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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Parklaner81 said:
No, we never held all the cards. But our hand was significantly damaged by the remainer games. That's my point.

I'd prefer a deal, yes. But again, in my view the chances of getting an acceptable one are slim - and again I'd suggest remainer manoeuvrings are a significant factor in that.
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I don’t think it was, I can’t get my head around the idea of no deal not being on the table harming us

1. The EU knows it’s a bluff - they have TVs and watch what we say.
2. It harms us more.
3. We will still have to negotiate with them, but at a weaker position

I’m going to assume you, like me are from the south?

I don’t think we will be impacted much by a no deal, poorer areas will be hammered.
 
Legohamster said:
People are that stupid, for a start they believe a man beaten by a dolphin in an election.

People think the Brexit party will sweep into power - I think they could possibly get a couple of seats.

Have a look at Twitter - it’s amusing if it wasn’t such a poor indictment of our educational system.

I can’t stand Swinson, I can’t stand the Lib Dem’s for the “gonad*s to Brexit” t shirts (however much I agree) as it adds to the hate filled country we have, as bad as the Bp MEPs turning the back on the anthem of the EU
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Have to disagree with you there mate, I would suggest those genuinely thinking any of the smaller parties are going to sweep into power are in the vast minority.

Echo chambers like Twitter (never used it) etc make the small numbers seem large.
 
Legohamster said:
I don’t think it was, I can’t get my head around the idea of no deal not being on the table harming us

1. The EU knows it’s a bluff - they have TVs and watch what we say.
2. It harms us more.
3. We will still have to negotiate with them, but at a weaker position

I’m going to assume you, like me are from the south?

I don’t think we will be impacted much by a no deal, poorer areas will be hammered.
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On the more general first point, Scara has dealt with this several times in this thread, far more succinctly than I could.

On the second point specifically - 'the EU knows it's a bluff' - are you sure about that? Under May you might've had a point, but with Johnson at the helm? I don't doubt for a minute he'd follow through on no-deal if he were able to. I don't think it's his no.1 aim, but I'm quite convinced he's not bluffing about it.

And just one further point on that (then I really must come off here :D) - think of the indirect, downside political risk of no-deal for the EU. Just assume for a minute it happens, and it isn't as bad as prophesised. That has some pretty massive potential implications for them...

So that's a little bit of my take on why ruling out no deal harms us.
 
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Legohamster said:
Valid points - I guess we will see soonish!

My money is on Jan. p
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Saw in The Sun earlier (so it must be true!) the SNP are now vocal about the vote of no confidence, installing Corbyn and having an immediate election.

Not sure quite how fast it can happen logistically, but Id wonder if your Jan guess could actually be a bit late!
 
Parklaner81 said:
On the more general first point, Scara has dealt with this several times in this thread, far more succinctly that I could.

On the second point specifically - 'the EU knows it's a bluff' - are you sure about that? Under May you might've had a point, but with Johnson at the helm? I don't doubt for a minute he'd follow through on no-deal if he were able to. I don't think it's his no.1 aim, but I'm quite convinced he's not bluffing about it.

And just one further point on that (then I really must come off here :D) - think of the indirect, downside political risk of no-deal for the EU. Just assume for a minute it happens, and it isn't as bad as prophesised. That has some pretty massive potential implications for them...

So that's a little bit of my take on why ruling out no deal harms us.
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100 percent they know it’s bluff, the man in charge (well i say in charge) ran on the leave side to for his gain - I don’t believe he is brexity enough to follow through with a no deal - it’s all a tactic to him to appeal to leave voters.

“I wanted to leave with no deal but I was stopped”

There is a reason he didn’t run against may.

Boris knows if it goes to brick he will go down as the worst Pm ever.

I agree - it is a risk for the EU - but I can’t see the upsides of a no deal and how it will benefit us (that’s why I voted remain) so I won’t agree there will be.
 
Legohamster said:
100 percent they know it’s bluff, the man in charge (well i say in charge) ran on the leave side to for his gain - I don’t believe he is brexity enough to follow through with a no deal - it’s all a tactic to him to appeal to leave voters.

“I wanted to leave with no deal but I was stopped”

Boris knows if it goes to brick he will go down as the worst Pm ever.

I agree - it is a risk for the EU - but I can’t see the upsides of a no deal and how it will benefit us (that’s why I voted remain) so I won’t agree there will be.
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We disagree fundamentally there, then. I have no doubt Johnson isn't bluffing.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Saw in The Sun earlier (so it must be true!) the SNP are now vocal about the vote of no confidence, installing Corbyn and having an immediate election.

Not sure quite how fast it can happen logistically, but Id wonder if your Jan guess could actually be a bit late!
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It’s all rather exciting isn’t it?

The reason I have gone for Jan is they won’t want a winter election - too many distraction and bad news in the papers - food banks at Xmas isn’t a good look and plays into Jezzas hands.
 
StephenH said:
you are far too clever for me, lost me!
Sound like a cracking rock album title.
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It was a play on Khrushchev's vision for 'Communism with sausages'. He thought people would get over Stalinism if they had a bit of meat, rather than the gruel of the previous 30 years. It's basically the idea that people will sacrifice concepts like civil liberties if they have material possessions like good food.
 
Legohamster said:
It’s all rather exciting isn’t it?

The reason I have gone for Jan is they won’t want a winter election - too many distraction and bad news in the papers - food banks at Xmas isn’t a good look and plays into Jezzas hands.
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This was what I saw in The Sun:

JEREMY Corbyn could be installed as a caretaker PM to wreck Brexit as early as next week under SNP plans.

The Scottish National Party are prepared to let the lefie Labour boss walk into No10 so he could extend Article 50 - because the party is worried Boris Johnson will find a way to push Britain out of the EU without a deal.

The PM has vowed to deliver Brexit on October 31 no matter what - despite a law which was passed saying he would have to seek a delay if he couldn't get a deal.

SNP boss Nicola Sturgeon said this morning: "VONC (Vote of No Confidence), opposition unites around someone for sole purpose of securing an extension, and then immediate general election.


"Nothing is risk free but leaving Johnson in post to force through no deal - or even a bad deal - seems like a terrible idea for me."

A senior SNP source close to the leadership told ITV's Robert Peston last night: "It is increasingly clear that we will have to install a new prime minister via a vote of no confidence, so that we can request a delay to Brexit and hold an election.

"The convention is absolutely clear that it is the leader of the opposition - in this case Jeremy Corbyn - who should become prime minister in those circumstances.

"Trying to find a compromise candidate, a national unity candidate, is too complicated, especially in the time we have. Whether people like it or not, the temporary prime minister has to be Corbyn."


And sources said the plot could be moved as early as next week.

Earlier this week the party's Westminster leader Ian Blackford suggested the party wouldn't be opposed to putting the leftie Labour boss in No10.

Asked on Radio 4's Today programme if he’d back the Labour leader to succeed Mr Johnson after a successful no-confidence vote, he said: "I'm less concerned about the individual. I think it is fair to say that, in such a scenario, the official leader of the Opposition is the first point of contact as far as that is concerned.

"But we are only talking about putting someone in place in order to call an election. On that basis, I wouldn't be opposed to that."

He tweeted last night: "We are facing someone that will stop at nothing. We need to take the keys of number 10 from him."


https://twitter.com/x/status/1177523509632913413



Im not clued up enough on the regular etiquette etc, but Id suggest these are exceptional times so the usual rules may not apply.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
This was what I saw in The Sun:

JEREMY Corbyn could be installed as a caretaker PM to wreck Brexit as early as next week under SNP plans.

The Scottish National Party are prepared to let the lefie Labour boss walk into No10 so he could extend Article 50 - because the party is worried Boris Johnson will find a way to push Britain out of the EU without a deal.

The PM has vowed to deliver Brexit on October 31 no matter what - despite a law which was passed saying he would have to seek a delay if he couldn't get a deal.

SNP boss Nicola Sturgeon said this morning: "VONC (Vote of No Confidence), opposition unites around someone for sole purpose of securing an extension, and then immediate general election.


"Nothing is risk free but leaving Johnson in post to force through no deal - or even a bad deal - seems like a terrible idea for me."

A senior SNP source close to the leadership told ITV's Robert Peston last night: "It is increasingly clear that we will have to install a new prime minister via a vote of no confidence, so that we can request a delay to Brexit and hold an election.

"The convention is absolutely clear that it is the leader of the opposition - in this case Jeremy Corbyn - who should become prime minister in those circumstances.

"Trying to find a compromise candidate, a national unity candidate, is too complicated, especially in the time we have. Whether people like it or not, the temporary prime minister has to be Corbyn."


And sources said the plot could be moved as early as next week.

Earlier this week the party's Westminster leader Ian Blackford suggested the party wouldn't be opposed to putting the leftie Labour boss in No10.

Asked on Radio 4's Today programme if he’d back the Labour leader to succeed Mr Johnson after a successful no-confidence vote, he said: "I'm less concerned about the individual. I think it is fair to say that, in such a scenario, the official leader of the Opposition is the first point of contact as far as that is concerned.

"But we are only talking about putting someone in place in order to call an election. On that basis, I wouldn't be opposed to that."

He tweeted last night: "We are facing someone that will stop at nothing. We need to take the keys of number 10 from him."


https://twitter.com/x/status/1177523509632913413



Im not clued up enough on the regular etiquette etc, but Id suggest these are exceptional times so the usual rules may not apply.
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As far as a I understand it they can vote for no confidence, win and then have a vote for the second largest party to take control - labour.

I’m sure it’s a bit more complex than that - but they would need the libs/independents to back them.

Boris taking the whip away from those 21 Tories really could be an issue for him.
 
Legohamster said:
As far as a I understand it they can vote for no confidence, win and then have a vote for the second largest party to take control - labour.

I’m sure it’s a bit more complex than that - but they would need the libs/independents to back them.

Boris taking the whip away from those 21 Tories really could be an issue for him.
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If Im reading it right, they would do so on the condition its so he can extend (assuming the EU will) and then call an immediate election, so its not a new government kind of situation.

Its what Corbyn was looking for wasnt it?
 
Rorschach said:
The NI backstop was an elegant enough solution to all the current impasses. The UK wide backstop, which is widely unpopular in the EU27, was a sop to May. A trap of her own making if you insist on viewing it as that.

All accounts did also include leaks from No10 , so I think on the face of it it is safe to say negotiations have not really progressed, as per Cumming's master plan.
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Leaks from No10 through the mouths of fervent Remainders.
 
No risk for the SNP really, Labour aren't really competition to them but if Lib Dems go for it then Tories can also campaign that a vote for the lib dems is a vote for Corbyn.
 
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