and get the immigrants out vote. Democracy can also fail a country when decisions are based on anger.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Thanks. That's what I had thought, but wasn't sure. I could look it up I suppose, but will probably get conflicting answers.

I think it's the same as you can't speak with another club's player until you are given permission by their club. Yet personal terms and contracts tend to go through in about 2 minutes once that happens.

 

[Gutter Boy]

This is the thing though, some brexiters predicated their vote on 'short term pain long term gain." Being that political thinking is usually so short term I am not sure where the evidence for the long term gain comes from especially as we will have to make up 47% of our exports from elsewhere if we don't trade with the EU.

I was unlucky enough to catch Question Time last night. Now I have already said I really respect the arguments put forward by @Gutter Boy and @glorygloryeze on here and their willingness to engage sensibly in debate.

Many of the Leave voters on the show last night were not willing to engage in any sensible discussion. They kept shouting 'we want to Leave now' like school children seething with hatred. Much of this was about immigrants too. This is my biggest worry about Brexit. Many didn't actually care about harm to the country that may or may not occur. it wasn't a consideration. For many , it was a petulant stick 2 fingers up at the establishment and get the immigrants out vote. Democracy can also fail a country when decisions are based on anger.

We won't lose 47% of our exports. The buyer will just have to pay the EU's 3-4% tariff on them. The difference is agriculture, which has an 18% IIRC tariff. But I don't think we export all that much of that, other than weird-looking seafood that British people won't eat. But we also can get rid of/reduce those tariffs for the rest of the world. Those hefty customs fees when you buy stuff on the internet more than £17 from the US/Far East and the business equivalents.

The Tories are lucky that they'll win the next election whatever happens (other than if they shirk Brexiting). Even if Corbyn is toppled/chokes and dies on his quinoa, it will take them another term to rebuild credibility under a Smith/Howard before they find their next Blair/Cameron. So they can press on knowing the country will be a much better place by 2025 (although ironically for the Tories, they do worse electorally in prosperous times).

The Leave side did have to build a slightly unholy alliance to get over 50%. So there are reprobates in the church. Question Time brings out some of the worst, but equally the media do fish for them (QT has long been known as 'Jeremy Kyle with A Levels'). Channel 4 News is also notorious for seeking out the scummiest places in the most deprived areas and trying to portray the local pigeon-shouting drunks as representative.

The racist element is clearly totally unwelcome. But I do think there's a genuine underlying issue that they aren't able to rationalise/verbalise. Which is that big business has been free to import the sweatshops to undercut their labour, in the process absolving themselves of any responsibility to train the local population and be constructive partners in the communities they sit. The issue should never been with the incomers themselves, it's the industry that drives them that is unethical and so socially damaging.

 

[Robspur12]

We won't lose 47% of our exports. The buyer will just have to pay the EU's 3-4% tariff on them. The difference is agriculture, which has an 18% IIRC tariff. But I don't think we export all that much of that, other than weird-looking seafood that British people won't eat. But we also can get rid of/reduce those tariffs for the rest of the world. Those hefty customs fees when you buy stuff on the internet more than £17 from the US/Far East and the business equivalents.

The Tories are lucky that they'll win the next election whatever happens (other than if they shirk Brexiting). Even if Corbyn is toppled/chokes and dies on his quinoa, it will take them another term to rebuild credibility under a Smith/Howard before they find their next Blair/Cameron. So they can press on knowing the country will be a much better place by 2025 (although ironically for the Tories, they do worse electorally in prosperous times).

The Leave side did have to build a slightly unholy alliance to get over 50%. So there are reprobates in the church. Question Time brings out some of the worst, but equally the media do fish for them (QT has long been known as 'Jeremy Kyle with A Levels'). Channel 4 News is also notorious for seeking out the scummiest places in the most deprived areas and trying to portray the local pigeon-shouting drunks as representative.

The racist element is clearly totally unwelcome. But I do think there's a genuine underlying issue that they aren't able to rationalise/verbalise. Which is that big business has been free to import the sweatshops to undercut their labour, in the process absolving themselves of any responsibility to train the local population and be constructive partners in the communities they sit. The issue should never been with the incomers themselves, it's the industry that drives them that is unethical and so socially damaging.

Excellent post mate.

 

[scaramanga]

This is the thing though, some brexiters predicated their vote on 'short term pain long term gain."

I've yet to meet a single person who thinks or thought that.

Everyone I've spoken to falls into either the free market type who wants free trade with everyone and less government bloat or (as many of our lower-paid staff feel) the lower immigration camp.

Being that political thinking is usually so short term I am not sure where the evidence for the long term gain comes from especially as we will have to make up 47% of our exports from elsewhere if we don't trade with the EU.

I don't think even the most hard-nosed Eurotacos are suggesting there will be no trade with the EU.

I was unlucky enough to catch Question Time last night. Now I have already said I really respect the arguments put forward by @Gutter Boy and @glorygloryeze on here and their willingness to engage sensibly in debate.

Many of the Leave voters on the show last night were not willing to engage in any sensible discussion. They kept shouting 'we want to Leave now' like school children seething with hatred. Much of this was about immigrants too. This is my biggest worry about Brexit. Many didn't actually care about harm to the country that may or may not occur. it wasn't a consideration. For many , it was a petulant stick 2 fingers up at the establishment and get the immigrants out vote. Democracy can also fail a country when decisions are based on anger.

There's a filter there. How many level-headed people you know would want to be an audience member on a show where they have 8 seconds to air their political opinion?

Mainly they're the types that can fit their entire political view into an 8 second rant!

 

[milo]

Are we allowed to prepare by negotiating our own trade deals during the 2 year exit-process? (Sorry if that question has already been dealt with in here, but I can't remember).

We are allowed to negotiate them but not finalise them whilst we are still in the EU. The problem will be that we will not be able to negotiate decent terms until our trading position with the EU is settled.

I think that our negotiating position should be that we will not trigger Article 50 until we have an interim agreement in place. Anything less and they have us by the balls.

 

[milo]

Although, in reality, we have already started.

The EU just wants to stop us from building a strong hand before we sit down with them.

That's not really true. We got fobbed off in India and the same will happen elsewhere until our position with the EU is settled or we agree deals on bricky terms.

 

[milo]

We won't lose 47% of our exports. The buyer will just have to pay the EU's 3-4% tariff on them. The difference is agriculture, which has an 18% IIRC tariff. But I don't think we export all that much of that, other than weird-looking seafood that British people won't eat. But we also can get rid of/reduce those tariffs for the rest of the world. Those hefty customs fees when you buy stuff on the internet more than £17 from the US/Far East and the business equivalents.

The Tories are lucky that they'll win the next election whatever happens (other than if they shirk Brexiting). Even if Corbyn is toppled/chokes and dies on his quinoa, it will take them another term to rebuild credibility under a Smith/Howard before they find their next Blair/Cameron. So they can press on knowing the country will be a much better place by 2025 (although ironically for the Tories, they do worse electorally in prosperous times).

The Leave side did have to build a slightly unholy alliance to get over 50%. So there are reprobates in the church. Question Time brings out some of the worst, but equally the media do fish for them (QT has long been known as 'Jeremy Kyle with A Levels'). Channel 4 News is also notorious for seeking out the scummiest places in the most deprived areas and trying to portray the local pigeon-shouting drunks as representative.

The racist element is clearly totally unwelcome. But I do think there's a genuine underlying issue that they aren't able to rationalise/verbalise. Which is that big business has been free to import the sweatshops to undercut their labour, in the process absolving themselves of any responsibility to train the local population and be constructive partners in the communities they sit. The issue should never been with the incomers themselves, it's the industry that drives them that is unethical and so socially damaging.

I keep saying this but although tariffs will damage UK business, it is non-tarrif barriers that could potentially really damage our competitiveness.

Whilst there are other countries out there that we can trade with. If tariffs are not a barrier to trading with the EU after exit, you cannot really claim that tariffs are a barrier to British business trading with the rest of the world now. And the point about gravity with international trade also keeps getting overlooked.

 

[milo]

Anyway. Say what you like about Zac Goldsmith but he was behind just about the only two news stories that I have enjoyed this year.