Politics, politics, politics

[parklane1]

Mind games ...
Well not according to his father recently ...
I.m not 100% certain..about how to vote..how can you predict the future?
It would be great to have a Europe that worked together without a millionaire gravy train and a Democracy.

We are living in dangerous times more than
I have known at anytime in my life...and people have patio ate views..

Anyway they, us, have to remember it's their future and I fear overpopulation will strangle the countries resources
..it already is!
Anyway...who am I . Does my opinion really matter..just another pleb especially from those who will disagree with my views... Just another ignorant no nothing person!

You are being harsh on yourself mate, I think that the VAST majority of folks have no real clue how the CM really works ( its far to complicated for most people) and I include myself among that number. And I think that is one of the reasons that Cameron and his cronies are coming out with all these scare storys in the hope that it will frighten most into voting to stay in. And knowing the general mushroom thinking among a lot of voters he will get his way.

 

[milo]

You are being harsh on yourself mate, I think that the VAST majority of folks have no real clue how the CM really works ( its far to complicated for most people) and I include myself among that number. And I think that is one of the reasons that Cameron and his cronies are coming out with all these scare storys in the hope that it will frighten most into voting to stay in. And knowing the general mushroom thinking among a lot of voters he will get his way.

Scare stories are getting thrown around by both side. The leave campaign are blatantly lying about the chances of Turkey joining the EU in anything like the near future.

 

[parklane1]

Scare stories are getting thrown around by both side. The leave campaign are blatantly lying about the chances of Turkey joining the EU in anything like the near future.

Most of the scare stories are coming from Cameron and his cronies, I know all politicians lie but its a fairy tale at the moment. Or at least it is to those who are undecided.

 

[milo]

Most of the scare stories are coming from Cameron and his cronies, I know all politicians lie but its a fairy tale at the moment. Or at least it is to those who are undecided.

I think both campaigns have been equally bad. The central point of the leave campaign around the cost of the EU is a lie which they refuse to acknowledge, they are ramping up scare stories about immigration that they know are not true and when anyone says anything that they disagree with they attack the person rather than counter the argument.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Plus slower growth in the medium and long term and the likelihood that foreign companies who base themselves in the UK to get access to the EU would scale back investment or pull out.



Like the House of Lords?



The cost of our contribution towards the EU budget is half of this and we get far more back in trade and tax contributions from EU citizens living and working in the UK.



Debatable when you consider that we would have one (very probably soon to be two) land boarders with the EU and would lose the right to send back people seeking asylum back to the first EU country that they passed through. This also ignores the fact that non-EU immigration is currently higher than EU immigration. It also ignores the fact that any future trade deal with the EU would very likely be dependent on freedom of movement.



The primary causes of pressure on our public services are our ageing population and austerity. Leaving the EU would do nothing to alleviate either. We would also potentially lose the 10% of NHS staff who are from other EU countries. It also ignores the fact that EU nationals pay £25bn more in tax annually than they take out in benefits or use of public services.



We would still have an unelected upper chamber, we would still be covered by the European Court of Human Rights, UK judges would still set case law. This also completely ignores the numerous times that the ECJ has decided in our favour or that the UK government has got a better deal for us by pushing for new, or changes to, EU rules.



I am not clear how our membership of the EU meant that we turned our back on the Commonwealth. I think that it is also rather naive to believe that the Commonwealth could make up for the lost trade to the EU that exit would result in. Isn't it also telling that the governments of India, Australia and Canada have all come out in support of our continued membership of the EU?

There is nothing stopping us trading with the rest of the world now and in fact we do. What exit would do is make trade harder with our nearest and biggest market.



The arguments in favour of exit do not stack up. Does it not worry you that not a single independent body of note has come out in support of leaving the EU?

I've got some questions regarding some of the above:

1) Slower growth if the UK exits the EU: Isn't the UK heading for a crash anyway due to the housing bubble, general austerity and the lack of economic diversity (i.e. not enough being made as opposed to services, esp financial and consultancy being sold)? In fact, will the UK's main Economic flagship: the financial sevices sector, prosper no worse seeing as London is the main player AND the centre of the Englaih-speaking Economic bloc outside of North America?

2) House of Lords vs Unelected 'Eurocrats' in Brussels: is it better to be governed by an unelected authority that has a wider geographical/economic dominion than one who's dominion only covers the Kingdom/State that one officially lives and votes in?

3) If we leave the EU and thus have to contribute less to the EU budget, will we not make this up by tax returns from any migrants who continue to live and work in the UK? Also, are there ANY countries who receive LESS in trade and tax contributions from EU citizens than what they contribute to the EU budget? Or is the UK situation the same as every other member state?

4) When did non-EU immigration become higher than EU immigration? I was certain even a few years ago the opposite was being claimed and accepted by all?

5) What % of NHS Staff are non-UK or EU nationals? I know there have been major drives in the past to recruit nurses from countries like the Philippines, Doctors from India etc. Also, do immigrants from non-EU countries also pay more in tax annually than they take out in benefits and in the use of public services? If so, is the figure more or less than the £25bn surplus figure quotes for EU nationals?

6) What is wrong with being covered by European Human Rights law but having UK judges continue to set case law (as they are supposed to do) without having to have ECJ 'decide in the UK's favour'?

7) What 'Independent body' has come out in support of staying in the EU? Any that are listed, please list how 'Independent' they are in terms of NOT having any vested interests from an organisation point of view that would be gained by the UK staying in the EU. Obviously, government-linked organisations such as the Treasury or The Bank of England are except from being put forward.

 

[milo]

I've got some questions regarding some of the above:

1) Slower growth if the UK exits the EU: Isn't the UK heading for a crash anyway due to the housing bubble, general austerity and the lack of economic diversity (i.e. not enough being made as opposed to services, esp financial and consultancy being sold)? In fact, will the UK's main Economic flagship: the financial sevices sector, prosper no worse seeing as London is the main player AND the centre of the Englaih-speaking Economic bloc outside of North America?

I don't think that anyone knows when the next crash will come but nearly all economists are in agreement that Brexit would cause a severe shock to the UK economy.

The city would be particularly vulnerable because trade deals for the service sector are incredibly difficult to negotiate and it is unlikely that we would get passport for our financial sector to operate in the EU unless we agreed to freedom of movement and contributed towards the EU budget.

2) House of Lords vs Unelected 'Eurocrats' in Brussels: is it better to be governed by an unelected authority that has a wider geographical/economic dominion than one who's dominion only covers the Kingdom/State that one officially lives and votes in?

Personally, I would like to see greater democracy for both.

3) If we leave the EU and thus have to contribute less to the EU budget, will we not make this up by tax returns from any migrants who continue to live and work in the UK? Also, are there ANY countries who receive LESS in trade and tax contributions from EU citizens than what they contribute to the EU budget? Or is the UK situation the same as every other member state?

It is difficult to answer this with any certainty because the leave campaign has refused to provide any detail on what leave might look like. If we followed a Norway model then we would contribute roughly what we do now and still have freedom of movement.

Immigration has been beneficial to the UK economy and has improved our growth. The best case scenario for the UK economy post exit would see immigration continue at something similar to current level. Reduced immigration would further depress the UK economy.

I do not have figures for tax take from EU citizens in the other countries but I believe that nine of them have a higher proportion of foreign EU citizens than the UK.

4) When did non-EU immigration become higher than EU immigration? I was certain even a few years ago the opposite was being claimed and accepted by all?

I was referring to the latest figures published last week, I will try to find the historical data.

5) What % of NHS Staff are non-UK or EU nationals? I know there have been major drives in the past to recruit nurses from countries like the Philippines, Doctors from India etc. Also, do immigrants from non-EU countries also pay more in tax annually than they take out in benefits and in the use of public services? If so, is the figure more or less than the £25bn surplus figure quotes for EU nationals?

I cannot find the data where I got the ten percent figure from but I will continue looking. The chart below excludes temporary staff and GPs.

https://fullfact.org/health/immigration-and-nhs-how-many-staff-are-eu-and-commonwealth/

6) What is wrong with being covered by European Human Rights law but having UK judges continue to set case law (as they are supposed to do) without having to have ECJ 'decide in the UK's favour'?

Nothing

7) What 'Independent body' has come out in support of staying in the EU? Any that are listed, please list how 'Independent' they are in terms of NOT having any vested interests from an organisation point of view that would be gained by the UK staying in the EU. Obviously, government-linked organisations such as the Treasury or The Bank of England are except from being put forward.

London School of Economics, Institute for Fiscal Studies, UCL, International Monetary Fund, The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, OECD and the vast majority of economists

 

[glasgowspur]

For the first time in my life I've no idea how I'm going to vote.
If I thought we could change it if stay in, if I thought the uk would change I'd vote leave.

Just seems to me Europe is on a march to a soft liberalism that is unstoppable now.

 

[Bullet]

London School of Economics, Institute for Fiscal Studies, UCL, International Monetary Fund, The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, OECD and the vast majority of economists

Pfft, so what. I'm not listening. I'm going to listen to the views of 7 random people I've never met, on the internet. Nur.

 

[monkeybarry]

For the first time in my life I've no idea how I'm going to vote.
If I thought we could change it if stay in, if I thought the uk would change I'd vote leave.

Just seems to me Europe is on a march to a soft liberalism that is unstoppable now.

Exactly this
It's a cluster fudge either way

It's why I'll probably go "in"
Alternatively, I may just go "out".....to the pub.

 

[Grays_1890]

Cameron himself said we can live without being in EU (long video from a past conference, you can look it up)

He also supports Turkey joining the EU, something he currently denies

 

[Modric THFC]

The most interesting thing about this is the people on the left who voted for Corbyn (who have to be anti EU's build in neo liberal policies) are seemingly voting remain because they dont want be be seen as racist.

Frankie Boyle "The left saw what Europe did to Greece and despite that, they want to stay, like a Scout group on Jim’ll Fix It determined to still enjoy meeting Kim Wilde."

Paul Mason still coming out as remain somehow after writing this:

"The leftwing case for Brexit is strategic and clear. The EU is not – and cannot become – a democracy. Instead, it provides the most hospitable ecosystem in the developed world for rentier monopoly corporations, tax-dodging elites and organised crime. It has an executive so powerful it could crush the leftwing government of Greece; a legislature so weak that it cannot effectively determine laws or control its own civil service. A judiciary that, in the Laval and Viking judgments, subordinated workers’ right to strike to an employer’s right do business freely.

Its central bank is committed, by treaty, to favour deflation and stagnation over growth. State aid to stricken industries is prohibited. The austerity we deride in Britain as a political choice is, in fact, written into the EU treaty as a non-negotiable obligation. So are the economic principles of the Thatcher era. A Corbyn-led Labour government would have to implement its manifesto in defiance of EU law.

And the situation is getting worse. Europe’s leaders still do not know whether they will let Greece go bankrupt in June; they still have no workable plan to distribute the refugees Germany accepted last summer, and having signed a morally bankrupt deal with Turkey to return the refugees, there is now the prospect of that deal’s collapse. That means, if the reported demand by an unnamed Belgian minister to “push back or sink” migrant boats in the Aegean is activated, the hands of every citizen of the EU will be metaphorically on the tiller of the ship that does it. You may argue that Britain treats migrants just as badly. The difference is that in Britain I can replace the government, whereas in the EU, I cannot.

That’s the principled leftwing case for Brexit.

Now here’s the practical reason to ignore it. In two words: Boris Johnson. "


I think there will be load of people on the left who don't vote or come out for leave.

 

[Grays_1890]

The migrant crisis is one for the world, not just the UK, so for that reason I am out.

Even the most migrant happy person in the world would have to draw the line on how many migrants they accepted if they were PM, so what do you do? Discriminate against the first 10,000 or the last 10,000? whats the difference?

 

[Bullet]

The migrant crisis is one for the world, not just the UK, so for that reason I am out.

Even the most migrant happy person in the world would have to draw the line on how many migrants they accepted if they were PM, so what do you do? Discriminate against the first 10,000 or the last 10,000? whats the difference?

Easy. Make a ditch* about 3 metres wide and tell migrants they can stay if they can jump it. That way we only get the fit ones.




*Fill the ditch with dinosaurs, obviously.

 

[the dza]

The most interesting thing about this is the people on the left who voted for Corbyn (who have to be anti EU's build in neo liberal policies) are seemingly voting remain because they dont want be be seen as racist.

Frankie Boyle "The left saw what Europe did to Greece and despite that, they want to stay, like a Scout group on Jim’ll Fix It determined to still enjoy meeting Kim Wilde."

Paul Mason still coming out as remain somehow after writing this:

"The leftwing case for Brexit is strategic and clear. The EU is not – and cannot become – a democracy. Instead, it provides the most hospitable ecosystem in the developed world for rentier monopoly corporations, tax-dodging elites and organised crime. It has an executive so powerful it could crush the leftwing government of Greece; a legislature so weak that it cannot effectively determine laws or control its own civil service. A judiciary that, in the Laval and Viking judgments, subordinated workers’ right to strike to an employer’s right do business freely.

Its central bank is committed, by treaty, to favour deflation and stagnation over growth. State aid to stricken industries is prohibited. The austerity we deride in Britain as a political choice is, in fact, written into the EU treaty as a non-negotiable obligation. So are the economic principles of the Thatcher era. A Corbyn-led Labour government would have to implement its manifesto in defiance of EU law.

And the situation is getting worse. Europe’s leaders still do not know whether they will let Greece go bankrupt in June; they still have no workable plan to distribute the refugees Germany accepted last summer, and having signed a morally bankrupt deal with Turkey to return the refugees, there is now the prospect of that deal’s collapse. That means, if the reported demand by an unnamed Belgian minister to “push back or sink” migrant boats in the Aegean is activated, the hands of every citizen of the EU will be metaphorically on the tiller of the ship that does it. You may argue that Britain treats migrants just as badly. The difference is that in Britain I can replace the government, whereas in the EU, I cannot.

That’s the principled leftwing case for Brexit.

Now here’s the practical reason to ignore it. In two words: Boris Johnson. "


I think there will be load of people on the left who don't vote or come out for leave.

I voted for Corbyn and I'm voting to remain, but it has nothing to do with not wanting to be seen as racist. I'm voting to remain because I think in the longer-term, we are safer being part of a political union with our European neighbours (who we have been at war with throughout history). And as a second reason, I'm voting because I trust the EU more on workers rights than I trust a Tory government, particularly one led by qunts like Johnson, Gove and IDS.

I respect the opinions of those on the left who want to leave, but I don't think it is the best course of action right now.

 

[milo]

A decent video by Channel 4 News on the cost of the EU

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153787626711939

 

[Gutter Boy]

 

[milo]

This blog post is interesting. It is about the way that visual media are covering the views of economists on the impact of Brexit.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-media-and-brexit-redux.html

The blog is written by the Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University who was one of the economists who developed the five tests which kept us out of the Euro.

His blog is mainly about how the media covers economics and is generally an intersting and a good read.

 

[monkeybarry]

The most interesting thing about this is the people on the left who voted for Corbyn (who have to be anti EU's build in neo liberal policies) are seemingly voting remain because they dont want be be seen as racist.

Frankie Boyle "The left saw what Europe did to Greece and despite that, they want to stay, like a Scout group on Jim’ll Fix It determined to still enjoy meeting Kim Wilde."

Paul Mason still coming out as remain somehow after writing this:

"The leftwing case for Brexit is strategic and clear. The EU is not – and cannot become – a democracy. Instead, it provides the most hospitable ecosystem in the developed world for rentier monopoly corporations, tax-dodging elites and organised crime. It has an executive so powerful it could crush the leftwing government of Greece; a legislature so weak that it cannot effectively determine laws or control its own civil service. A judiciary that, in the Laval and Viking judgments, subordinated workers’ right to strike to an employer’s right do business freely.

Its central bank is committed, by treaty, to favour deflation and stagnation over growth. State aid to stricken industries is prohibited. The austerity we deride in Britain as a political choice is, in fact, written into the EU treaty as a non-negotiable obligation. So are the economic principles of the Thatcher era. A Corbyn-led Labour government would have to implement its manifesto in defiance of EU law.

And the situation is getting worse. Europe’s leaders still do not know whether they will let Greece go bankrupt in June; they still have no workable plan to distribute the refugees Germany accepted last summer, and having signed a morally bankrupt deal with Turkey to return the refugees, there is now the prospect of that deal’s collapse. That means, if the reported demand by an unnamed Belgian minister to “push back or sink” migrant boats in the Aegean is activated, the hands of every citizen of the EU will be metaphorically on the tiller of the ship that does it. You may argue that Britain treats migrants just as badly. The difference is that in Britain I can replace the government, whereas in the EU, I cannot.

That’s the principled leftwing case for Brexit.

Now here’s the practical reason to ignore it. In two words: Boris Johnson. "


I think there will be load of people on the left who don't vote or come out for leave.

Your post highlights the key point.
The EU is brick, everyone knows that.
But the UK on its own and at the sole mercy of UK politicians is more brick

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

I don't think that anyone knows when the next crash will come but nearly all economists are in agreement that Brexit would cause a severe shock to the UK economy.

The city would be particularly vulnerable because trade deals for the service sector are incredibly difficult to negotiate and it is unlikely that we would get passport for our financial sector to operate in the EU unless we agreed to freedom of movement and contributed towards the EU budget.



Personally, I would like to see greater democracy for both.



It is difficult to answer this with any certainty because the leave campaign has refused to provide any detail on what leave might look like. If we followed a Norway model then we would contribute roughly what we do now and still have freedom of movement.

Immigration has been beneficial to the UK economy and has improved our growth. The best case scenario for the UK economy post exit would see immigration continue at something similar to current level. Reduced immigration would further depress the UK economy.

I do not have figures for tax take from EU citizens in the other countries but I believe that nine of them have a higher proportion of foreign EU citizens than the UK.




I was referring to the latest figures published last week, I will try to find the historical data.



I cannot find the data where I got the ten percent figure from but I will continue looking. The chart below excludes temporary staff and GPs.

https://fullfact.org/health/immigration-and-nhs-how-many-staff-are-eu-and-commonwealth/



Nothing



London School of Economics, Institute for Fiscal Studies, UCL, International Monetary Fund, The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, OECD and the vast majority of economists

I notice that the Full Fact stats show permanent employees, of the few people I know working in the NHS tell me there are many temporary and agency staff.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

The debate is pointless, most people in Britain will be unhappy what ever way the vote goes. I personally want a European Economic Community for trade benefits but don't want a Federal Government. I don't think anybody envisaged the amount "new european" workers would be coming to Britain or the effect that civil unrest in the middle east would have on immigration. All good for companies that want to employ zero hour staff with little benefits and no long term help to many. Luckily I won't be here for a lot longer but I can only see years on uncertainty and worry for my children and grandchildren, but happily the top 5% will be ok.